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Weather Guide Monday 14th To Sunday 20th May (west Wales And Central Midlands Specific)

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TonyH

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[b]Headline: Cool and changeable; more rain and showers at times, with decent dry interludes. Frost risk mid week.[/b]

The dismal, cool and soggy Spring continues relentlessly. A respite from the rain this weekend but a fairly unsettled outlook for the coming week, so still no prolonged dry or warm weather as yet. In fact, more late frosts are expected in the middle of the coming week.


After a fairly sunny but windy weekend, the cloud from the next frontal system, attached to a deep low passing north of Scotland, spreads over during this evening. Rain at times Sunday night, especially for west Wales along with quite a strong south-west wind. The rain should have cleared by lunchtime with sunny spells and a few showers for Monday afternoon and evening. A fresh westerly wind and feeling rather cool.
[attachment=134153:brack0 rain to showers mon.gif]

Even cooler on Tuesday, with a fresh to strong north to north-west wind bringing quite a few showers, these heavy with hail at times. Maxima just 10 to 12c. The low pressure edges away east Tuesday night, and winds may ease enough to give a ground frost as temperatures get down close to zero. Wednesday looks like being a dry and fairly sunny day with a high pressure crossing southern Britain. Still rather cool though, 14 to 16c at best. Clear skies lead to another frost for Wednesday night, close to zero in places once more.
[attachment=134154:Recm482 cool showery tue.gif] [attachment=134155:brack2a frost sunny wed.gif] [attachment=134156:Rtavn781 H south wed dry.png] [attachment=134158:Rtavn9017 frost wed night.png]

This high has moved east by Thursday, but may still be ridging across England and Wales and keeping it generally dry, but perhaps with more cloud than Wednesday. There is the chance that some showery rain may arrive from the west later in the day, but a mostly dry Thursday looks likely. Temperatures around average reaching 15 to 17c, warmest in the Midlands.
[attachment=134157:Recm962 mostly dry thu after frost.gif]

On Friday we are influenced by a low pressure moving up from France with it's associated rain. It's debatable how far north this low will push up , but it seems it could get into southern UK. Alternatively, it may give us a glancing blow passing more to the south-east. Nonetheless turning more unsettled again on Friday and into next weekend with areas of rain or showers affecting many parts. If the low tracks to our south-east then it drags chilly north-east winds over us too, so not too good at least for Saturday, with well below average temperatures once more. The GFS model is showing highs of just 7c for Wales and the Midlands next Saturday, an exceptionally cool and damp day - however this model tends to exaggerate temperatures so 10c or so would be a more realistic level should this scenario play out, and with the usual proviso that 'it's a long way off'! As for next Sunday, another cool day seems likely, although whether it rains or not is anyone's guess at this stage.
[attachment=134159:Rtavn1201 shall low south fri.png] [attachment=134160:Recm1202 cool E wind fri rain later.gif] [attachment=134161:Rtavn1441 L to SE Sat unsettled cool NE wind.png] [attachment=134162:Rtavn15017 Very cool sat.png]
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