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Weather Guide Monday 3rd To Sunday 9th September 2012 (west Wales And The Midlands)

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TonyH

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[b]Headline: Mostly dry and warm with sunny spells[/b]

Some Summer...the wettest for 100 years for England and Wales overall -1912 being the wettest on record. Llanwnnen had a Summer rainfall total just short of 20 inches, so an exceptionally wet, dull and quite cool Summer. August has been the warmest month but this again tarnished by all the rain, over 6 inches falling at Llanwnnen. No spectacular heat all Summer really, Llanwnnen scraped 80f on the 10th August. Thunder occurred on just the 2 days over the Summer.
As for the Midlands, similarly poor, although with a brief hot spell at the end of July, and somewhat drier during August, with rainfall close to average only, with 2 inches or so here, and for the Summer as a whole not as wet as 2007, which was the wettest on record at Coventry with over 14 inches falling, and marginally wetter than 1912.

A very chilly night gave a ground frost for Friday morning here in west Wales, down to +2c here, although not quite as cold as the last day of August 2010 which dropped to +1c. Meteorological Autumn is here and so is the nice weather! No heatwave and not always sunny, but a generally fine and warm week ahead, and with hardly any rain. Depending on the positioning of the high there is a possibility that it could be very warm by the end of the week, bearing in mind that now we are into September even 20c is warm.

Sunday is quite a warm day with some sunshine breaking through after the drizzle this morning. Monday will be warmer with sunny spells, although perhaps turning more cloudy late in the day for west Wales as a weak front move in, maxima 21 - 24c, warmest for the Midlands. The remains of Hurricane Kirk over Iceland brings strong winds and rain to Scotland for Monday night, although pressure stays high enough in the south, so we get no more than a spot of rain or drizzle. The weak cold front bringing the chance of rain clears during Tuesday morning, leaving a dry, bright day, although with a cooler, fresher feel, maxima between 18 and 21c. High pressure then moves in slowly from the Atlantic, so that Wednesday through to the weekend should be dry with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures on Wednesday around the average so reaching 18 - 20c, this after a chilly start. Wednesday night also looks like being a cool one, down to as low as 4c in places, so not quite a ground frost.
[attachment=139437:brack1a fresher after cf Tue.gif][attachment=139438:Recm482 warm under R Mon.gif][attachment=139441:Rtavn662 dry fresher Tue.png][attachment=139439:brack2a cool H dry Wed.gif]

The high is centred over Wales and England, or at least close by to the south-west by Thursday, and remains near even into next weekend. A dry and warm picture for the end of the week, and there should be decent sunny spells. Differences between the models on the positioning of the high, but should the high get to our east which the ECM suggests, then Friday and Saturday would turn out very warm and fairly sunny, maxima between 22 and 25c. The warm and dry weather could also last for Sunday too, although an Atlantic low perhaps closing in by then.
[attachment=139442:brack4 warm sunny Thu.gif][attachment=139443:Recm962 H E and W Thu warm sunny.gif][attachment=139444:Rtavn1321 H just west Fri.png][attachment=139445:Rukm1441 fine and warm weekend.gif][attachment=139446:Recm1682 potentially very warm seekend.gif][attachment=139447:Rtavn1801 H still SW but dry fine weekend.png]
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