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Weather Guide Sunday 29th April To Saturday 5th May (west Wales And Central Midlands Specific)

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TonyH

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[b]Headline: Very wet and windy Sunday, then some rain or showers, but generally drier and and milder[/b]


This month is going some way to easing the water shortage in parts of the UK, and will end up one of the wettest April's on record; Llanwnnen has had over 5 inches rain so far and Rugby over 4 inches. The record for Coventry is 106mm (just over 4 inches), and so with a very wet Sunday coming up, a good chance this will become the wettest April on record.

Another low pressure system is currently winding itself up over northern Spain and is on course for south-west England, bringing moist air and plenty more rain along with strong winds for Sunday. So a thoroughly wet and windy day, the NE to east winds gusting to gale force, and the rain very heavy at times. The largest rainfall totals could well be in the Midlands with an inch likely in parts here. With all the wind and rain a very cool day, temps failing to reach just 10c or so. The rain will cease during the evening, being replaced by a few showers and the wind eases overnight.
[attachment=133585:brack0a wet cool windy sunday.gif] [attachment=133586:Rtavn304 soggy sunday.png]

This same low pressure sits fairly close to SW England on Monday and Tuesday so more unsettled weather, however it will be appreciably warmer than April has been with the wind coming off the Continent. Still some rain or showers about, with some heavy again, but sunny spells between, so temperatures reaching 16 to possibly 19c.
[attachment=133587:Recm482 warmer showers Mon.gif] [attachment=133588:brack3 more rain tue.gif] [attachment=133589:Rtavn781 unsettled Tue quite warm.png]

A ridge of high pressure then tries to build in from the north-west from Wednesday, so it's looking that it will be a mostly dry picture for several days from mid week, with sunny spells, and just the odd shower in a few places. Temperatures close to the early May average reaching 14 to 16c, although there is a chance of some low cloud feeding in off the North Sea into the MIdlands, and if this happens then temperatures will will be pegged down to just 9c there, very chilly indeed. Where skies clear overnight, there will be a frost risk, ground frost in the main, but a slight air frost cannot be ruled out.
[attachment=133590:Rtavn1082 rudge dry mid week.png] [attachment=133591:Recm1442 week R drier Thu Fri gf.gif]

Now, for next weekend things are shaping up for a belated cold (cool) blast of north to north-easterly winds. High pressure sets up over Greenland and with low pressure over northern Europe, an Arctic sourced air-stream affects the UK. If this happens, and it's a long way off in weather forecasting terms, then a decidedly chilly weekend in prospect with showers of rain, hail, and even sleet or snow for the high ground! Most of the showers would occur over the Midlands, with west Wales more sheltered from a north-east wind, and a better chance of dry, bright weather here. Also, any clear skies by night will see an air frost readily forming, as low as -3c in places where the wind drops off enough. By day, in spite of the sunny spells, temperatures unlikely to better 9 or 10c if this snap comes off.
[attachment=133592:Rtavn1502 cool snap setting up fri.png] [attachment=133593:Rtavn1802 very cool northerly showers weekend.png] [attachment=133594:Rtavn18017 very cool next Sat.png] [attachment=133595:Recm1922 cool showery next wend.gif]

So although in the main next week it will be milder than was April, we are still not out of the woods regarding notably cool weather as yet.
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One handy thing to add to the blog would be this link with gives the expected rainfall for the next 144 hrs,

[url="http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsgfsmeur.html"]http://www.wetterzen.../fsgfsmeur.html[/url]


And select Niederschlagsummen (total rainfall) and +144h, particularly useful for wet weeks like next week is projected to be.

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Nice one thanks Julian, not being progged especially wet here though.

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The main rain is forecast to miss us as well, but will that happen?

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