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Weather Guide Sunday 18th To Saturday 24th March (west Wales And Central Midlands Specific)

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TonyH

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[b]Headline- Mostly dry: rather cloudy early on, then improving mid- week onwards to warm sunny spells for most. [/b][/color]

Although mainly dry this past week, the high pressure which suggested some warm, and at times sunny weather, in reality contained a lot of quite cool, moist air. At least around Lampeter we did see a few very mild and sunny afternoons last week, however the Cardigan Bay coast and central MIdlands saw plenty of cloud and mist, with temperatures restricted to high's of just 7 to 10c for the most part, quite disappointing considering the models were predicting so much better. Of interest is that during the early part of last week, while most lowland and coastal Wales was quite cool and misty, high ground up around 1000 feet was warm and sunny- Tredegar at 18c was the warmest place in the UK on Monday! There was some warm and sunny weather to be found if you were prepared to climb a hill..
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More generally dry weather the coming week, and it's not looking good for the drought restricted areas of England this Summer. A new high pressure, so new headaches with where areas of cloud will persist and where they manage to break, will make all the difference to the weather experienced, although the latter half of the week looks warmer and sunnier broadly speaking.[/color]
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Firstly on Sunday plenty of cloud from a weak trough and some rain or drizzle in places, especially the Midlands, this clearing later with even some late afternoon sunshine for west Wales probably. A cooler feel to the day too, and there could well be a slight frost as skies clear during Sunday night.[/color][color=#000000]
[attachment=132354:brack0 cloud damp Sun.gif][/color]

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High pressure is close to France early in week, with westerly winds bringing probably plenty more cloud and just sunny intervals for luckier places, this being on Monday and Tuesday, even with a little drizzle in some places. On the mild side though and reaching 11-13c.[/color][color=#000000]
[attachment=132355:brack1a ridge but cloud mon.gif] [attachment=132356:Recm722 cloud westerly Tue.gif] [attachment=132357:Rtavn782 H westerly Tue.png][/color]
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This area of high pressure then moves into into the North Sea or Germany region by Thursday. Winds then switching to south east, a direction which should favour more in the way of sunshine and increased temperatures. By Friday if this scenario plays out, then many of us will see temperatures of 16 - 18c maxima. As usual in Spring, should skies be clear enough overnight, then a touch of ground frost is likely, but hardly noticeable.[/color][color=#000000]
[attachment=132358:Rtavn1082 turning south Wed.png] [attachment=132359:Recm1442 wam SE flow Fri.gif] [attachment=132360:Rtavn1501 mild se flow Fri.png][/color]
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Some of the model output over the past few days has hinted at a disturbance forming close to South-west England by the end of the week, and if this feature were to develop, then some showery rain is likely in places on Friday or Saturday, more especially the south of our regions. This though, I feel, has just an outside chance of happening, and I envisage a generally dry and eventually quite warm week ahead.[/color]
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