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Weather Guide Easter Sunday To Saturday 14th April 2012 (west Wales And Warwickshire Specific)

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TonyH

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[b]Headline: April showers, some longer spells of rain, cool to average temperatures[/b]

A very sharp frost for April last Thursday night, down to -6c at Llanwnnen.
Coventry had as much rain on Tuesday and Wednesday as it did in the whole of March. Rugby was even wetter receiving a very useful 24mm in the bid to prevent a hosepipe ban this Summer! These parts also saw a little snow for a while. West Wales has only had small amounts of rain of late, although this will change in the coming week.

Low pressure edges towards Scotland during Sunday, so a lot of cloud and becoming quite windy as the day goes on. Rain and drizzle at times, especially during the afternoon and evening, but most of it light. Temperatures around the April average reaching 12 or 13c.
The trailing cold front looks like developing a wave on Easter Monday, which could be a bit of a washout depending on how this feature develops. The worst of the rain is likely to be in the afternoon, and along with a strong south-west wind to spoil the holiday. Temperatures rather irrelevant given the wind and rain but on the cool side.
[attachment=132943:brack1 wave rain Mon.gif] [attachment=132944:Rtavn541 wet windy Mon.png]

During the middle of the week (Tuesday to Thursday) we are still affected by this low which moves into the North Sea or Scandinavia. Rather cool with showery north-west winds. As is the case with showers, some places will get quite a few downpours, while others, even just a few miles away, escape with a mostly dry day. Hail and even the odd crack of thunder are distinctly possible given such an unstable air mass. Temperatures on the cool side, generally only reaching 10- 12c, however, where the showers are fewer it will feel pleasant enough in the sunny spells and could manage 15c at best, perhaps most likely for the Midlands this. Winds are lighter from Wednesday so that some of the showers, where they occur, could well be prolonged, giving an hour or two of wet weather. Clearing skies overnight along with the cool air mass will see slight frosts developing.
[attachment=132945:brack4 Showers L Scand.gif] [attachment=132946:Recm962 cool showery mid week.gif]

The usual uncertainty for the end of the week, but there are suggestions of higher pressure and even a ridge moving in by Saturday, so a drier outlook with further sunny spells, and fewer showers about by Friday and Saturday. Still cool though with the generally northerly drift, maxima only around 10c or so. GFS has particularly chilly air over us by next weekend, and is showing a hard frost for early Saturday, down as low as -6c for parts of Wales and the Midlands - this is a long way off to predict and so best just bear this in mind, as in reality the frost may turn out less severe.
[attachment=132947:Recm1442 cool drier late week frosts.gif] [attachment=132948:Rtavn1562 frosty ridge Sat.png] [attachment=132949:Rtavn16217 cold night Sat.png]
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