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Weather Guide Monday 2nd To Sunday 8th July 2012 (west Wales And Central Midlands Specific)

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TonyH

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[b]Headline: Unsettled again; further rain and heavy showers at times, localised flooding mid week onwards, often quite cool[/b]

June did manage to enter the records books as the wettest ever for England and Wales overall. Final totals:


Llanwnnen, Lampeter 218mm = probably the wettest ever June locally
Coventry, Bablake School over 140mm = not as wet as June 2007, but still well over twice the average

Severe thunderstorms affected parts of the Midlands on Thursday, with hailstones of up to three and a half inches diameter at Hinckley, Leicestershire, causing a lot of damage to cars and greenhouses - these were more akin to the super cells of the Mid-west! Parts of the Midlands had over an inch of rain fall in a couple of hours and resultant severe flooding, and there were tornadoes too. Nothing so dramatic for west Wales last week, where it has been the least wet week (I won't go as far as saying 'driest') since late May.

The unsettled, low pressure dominated theme continues relentlessly into July, next a slack low pressure takes up residence over the UK with further spells of rain and torrential downpours, so more localised flooding will occur. This feature is known as a 'cut off' low in weather buff circles, as it has became detached from the main jet stream, and due to areas of high pressure surrounding it, has nowhere really to go and so will be stuck over us! Some pleasant sunny intervals between times, and more especially later in the week, but never particularly warm.

Fronts from the next Atlantic system (and what will become our cut off low) already crossing Wales and England tonight with rain and drizzle at times, this lasting into Monday. A rather cloudy damp day, but perhaps brightening in places in the afternoon. Rather cool, maxima below 19c. Yet more fronts winding around the low that is edging towards Ireland on Tuesday, and which is looking like a thoroughly cool, wet and windy day. Some heavy rain about, especially for west Wales, and later the MIdlands. Another very unsettled day on Wednesday, and although more showery in nature, there will be some longer spells of rain in places too. At least some sunny intervals by Wednesday, although temperatures struggling to reach the July average of 19 to 21c.
[attachment=136229:brack0a unsettled Mon.gif][attachment=136230:brack1a rain wind cool Tues.gif][attachment=136232:Rtavn604 rather wet Tueday.png][attachment=136231:brack2a rain showers Wed.gif][attachment=136233:Recm722 rain showers mid week.gif]

Little change by Thursday, with the low likely to be slow moving over Ireland by this stage, so further heavy showers and longer spells of rain. Some places could well be seeing large rainfall totals building up once more, so expect floods to be featuring on the news again later in the week. On the cool side still too, with the wind coming around the low from the south- west and off the Atlantic. Late on Wednesday and Thursday could well see strong winds developing over the south- west of Wales too, so thoroughly unpleasant down there at times this week.
[attachment=136234:brack4 more rain showers Thu.gif]

Now for the end of the week, the models have been positioning the low variously over recent days, but the overall theme is for this same low system to be cut off over the UK even into next weekend. Odds seems to be that it will be sat over Wales and England next Friday and Saturday, so lighter winds by then, but this brings the problem of slow moving downpours developing within the low, and with thunderstorms again in places, therefore the risk of further localised flooding. At least with the lighter winds and sunny intervals between showers, a touch warmer, perhaps reaching 21c or 22c, especially for the Midlands, unless you happen to be stuck under persistent showers that is.
[attachment=136235:Recm1202 slack L SW Eng fri slow moving showers.gif][attachment=136236:Rtavn1321 further N perhaps.png][attachment=136237:Rukm1441 L over E and W next weekend slow moving showers.gif][attachment=136238:Recm1682 still there sunday.gif][attachment=136239:Rtavn1801 slack L UK Sun showery.png]
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