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Weather Guide Monday 7th To Sunday 13th May (west Wales And Central Midlands Specific)

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TonyH

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[b]Headline: Unsettled, more rain or showers at times, temperatures close to average. Looking dry next weekend.[/b]

Although overall April 2012 was the wettest on record for the UK, this was not the case at Coventry where the final amount fell just 2mm short of the all time record of 106mm, nor for Ceredigion, with Llanwnnen receiving 126mm rain compared with the 186mm that fell on Lampeter in April 1998. However, Rugby had almost three times the April average with 129mm falling, and probably a local record amount. All very welcome given the long term rainfall deficit and drought orders, but some drier weather would not go amiss given the flooding that has occurred in places!

Some very cool weather about at times during the past week just gone; on Thursday Rugby reached just 7c, which is 8c below the early May average figure. However, although the cool northerly snap did arrive as predicted for this weekend, with snow showers in parts of Scotland and northern England, the light winds and some sunshine meant it actually has not felt too bad here in west Wales and we managed 10c to 12c maximum temperatures and stayed mostly dry on Saturday, and were also spared the frosts that some other areas have had.

Low pressure is set to spoil the May Day Bank Holiday, with a mostly cloudy morning and rain at times, this becoming more showery during the afternoon, some of these heavy. By Tuesday the low is over Scotland, so more showers or even a longer spells of rain, but with sunny intervals between. Temperatures a little below average so reaching 13-15c. Skies clear on Tuesday night, so a ground frost possible in places.
[attachment=133886:brack0a mon low.gif]

Wednesday should see a respite and may well turn out generally dry for most places with some sunshine too, so a little warmer up to 17c or so. A bit of a tight squeeze however, with the next low system waiting in the wings to the south-west and bringing more rain later on Wednesday, and more especially for Thursday. A mild night on Wednesday temperatures staying above 10c. This large complex low is then tracking across the UK on Thursday, so potentially a very wet day, with a flood risk in places. The rain should become more showery as the day progresses, especially to the south. Where it brightens up later in the day, it will become warm and humid up to 20c, which in turn will cause some heavy and thundery showers to develop. However, where it remains cloudy and wet only reaching 14c or so. It could be quite a windy day too depending on the exact track of the low, although if it decides to cross Wales then not so windy. The low track will also determine whether the warm conditions reach our areas or not?
[attachment=133887:Recm722 respite poss gf tue night.gif] [attachment=133888:brack3 respite wed.gif] [attachment=133893:Rtavn782 squeeze wed drier or not.png][attachment=133889:Recm962 next low wed night.gif] [attachment=133890:brack4 complex L very wet thu.gif] [attachment=133891:Rtavn964 wet start thu.png] [attachment=133892:Rtavn1021 thu low.png]

Previous recent model runs were indicating that southern parts would be getting a brief but very warm blip on Friday, up to 25c in places! Now though this is looking much less likely, with the warm sector of the low soon swept away east into Europe. So, the end of the week looks like drying out with a better weekend in prospect. Quite a cool and breezy day for Friday first though, with some showers still knocking about. High pressure builds across Wales and England just in time for the weekend so it may well be a dry, fine one. Not especially warm, maxima around 16c probably, and still a ground frost chance by night, but a pleasant enough weekend given what the weather models are predicting at the moment.
[attachment=133894:Rtavn1321 drying up fri.png] [attachment=133895:Rukm1441 drying out Fri.gif] [attachment=133897:Rtavn1561 weekend high dry.png]
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Not exactly sunny Sam. The weekend looks mainly dry and fine, after that looks unsettled still. So pretty decent for revising!

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