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Summer 2012 - Long Range Forecast V2.0 August 2012

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Robbie Garrett

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After a pretty successful July 2012 forecast.[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] [/font][/color][url="http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/316/entry-4429-summer-2012-long-range-forecast-v20-july-2012/"]forum.netweather.tv/blog/316/entry-4429-summer-2012-long-range-forecast-v20-july-2012/[/url]

[b]Here is August 2012.[/b]

[b]August 2012 [/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]- [/font][/color][color=#FF0000][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][b]Version 2.0[/b][/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]August is a tough month tough month to call, we have just gone through a fairly settled period down south, with very wet/damp weather in the northern half of the UK. Partly because the NAO has gone to a more neutral phase and the jetstream has headed NORTH.[/font][/color]


[img]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.fcst.gif[/img]




The NAO is increasingly looking likely to head into the same vain and territory as July 2012, the same could then be said about the weather for the last few months. However August may be slightly different.

[b]WEEK 1 - [/b]

It's looking higly likely that the first week of August 2012 will be a fairly wet and miserable one. Parts of the UK may see some exceptional rainfall. Minimum temperature across the UK 10-16*C with maxes anywhere between 16-22*C. Overall, temperatures will be below normal, with rainfall likely to be above average. Plenty of showers, perhaps thundery at times if the NAO heads into a more neutral state rather than a negative phase. Definately a lot cooler than recently.

[b]WEEK 2 -[/b]

With a fairly good chance in the second week of August the south receiving less rainfall and temperatures perhaps returning to near normal. There is the possibility of some longer-lasting dry spells across southern parts of the UK, with those further north receiving more rainfall.


[b]WEEK 3/WEEK 4 -[/b]

The south and east is perhaps most likely to see the best of any dry, bright, and at times warm weather. Some rain is likely in places, which may be heavy at times. A lengthy spell of hot weather for the UK is unlikely but this is where and when the forecast starts to meet a point of where if there is a pattern change, this is likely when it will occur.

With the NAO forecast for negative then back to a more neutral state as we head further into August, one can only say that the forecast depends deeply on the NAO and the combination and action of the Jetstream at this point.


[color=#ff0000]So expect an update further into August regarding the second half.[/color]



[b]Summary [/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]- [/font][/color][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][color=#ff0000][i]With the NAO state forecast to head into a more negative state, again going neutral - August will be a pretty tough month to forecast. Indications are that there may be a settled period, but not until after another unsettled spell. Enjoy!![/i][/color][/font]






[quote][b]AUGUST - [/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Version 1.1[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]August is a very long way away, but it looks like temperatures will be below average, as high pressure stays firm across Greenland prompting very unsettled conditions across the UK. There is obviously considerable uncertainty in this part of the long-range forecast due to the forseeable fact that the NAO state is very very hard to judge at this time.[/font][/color]

[b]Summary [/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]- [/font][/color][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][color=#FF0000][i]This could have been a month to watch a few weeks back, but the NAO state is causing some headaches for the models as they chop and change. [/i][/color][/font][/color][/quote]
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