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Weather Guide Monday 11th To Sunday 17th June (west Wales And Central Midlands Specific)

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TonyH

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[b]
[b]Headline: Very unsettled, plenty more rain, more flooding prospects. Cool.[/b][/b]

With just over a week of June gone most places in west Wales and the central MIdlands have already reached or exceeded the average June rainfall for the whole month. The Midlands had well over an inch last weekend, while Llanwnnen had over 2 inches falling over Thursday and Friday. These amounts, however, pale into insignificance compared with the amounts that fell over north Ceredigion and around Machynlleth causing the almost unprecedented flooding. The official Met Office weather site at Trawsgoed, near Aberystwyth, recorded over 80mm on Friday alone, so a month's rain in a single day! Radar accumulations suggest double this amount over the higher ground north- east of Aberystwyth and around the Dovey estuary. Hopefully, a rainfall event of this magnitude will not recur for many decades in that area!

Some notably cool weather too for the start of June, Coventry had one of it's coldest June days on record last Sunday, a maximum of just 11c, while during Friday afternoon, Llanwnnen did not get above 11c either.

Although a bit of a respite from the really heavy rain for a few days, we will see more heavy rain and showers this week, and there is the potential for another deluge later in the week, one to watch developments on ... but at this stage it's really not looking that good with further flooding likely.

A rather cool and showery set up until the middle of the coming week, with longer spells of rain in places. A little low is running up the English Channel during Sunday, with some showery rain for many parts, and the south Midlands getting some more general rain later today and tonight from this low. Showers for Monday, mostly for the Midlands, and poor temperatures for Summer, struggling to reach 16c. During Tuesday another little low feature is set to develop over Wales, and so enhancing the rain and showers here, meaning wetter in the west for Tuesday, but perhaps a drier interlude for the Midlands. Unfortunately this low sticks over Wales through into Wednesday, so the potential for some large rainfall totals again here in places yet again. Temperatures will be suppressed on Tuesday and Wednesday where it is cloudy and wet, no higher than 14c, but given any sunny intervals a more respectable 19c could be reached for the more fortunate.
[attachment=135254:Recm482 cool showery mon and tue.gif] [attachment=135255:Rtavn602 showery mostly cool Tue.png] [attachment=135256:brack2a small L Wales Wed.gif] [attachment=135257:Rtavn841 stubborn little feature over Wales perhaps wet again.png]

Rainfall and flooding wise - even worse prospects for the end of the week. Another deep Atlantic low is slowly approaching later on Thursday, and this is set to gradually cross England and Wales during Friday and Saturday. Large rainfall totals are being modelled from this for Friday especially, easily an inch or more widely, and some areas could get a lot more unfortunately. These type of systems, such as we saw last week, and that is expected for the end of this week, contain marked temperature contrasts, which often result in copious rain, and not helped by the fact that these are so slow in crossing the UK, so there could well be more serious flooding issues by the end of the week, and perhaps more especially for Wales again. Let's just hope that the Aberystwyth and Machynlleth areas are spared the worst on this occasion. Friday could also be a notably cold June day again too, with projected highs of under 10c for north Wales on Friday, although this, at least is subject to change for the better? Although the end of the week could well turn windy for a while, a repeat of last Friday's damaging gales is considered unlikely. Nonetheless, a very cool, and very wet prospect to end the week - about as bad as it can get in Summer!
[attachment=135258:brack4 another deep moist rainy L to SW Thu.gif] [attachment=135259:Recm1202 deep wet L approaches Thu.gif] [attachment=135260:Rtavn1322 fro L temp contrast.png] [attachment=135261:Rtavn1324 wet Fri.png] [attachment=135263:Recm1442 L still there Fri very wet.gif]

No let up from this exceptionally poor Summer weather even next weekend which continues to appear low pressure dominated.
[attachment=135265:Recm1682 wet weekend.gif] [attachment=135266:Rtavn1801 unsettled still next weekend.png]
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For once I don't necessarily agree with some of that. There is a large degree of uncertainty in relation to the Low Pressure pushing up from the South West for next weekend. With inter run differences and certainly between the different models.

In any case we shall see and hopefully the low pressure for Next Weekend remains out to the west (or south west)

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Hope your right and I am wrong, but I see the overall trend for the system to slowly cross Wales and England with the potential copious rain.

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Maybe it's wishful thinking from me. Perhaps don't shoot the messenger applies.

One thing about summer depressions is that they tend to move a low slower, at least in the winter they would be gone much quicker.

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Well, the low and copious rain arrived! Over 30mm since yesterday and still coming.

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