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Alps Ski And Weather Forecast 27th January

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J10

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[b]Summary[/b]

Conditions continue to be very good or very good across the Alps after a lot of snow this winter, and things have generally settled down over recent days.


Further snowfall is also likely in western areas over the next few days, however it is set to turn very cold over the Alps next week, initially in eastern areas, but spreading across all parts later. Some mountain resorts struggling to get above -10c by day, and falling below -25c by night.


[b]Synoptic Pattern[/b]

The Azores High has ridged slightly to the NE, and with a trough over the UK, there are cool NW winds and low pressure. Low Pressure also over Greenland and the North Atlantic, Generally High pressure over Europe, with a massive 1056mb High Pressure system centered over NW Russia.

The scene has been set for a while now and the big question has been will this High pressure give Easterly winds and cold air over the UK.
This is the answer from GFS 12Hz run on Friday 27th Jan.
[attachment=128434:27 Jan Current.JPG]

Saturday sees the Azores High start to ridge further NE and the "Russian High" moves ever further westwards, both towards the UK. Cool settled conditions over the UK, Very Cold over Scandinavia, cold over much of Europe.

[attachment=128427:27 Jan +24.JPG]

Remaining cold over much of Europe, with an easterly flow courtesy of the dominating High pressure, now centered over Eastern Scandinavia, turning cold over Eastern parts of the UK as a Easterly flow sets in, however rain tries to edge in from the west with milder conditions.
[attachment=128428:27 Jan +48.JPG]

By Monday, the GFS now suggests that the warm front to the west will stall and retreat back westwards, with the Azores High also pushing away to the SW, this (if it happens) would allow a cold easterly flow to push over the UK, already it is cold over most of Europe apart from the far south.
[attachment=128429:27 Jan +72.JPG]

The High pressure still very much in charge with E to SE winds over the UK, very cold over much of Europe, but cool upper air over the UK, rather than cold, as the very cold air source gets moderated. However bitterly cold air building up to the East.
[attachment=128430:27 Jan +96.JPG]

There is huge uncertainty at the moment as to the end of next week, but GFS current suggests that extremely cold air floods westwards across much of Europe and starting to feed over the UK, with sub -10c temps at 850HPa pushing in. But we know how quickly the models can change.

[attachment=128431:27 Jan +120.JPG] [attachment=128432:27 Jan +144.JPG] [attachment=128433:27 Jan +168.JPG]

In the above the Alps have not been mentioned in summary these is less doubt here it is likely to be cold or very cold with an easterly flow easily established.

[b]Alps Detail[/b]

[b]Freezing Levels (noon)[/b]
[b]Sat 28 Jan - [/b]200m-500m (NE Austria), 600m-1000m generally, 1200m to 1400m (E Switzerland, SW Austria)
[b]Sun 29 Jan - [/b]200m-600m quite widely, 1000m-1200m S Switzerland into W Austria
[b][b]Mon 30 Jan - [/b][/b]200m-600m quite widely, 1000m-1200m French Alps, S Switzerland, into W Austria
[b][b]Tue 31 Jan - [/b][/b]0m-600m quite widely, 700-900m French Alps, S Switzerland, into W Austria
[b]Wed 1 Feb - [/b]0m-600m quite widely, 700-1100m locally French Alps, S Switzerland, into W Austria
[b][b]Thur 2 Feb - [/b][/b]0m-200m quite widely, 500-700m locally French Alps, S Switzerland, into W Austria
[b][b]Fri 3 Feb -[/b][/b] 0m-200m quite widely, 400-700m locally French Alps, S Switzerland, into W Austria

[b]Freezing Levels (6am)[/b]
[b]Sat 28 Jan - [/b]0m-200m (East), 400m-800m elsewhere
[b][b]Sun 29 Jan - [/b][/b]0m-200m (North and East), 300m-700m elsewhere
[b]Mon 30 Jan - [/b]0-200m generally, pockets up to 500m.
[b]Tue 31 Jan - [/b]0-200m generally, pockets up to 500m.
[b]Wed 1 Feb - [/b]0-100m
[b][b]Thur 2 Feb - [/b][/b]0-100m
[b][b]Fri 3 Feb -[/b][/b]Sea Level

[b]850 Hpa Temps (noon)[/b]
[b]Sat 28 Jan - [/b]-3 to -5c generally. -6 to -7c in E Austria
[b]Sun 29 Jan - [/b]Some Central areas -1 to -3c, -4 to -5c generally, -8 to -9c in E Austria
[b]Mon 30. Jan - [/b]Some Central areas -1 to -3c, -4 to -5c generally, -7 to -10c in E Austria
[b]Tue 31 Jan -[/b] Some Central areas -2 to -4c, -5c generally, -10 to -13c in E Austria, -10c in W Italy
[b]Wed 1 Feb - [/b]Some Central areas -3 to -5c, -7 to -8c generally, -10 to -13c in E Austria
[b]Thur 2 Feb -[/b] Some Central areas -5 to -7c, -8 to -10c generally, -13 to -16c in E Austria
[b]Fri 3 Feb[/b] -Some Central areas -5 to -7c, -8 to -11c generally, -13 to -18c in E Austria
The central areas mentioned above tend to relate to a small area of the far SE of Switzerland and SW Austria

[b]Sat 28 Jan[/b]
Some moderate precipitation during the morning for much of Switzerland into W Italy and the French Alps and Western Italy. (SL 800m). HTi not moving that much and turning heavier later for the French Alps and Western Italy, turning a bit lighter for Austria (SL 800-1000m). It should be drier generally further east. However the precipitation continuing overnight especially heavy on the French Italian border. (SL 500m max)
[attachment=128445:27 Jan + 24 Alps.JPG]

[b]Sun 29 Jan[/b]
Dry over the east of the Alps, some precipitation over S Switzerland, but the heaviest snow (to low levels) remaining over France and Italy. This should pretty much last all day, only slowing fading away by evening,
[attachment=128444:27 Jan +48 Alps.JPG]

[b]Mon 30 Jan[/b]
Mostly dry and bright but a few showers outbreaks likely over western parts during the afternoon, Snow Level around 1000m.
[attachment=128443:27 Jan +72 Alps.JPG]

[b]Tue 31 Jan[/b]
Mostly dry over the Alps, but heavy precipitation starting to edge form the SW for Italy later in the day.
[attachment=128442:27 Jan +96 Alps.JPG]

[b]Wed 1 Feb to Fri 3 Feb[/b]

Turning extremely cold especially over Austria, there will be occasional snow flurries over these days, but detail this far out is very difficult to pinpoint exactly where.
[attachment=128441:27 Jan +120 Alps.JPG] [attachment=128440:27 Jan +144 Alps.JPG] [attachment=128439:27 Jan +168 Alps.JPG]
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