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Weather Guide Monday 25th June To Sunday 1st July 2012 For The Central Midlands And West Wales

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TonyH

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[b]Headline: Unsettled again; drier early week, rain and showers later. Warm and humid blip mid week.[/b]

April to June 2012 has already been the wettest ever for this three month period (records back to 1766) for England and Wales overall. June itself may fall a little short of being the wettest ever, although it is up there with the wettest June's for many places. Llanwnnen is currently on 198mm (8 inches), while Coventry has had 128mm so far.

In spite of a mainly dry, bright start to last week, the rains returned from Wednesday night, although with not quite as much as in recent excessively wet weeks. There has been an unfortunate lack of light and sunshine for this, the period of greatest day length, along with consistently cool temperatures, giving more of an Autumnal feel. Fields are permanently waterlogged, and rivers in spate as though it were Winter!

Perhaps a slight improvement in the weather again this week, better temperatures, even with a touch of warmth for a short while in the middle of the week, and a drying out process to mid week too, but the rain and showers are set to return, as low pressure is never far away from the British Isles, what with the Jet Stream continuing to be displaced to these low latitudes. Yet again, a week with the true arrival of Summer delayed. Chance of a thunderstorm in parts (most likely for the Midlands) during Thursday as the upcoming warm blip gives way.

Sunday afternoon is turning out mostly dry and bright with just a few showers dotted about. Monday too should be a generally dry and bright day and with light winds, temperatures close to average at 19-21c. During this first half of the week high pressure over France attempts to take control, but is not strong enough to prevent fronts moving across England and Wales that are connected to a low sat out on the Atlantic, well west of Ireland. The first of these weakish fronts brings more cloud for Tuesday and even a little rain and drizzle for Wales, but it should remain dry for the Midlands, and feeling quite warm again here. The next and warm front moves up on Tuesday night which introduces some warm, humid Tropical southerly air to Wales and England for the mid week period. After a warm sticky night, and some further rain for Wales for a while into early Wednesday, the day then brightens up with warm, sunny spells for many of us. Most parts then become dry with some sunshine Wednesday afternoon and just the chance of a few thundery showers about by the evening. Temperatures reaching 22 to 24c.
[attachment=135779:Rtavn601 H France L Atl Tue.png][attachment=135778:brack2 weak fronts warmer air Wed.gif][attachment=135780:brack2a warm humid Wed.gif][attachment=135781:Recm722 H France L Atl warm air arrives Wed.gif]

The low west of Ireland then pushes towards us during Thursday as the Continental high gives way, and with even warmer upper atmospheric air ahead of this, there is the potential for some heavy downpours and thunderstorms in places during Thursday. Probably too much cloud and general rain about for west Wales to appreciate the warm upper air temperatures, but the Midlands should see some sunny intervals and maxima as high as 25c perhaps, this warmth in turn triggering heavy downpours and thunderstorms for the latter part of the day. Perhaps no warmer than 22c though for cloudier west Wales. So a fair chance of a thunderstorm for the MIdlands by Thursday evening for those of us who appreciate such displays of nature. Meanwhile the real heat is over the south of France where 100F (38c) looks likely next Thursday!
[attachment=135782:brack4 turning thundery or wet Thur.gif][attachment=135783:Recm962 warm humid thundery potential Thu.gif][attachment=135784:Rtavn1022 thundery thu poss.png][attachment=135785:Rtavn1084 rain poss storms Thu pm.png][attachment=135786:Rtavn10817 100f S France.png]

The low is over northern Britain on Friday, so the winds have turned south-west with cooler Atlantic air once more, a day of sunny spells and showers. Temperatures down to near normal at around 19 or 20c with quite strong winds. As we reach July, next Sunday, unfortunately still no sign of Summer proper, with a rather cool and showery air-stream over the UK for next weekend.
[attachment=135787:Rtavn1262 fresher showery Fri.png][attachment=135788:Recm1442 cooler showery weekend.gif][attachment=135789:Rtavn1741 unsettled cool showery weekend.png]
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