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Weather Guide Monday 4th To Sunday 10th June (west Wales And Central Midlands Specific)

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TonyH

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[b]Headline: Very unsettled, plenty of rain, and often quite cool[/b]

The long fine and very warm spell is over, however fairly warm and humid air lingered until this weekend here in west Wales. While Rugby only reached 14c in cool drizzly conditions on Saturday, Llanwnnen managed a humid 23c. June is ushering in with a very unsettled, low pressure dominated and none too warm outlook.

May taken overall had slightly above normal temperatures, the statistics masking the heat towards the month end. Llanwnnen was on the dry side with just 53mm of rain, while Rugby had 56mm which is average for there. This was the third month in a row that Rugby has had more rain than Llanwnnen, a complete reversal of the norm!

A very wet night and morning across the Midlands, with an inch of rain having fallen already in places there, more drizzly for west Wales. More rain and drizzle at times for the rest of Sunday, and a very cool afternoon for the Midlands, just 11 to 13c the highs. The rain clears away overnight.

A little bump of high pressure follows the low for Monday, so hopefully a mostly dry and bright Spring Bank Holiday, just the chance of a few showers for the Midlands. A rather cool day reaching just 17c or so. A clear, chilly Monday night to follow a pleasant enough day, although as we are now into 'Summer' no ground frost is expected.

The next frontal system is waiting in the wings of the south-west Tuesday morning, and rain and drizzle arrives in west Wales by lunchtime, set to spoil any Jubilee celebrations here, while the Midlands may remain dry until later in the afternoon. Temperatures on the cool side again for the Jubilee with all the cloud, maxima just around 16c.
[attachment=134966:brack1a Jubilee spoiler.gif] [attachment=134967:Rtavn604 damp Jubilee afternoon.png]

A very low pressure dominated theme Wednesday onwards, as systems move slowly in from the Atlantic to cross the UK. Difficult to pin down timings of longer spells of rain, as well as just how wet each day will turn out. Suffice to say plenty of showers and longer periods of rain, heavy at times. Wednesday looks an essentially sunshine and showers day, these heavy at times with thunder possible. The modelling currently suggests an especially wet spell on Thursday or Friday as a large low containing plenty of moist, warm air slowly moves into the UK. With this air type some thundery showers, even thunderstorms, could also be a feature later in the week, more especially for the Midlands - as is usually the case. In any sunny intervals on Thursday or Friday feeling humid and warmer, potentially up to 21c, but if cloudy and wet then just 18c at best.
[attachment=134968:brack2a showery wed.gif] [attachment=134969:Recm722 big flabby low wed showery.gif] [attachment=134973:Rtavn844 showery wede.png][attachment=134970:brack4 wet windy thur.gif] [attachment=134971:Rtavn1082 humid wet thu.png] [attachment=134972:Recm1202 wet spells thu to fri.gif] [attachment=134974:Rukm1201 low stuck end week rain showers.gif]

Even as far out as next weekend, it's looking very unsettled with further rain or showers at times and still rather cool. All in all, by this time next week we should all have had a good soaking, a further two inches of rain falling in places this week.
[attachment=134975:Rtavn1501 still unsettled next wend.png] [attachment=134976:Recm1682 still very unsettled next wend.gif]
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