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Weather Guide Monday 16th To Sunday 22nd July 2012 (west Wales And Central Midlands Specific)

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[b][b]Headline: Unsettled, more rain or showers at times, could be a dry weekend, quite cool.[/b][/b]

Another very unsettled and sometimes wet week just gone. For the Midlands it is turning into another very wet month, with over 3 inches already at Coventry, which is a little more than has fallen in usually wetter west wales. When the sunny intervals come along they feel warmer than they actually are, the highest reading of the week was just 19c here at Llanwnnen, which is barely up to the July average. Another unsettled week to come, perhaps not the really heavy rains of Summer thus far, and the promise of a largely dry end to the week and which should last into the weekend.

Monday will be a mostly cloudy, cool and rather windy day with rain or drizzle at times, some of this quite heavy in places. During Tuesday a warm front moves across introducing rather warm and humid air. Plenty of cloud for many parts, with a little light rain or drizzle, mainly for west Wales, it may well brighten in the Midlands in the afternoon which would see temperatures into the low 70's f or around 22c. A brisk south-west wind for Tuesday.
[attachment=137038:brack0 Mon rain.gif][attachment=137039:brack1 warm sector Tue.gif][attachment=137040:Recm482 warm sector Tue.gif][attachment=137041:Rtavn5417 warmest day Tue.png]

Low pressure crosses northern Britain on Wednesday with the associated fronts affecting Wales and the Midlands. A spell of rain for west wales in the morning and then for the Midlands in the afternoon, clearing to sunny intervals and showers, some heavy. Temperatures rather below the July average reaching 18 to 20c. More wet weather overnight Wednesday, which may prove enough for flooding over parts of Wales. A rather cool and showery day Thursday, these heavy with thunder in places, especially over the Midlands. Temperatures reaching just 18 to 20c again
[attachment=137042:brack3 rain or showers Wed windy.gif][attachment=137043:Rtavn721 rain and showers cool Wed.png][attachment=137044:Recm962 cool showery Thu.gif][attachment=137045:Rtavn10217 cool showery Thu.png]

A ridge of high pressure moves in from the west killiing off most of the showers, so Friday a mostly dry and bright day, if not especially warm, a gentle north-west breeze, and temperatures 19c at best. A chilly July night to follow, down as low as 5c in the countryside. The models were showing it to turn unsettled again over next weekend, however things are now showing signs of improving, so that the high pressure holds ground for Saturday at least. Hopefully then, another mostly dry day for Saturday, although temperatures still no great shakes, as we will be in a gentle but cool northerly drift of air. This cool air mass means another very cool night, perhaps a touch lower than on Friday night, as low as 4c and even with a touch of ground frost in favoured cold hollows first thing on Sunday- this is a long way off though. Still a ridge over the south for Sunday, but with a warm front bringing cloud and perhaps a little rain later, although this could stay a generally dry day too!
[attachment=137046:Rtavn1261 R Fri mostly dry.png][attachment=137047:Rukm1441 R just about dry Sat.gif][attachment=137048:Rtavn1501 dry fine Sat.png][attachment=137049:Recm1442 dry fine Sat.gif][attachment=137050:Recm1682 dry weekend poss.gif]
The Jet Stream is finally moving away north for late July for a long awaited taste of Summer!
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