[center][b]The Biggest Weather Events Through The Winter And How They Were Forecast[/b][/center]

During the winter of 2011 into early 2012 we had some very active Atlantic storms this was due to a strong jet steam. The winter of 2011 and 2012 will not be remembered as a cold and snowy one but we did get some cold weather near the end.

[b]11[sup]th[/sup] September 'Hurricane Katia'[/b]

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The first low pressure system headed towards the British Isles much earlier than usual. I remember the GFS picked it up in FI but didn't know where the storm was going to go. The media caught onto it early and hyped it up with headlines like 'Hurricane to hit Britiain' etc. On September 9th the Met Office issued warnings for parts of the UK for strong winds. The highest wind speed recorded on low land was 81mph and on high ground 98mph. The storm caused damage across the UK with damage estimated to be around £100 million.

[center][b]25th November '[color=#000000][font=sans-serif][b][background=rgb(249, 249, 249)]Cyclone Xaver'[/background][/b][/font][/color][/b][/center]

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Although the storm did not directly hit the UK it did bring very strong winds, heavy rain and snow to Scotland. The Faroe Islands which are situated to the very far North of the UK saw the brunt of this storm with wind speeds of 120mph recorded and the pressure reached 944mb. It caused a large amount of damage there even in a place that is used to Atlantic storms. The storm was well forecast by the computer models which allowed plenty of time for warnings.

[center][b]8th December 'Hurricane Bawbag'[/b][/center]

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This is a storm where computer models struggled on. At first just a few days before it was due to hit Scotland nothing was picked up. The computer models eventually got the hang of things about 2 days before. The direct impact area was still unclear even the night before it struck. The official name of the storm was Friedhelm but people in Scotland called it 'Hurricane Bawbag'. This was the first proper serious storm to hit the UK so far. At the Cairngorm mountains the highest gust recorded was 165mph. It reached a low of 956mb and caused damage across Scotland. Bridges were shut, so were schools and workplaces.

The storm didn't just bring bad weather to Scotland, a 90mph gust was recorded in Ireland, and gusts between 70 to 80mph were reported in England and Wales.

Over 70 thousand people in Scotland were left without power for two days.

[center][b]11th December 'A serious storm appeared on the computer models but later the ECM came to the rescue'[/b][/center]

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[center][size=2]The UKMO model showed a 940mb storm.[/size][/center]

For a few days every weather model had been showing a severe storm hitting mainly Ireland, England and Wales. It caused a lot of concern for the Met Office and the members on Net Weather. On the 11th of December the ECM done its evening run which was watched by 100's it made the storm nearly vanish, it caused a big surprised many thought it was a fluke, later the other models agreed with the ECM, I believe it's one of the ECM's finest moments.

[center][b]13th December 'Cyclone Hergen'[/b][/center]

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Hergen was picked up early and well by the computer models. It reached a low of 945mb despite the low pressure it only caused wind gusts over 70mph due to the nature of the system. It did cause very large waves and icy conditions.

[center][b]3rd January 'Cyclone Ulli'[/b][/center]

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Another storm and the final severe one of the winter. It was picked up early by the computer models with the GFS handling it the best. On the 3rd of January very early in the morning the storm passed Northern Ireland bringing gusts over 100mph. It continued to deepen in pressure and move acorss central Scotland which is highly populated. In Edinburgh gusts over 100mph were recorded. 100's of thousands of people in Northern Ireland and Scotland were left with out power. Damage was also widespread.

[center][b]End of January to mid February 'Easterly'[/b][/center]

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After a very stormy start to the winter we saw our weather pattern finally change to something better. Weather models loved to tease us and annoy us with predicted the cold weather but by the end of January to around mid February we finally saw some sort of cold weather.