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Weather Guide Sunday 17th To Saturday 23rd June (west Wales And Central Midlands Specific)

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TonyH

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[b]Headline: Drier than of late, still some showers; rather warm mid week. Unsettled end to week.[/b]

A slight respite from the cool, wet weather for a few days last week, particularly for west Wales. During Tuesday and Wednesday, we enjoyed some warm sunny spells raising temperatures to an average 19c. There were, however, very heavy showers about on these days too, but Llanwnnen missed the worst of these. I experienced a torrential shower just 2 miles from home on Tuesday afternoon, and another even heavier downpour in Carmarthen on Wednesday afternoon, but my rain gauge measured only around 1mm on each of these days. This shows how variable rainfall is in showery set ups.


The rains were heavy and widespread again for the latter part of the week, especially for Wales, and as I type it has rained for most of the past 48 hours, with well over 2 inches (55mm) having fallen on my garden since Thursday afternoon. We are only half way through June, and it's already one of the wettest on record for west Wales, with 140mm having fallen on Llanwnnen. Not so far off the wettest June here which was 186mm in 2007, so 2012 is almost certain to take that particular crown here in Ceredigion. At least no repeat of the severe flooding of last weekend, with the Aberystwyth area escaping the worst of it this time. A very wet month in the MIdlands also, almost 4 inches so far for Coventry.

A rather changeable week ahead, but also with decent dry spells. In any sunny spells it will feel quite warm, so an improvement on what June has given us thus far, but that is not saying anything!

The deep low pressure that has brought all this rain and wind these past 48 hours has finally exited the UK into the North Sea by Sunday morning. We then spend several day's in a No Man's Land of atmospheric pressure, which is slack, and neither particularly high nor low. This is the kind of complicated set up where almost anything can happen, so don't be surprised to experience some warm sunshine early to mid next week, but also some heavy showers again. Up until Wednesday, neither low nor high pressure really wins out, so uncertainty with the actual weather this set up will produce?

Just a few showers still about on Sunday, and a small low feature may develop enough to bring rain to southern parts on Sunday night, but for most a much drier spell ahead. Plenty of mostly dry weather should sum up Sunday to Wednesday then, but with scattered showers, some heavy, affecting most places sooner or later, but probably no prolonged spells of rain, although these can sometimes develop at short notice from such situations. Temperatures gradually improving and feeling warm in the sunny spells mid week. Still on the cool side though for Sunday and Monday, maxima just 16 to 19c. A touch warmer though for Tuesday and Wednesday, into the low 20's for many, especially in the MIdlands. Some chilly nights coming up though, but probably not quite cold enough for ground frosts.
[attachment=135469:brack1a No Mans Land Mon.gif] [attachment=135470:Recm722 NML Tue few showers.gif] [attachment=135471:brack3 L winning Tue.gif] [attachment=135472:Rtavn781 slack showers Tue.png] [attachment=135473:brack4 H winning Wed.gif]

A great deal of uncertainty in the models for what follows a fairly uncertain period in any case! It looks as though, for a while at least, a more definite unsettled theme takes over, as low pressure closes in on north-western UK. More rain and showers look likely for Thursday and Friday, and it turns cooler and breezy once more. However some signs in two of the main models of high pressure over the UK next weekend, which would mean a fine, warm interlude. Don't count on this yet though...the ECM model paints a very unsettled picture for next Friday and the weekend, with low pressure firmly in control again. The jury is then still out for next weekend!
[attachment=135474:Rtavn1261 L NW of Ire Thu rain later.png] [attachment=135475:Recm1442 L Ire FRi more rain showers cool.gif] [attachment=135476:Rukm1441 H building Fri poss.gif] [attachment=135477:Rtavn1741 H Sat optimistic.png] [attachment=135478:Recm1922 unsettled next weekend and cool.gif]
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Certainly hoping for GFS to be right towards the weekend, but going by recent trends I'll go for ECM, but hope GFS is right.

Last week was a mix here as well, Monday - Wednesday not bad, with Wednesday very nice, But Thursday onwards was unsettled and even though we missed the worst of the rain could never be described as summary.

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I was solidly going for unsettled next weekend until this morning's GFS (and UKMO's high pressure hints). Like you my money is on unsettled what with the overall pattern.

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