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Summer 2012 - Long Range Forecast V1.1

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Robbie Garrett

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VERSION 1.1 (Updated from Aprils version)

[b]Summer 2012 -[/b]

[b]JUNE 2012 [/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]- Version 1.1[/font][/color]
The first week of June 2012, is looking fairly unsettled but that should be expected with the settled period we have just had, as with any Summery weather. The further south you are is likely to promote some wetter conditions, however there is some considerable uncertainty as to the exact specifics of this upcoming short lived unsettled spell, with the possibility some of the depressions could be thundery in nature, the other alternative is cooler, with temperatures suppressed by frontal weather coming in off the Atlantic.

The NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) Indicates a fairly unsettled picture for the UK for the early to mid part of June, with a blocking high pressure forming over Greenland, this looks set to continue till Mid June 2012, where the NAO goes back to a more neutral state promoting warmer weather and more settled weather across the UK for the 3rd and likely 4th week of June 2012.

There been some uncertainty in this region for the long range models recently, with high pressure a possibility over Greenland, but there looks to be a fairly good chance of some sort of warmer weather, possibly a plume and this is likely to be Thundery in Nature towards the end of June, as high pressure builds over Europe. However becoming more settled in the last few days of June.

As with most settled periods, the Atlantic is likely to break down any settled weather as we head into July.

[b]Summary [/b][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][color=#282828]- [/color][/font][color=#ff0000][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][b]Fairly unsettled start to June, but a fairly decent weeks worth of Spanish Plume weather as we head towards the final end of June. As we get to the last week high pressure is likely to build across the UK prompting more warm and settled conditions, expect this to quickly become unsettle as we head into the 2nd month of Meteorological Summer[/b][/font][/color][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][color=#282828]. [/color][/font]

[b]JULY 2012 [/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]- Version 1.1[/font][/color]

There is some suggestion that as we enter July, the NAO state begins to go back to a more negative state, prompting Northern Blocking to rebuild rather quickly over Greenland. However there is some considerable uncertainty, as if the NAO state remains more neutral the high pressure that could build over the UK is likely to remain a feature for a fairly settled July this had been shown for the last 2 months as a forecast for July, but July is now looking a fairly unsettled Month, but questions can be raised as to how, when why the Greenland block may re-appear prompting unsettled weather to predominately cross the UK.

Another alternative is another Spanish Plume mid month which will be quickly broke down by the Atlantic as the NAO again head to negative, this could be seen as a repaint of June.

[color=#ff0000][b][EXPECT AN UPDATE TO VERSION 2.0 as we head into the midst of June.][/b][/color]


[b]Summary [/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]- [/font][/color][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][color=#ff0000][i]A tough month to forecast, depending on the state of the NAO as we head towards MID June/Late June and into early days of July it's too tough to call as it can go either way. [/i][/color][/font]

[b]AUGUST - [/b]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]August is a very long way away, but it looks like temperatures will be below average, as high pressure stays firm across Greenland prompting very unsettled conditions across the UK. There is obviously considerable uncertainty in this part of the long-range forecast due to the forseeable fact that the NAO state is very very hard to judge at this time.[/font][/color]

[b]Summary [/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]- [/font][/color][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][color=#ff0000][i]This could have been a month to watch a few weeks back, but the NAO state is causing some headaches for the models as they chop and change. [/i][/color][/font]

[color=#ff0000][b][EXPECT AN UPDATE TO VERSION 2.0 as we head into the midst of July.][/b][/color]

[b]Season Analysis.[/b]

[font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][color=#282828]Considerable uncertainty has been raised by the NAO state, and as such the only month easy to predict is June at this range. Which given the timeframe is creditable. [/color][/font]
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Very good forecast Robbie, it's obvious from reading it that a lot of hard work and thought has gone into your piece

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Cheers AJ, one thing I have learnt with long-term forecasting though it's night on impossible. It's only good for spotting trends. Trends of something that is likely to happen, or not likely to happen.

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