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Very Early First Look At Winter 2012/2013 Part 2

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Zenarcher

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At the [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4452-very-early-first-look-at-winter-20122013/"]start of August[/url] I posted a blog entry giving a forecast for the winter ahead now 30 days later it's time for an update.

[b]Rainfall Averages,[/b]

[b]October:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] Still looking average for the UK but Southern Scotland below average.[/font][/color]
[b]November:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] Below average for most of Ireland, Scotland and Northern England, elsewhere average.[/font][/color]
[b]December:[/b] Below average for Southern Scotland and South Eastern England, elsewhere average.
[b]January:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] Below average for most of the UK, mainly inland area's but average for the coasts.[/font][/color]
[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][b]February: [/b]Average for most but below for Southern England and Northern Ireland.[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][b]Changes in the last month: [/b]The CFS has changed from what looked like to be mainly average rainfall to below average for most of the winter.[/font][/color]

[b]Temperatures[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] still looking average for most of the winter but it looks like below average for South Eastern England during January and February.[/font][/color]

[b]Changes in the last month:[/b] Not much still saying average for most of the winter, the only change is colder temperatures for the South East.

[b]Current Long Range Outlook Based On CFS,[/b]

[b]October:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] First 2 weeks high pressure mainly in charge. Final 2 weeks more unsettled with some short cold spells from the North.[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][b]November:[/b] The entire month is completely dominated by high pressure so a very settled and dry month.[/font][/color]

[b]December:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] Another month completely dominated by high pressure but this time a Easterly is more likely so cold weather for the East and South.[/font][/color]

[b]January:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] This is now the third month running with high pressure still in charge although this time cold weather is less likely more mild temperatures. Another settled month.[/font][/color]

[b]February:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] In the first week we get a short lived Easterly giving us cold weather then for the rest of the month it turns even colder when a Northerly takes charge.[/font][/color]

[b]March:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] During the first 2 weeks we start off with a strong Easterly then it turns into another Northerly. For the rest of March high pressure takes charge again and turns into a very short lived Northerly to finish it all off.[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Some big changes in the forecast for this winter the CFS has gone from a winter similar to last year to now a much colder, drier and settled one. I will update this again at the end of September.[/font][/color]
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Lovely outlook there a high pressure dominated winter hopefully this is the case a repeat of 2010 / 2011 is most unwelcome

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Sunshine in winter would be great and to have some frost associated with high pressure cells would be nice too. But I seem to recall Gavin that December 2010 was one of the driest and sunniest on record and with the snow and clear visibility with the cold air, it really was a very bright month for many areas but I suppose the cold and snow aspect doesn't work for everyone though.

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Eh, probably? Up here, the peak of the snowfall was late November and the very start of December and a major snowfall on the 6th. After, nothing much in the way of fresh snowfall until the later in the month where there were a few days of snowfall. There were about 8 days of snowfall up here, on a par or even a bit below December 2009. But in terms of lying snow, December 2010 was probably record breaking but you would need to ask someone a little more experience than myself about Decembers' of the past such as 1981. Anyway, a winter or cold spell like we had in 2010/2011 is probably unlikely as that was a once in a 100year event, so a dry winter with more sunshine hours and less really dark, cloudy skies would be welcome aswell as some crisp conditions and a reasonable amount of snow spread out evenly through the 3 winter months with some accumilations and good moments in terms of snow events.

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December 2010 is the coldest winter ever in the UK since records began in 1910, it had a mean temperature of [color=#696969][font=sans-serif][size=3]-1°C. [/size][/font][/color][color=#696969][font=sans-serif][size=3]Wikipedia has more info on that winter [/size][/font][/color][url="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_2010%E2%80%932011_in_Great_Britain_and_Ireland"]http://en.wikipedia....n_and_Ireland[/url]

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