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Summer 2012 - Long Range Forecast V2.0 July 2012

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Robbie Garrett

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[b]JULY 2012 [/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]- [/font][/color][color=#ff0000][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][b]Version 2.0[/b][/font][/color]

For the first week of July or so, low pressure looks set to continue across the UK. However as we enter the second wave of July, the NAO looks increasingly likely to go from a negative state to a more neutral state.


[url="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif"]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif[/url]

However not after a slight game of cat and mouse as it again heads into record negative territory. This could quickly be replaced by more wet weather, however it of course depends on the way NAO circulation is heading. But from a viewpoint it does look likely that any settled weather would be shortlived as we again head into Negative NAO.

The first half of July will likely see something more changeable with more rain than shine, however temperature will likely be close to the seasonal average, maybe a little below at times.

It might be a beat of a repeat as we head into the Olympics, with the Azores re-ridging across the UK but quickly displaced back to where she came. Unfortunately it seems that is the case, however a north-south split may develop with the most warmer/settled conditions promoting some rather warm conditions as we head into August.



It does look likely that we may get more settled weather towards end of July, however I also said this for June and the NAO state didn't provide, what we was looking for. However good chance of some Thundery weather.

[quote][b]JUNE 2012 [/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]- [/font][/color][color=#ff0000][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Version 1.1[/font][/color][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] - [i]Part (3)[/i] [/font][/color][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]There been some uncertainty in this region for the long range models recently, with high pressure a possibility over Greenland, but there looks to be a fairly good chance of some sort of warmer weather, possibly a plume and this is likely to be Thundery in Nature towards the end of June, as high pressure builds over Europe. However becoming more settled in the last few days of June.[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]As with most settled periods, the Atlantic is likely to break down any settled weather as we head into July.[/font][/color][/quote]

Let's wait and see, I might update this week 2 regarding the end of July.

[color=#ff0000][August 2012 might be the best of the Summer weather?? Expect an update to this nearer to mid July.][/color]



[s][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]There is some suggestion that as we enter July, the NAO state begins to go back to a more negative state, prompting Northern Blocking to rebuild rather quickly over Greenland. However there is some considerable uncertainty, as if the NAO state remains more neutral the high pressure that could build over the UK is likely to remain a feature for a fairly settled July this had been shown for the last 2 months as a forecast for July, but July is now looking a fairly unsettled Month, but questions can be raised as to how, when why the Greenland block may re-appear prompting unsettled weather to predominately cross the UK.[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Another alternative is another Spanish Plume mid month which will be quickly broke down by the Atlantic as the NAO again head to negative, this could be seen as a repaint of June.[/font][/color][/s]



[b]Summary [/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]- [/font][/color][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][color=#FF0000][i]A tough month to forecast, depending on the state of the NAO as we head towards MID June/Late June and into early days of July it's too tough to call as it can go either way. [/i][/color][/font][/color]
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