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Alps Ski And Weather Forecast 14th January

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J10

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[b]Summary[/b]

After some remarkable snowfalls over the Alps over the past month, it should be a quieter week weather wise, it should be mostly dry with plenty of sunshine. There will always be a NE/SW split, always colder in Austria ,and very cold to start, and always less cold the further SW you go, but bitterly cold overnight throughout. However with all sunshine it should be a great skiing week, however there may be an avalanche risk in some areas, so beware this.

More Details as ever on the Ski Club of GB website.

[url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/snowreports/default.aspx"]http://www.skiclub.c...ts/default.aspx[/url]
[url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/pages/tips_full"]http://www.snow-fore...pages/tips_full[/url]

And also in the Netweather SkiCentre
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=skicentre;sess=

It should turn slightly milder as the week progresses but a large degree of uncertainty as to the medium term outlook.

[b]Synoptic Patterns and Progression[/b]

As ever, my synoptic pattern is based on the GFS, this week there are some significant differences between this model and the others towards the end of the week. So there is greater uncertainty than normal for Friday etc.

Currently we see low heights over the Northern Hemisphere, right from North America as far East as Svalbard, Low Pressure over Eastern Europe, with High Pressure over Russia, with the Azores High (1028mb) and a separate High Pressure over the UK (1028mb).

The low pressure over Eastern Europe is feeding in cold or very cold air for all of Scandinavia and most of Eastern Europe as far west as the Alps (esp Austria). Milder over Western Europe but with winds from the continent, temps cool and settled over the UK.

[attachment=127267:14 Jan Current.JPG]

Little change by Sunday and Monday, however the pattern over Europe has pushed a bit further east, still very cold over much of Eastern Europe, but milder SW winds starting to push east over Western Scandinavia. Remaining mild over most of Western Europe, cool and settled over the UK with surface winds from the continent.
[attachment=127261:14 Jan +24.JPG] [attachment=127262:14 Jan +48.JPG]

By Tuesday, low pressure (with low heights) over much of the Northern Atlantic including Greenland and Svalbard. High Pressure now over most of Europe as the Azores High has merged with the High over the UK, This will start feeding in milder SW winds over the UK and Western Scandinavia. Remaining cold over much of Eastern Europe.

[attachment=127263:14 Jan +72.JPG]

The Azores High pushes further NE by Wednesday and still feeding in mild SW winds over the UK and much of Western Europe. Still the Russian High keeping it very cold here, in between pressure around 1020mb, remaining cold over Eastern Europe, but slightly milder further west, now including the Alps. Upstream some cold air starting to be pushed down into the Mid Atlantic.

[attachment=127264:14 Jan +96.JPG]

By Thursday, High Pressure again for the Southern Atlantic, it should turn a bit milder over Central Europe, as the previous mild air over Western Europe gets pushed a bit further east, but remaining cold over much of Eastern Europe. starting to turn cooler over the UK with a brief NW flow, and turning colder as well with low pressure bringing westerly winds over Scandinavia
[attachment=127265:14 Jan +120.JPG]

By Friday, there should be High Pressure to the south of the UK. GFS gives a mild flat pattern with mild air, for NW Europe including the UK and Southern Scandinavia. Cool over much of Central Europe, remaining cold over NE Europe It should also stay mild over the UK for the weekend under this pattern.

[attachment=127266:14 Jan +144.JPG]

ECM and most of the other models to an extent go for more of a NW flow, with a ridge over the Atlantic, up to Greenland, giving cool or cold winds over the UK, and turning it cold and unsettled over the UK for the weekend, however it should be a mild start for much of Europe on the Friday, but turning much colder over the weekend.

[b]Alps Detail[/b]

[b]Freezing Levels (noon)[/b]
[b]Sat 14 Jan - [/b]600m to 800m (generally), 1200m to 1600m (SW Switzerland / W Italy)
[b]Sun 15 Jan - [/b]0 to 400m (E Austria), 600m to 1000m (Generally), 1000m to 1600m (SW Switzerland / W Italy)
[b]Mon 16 Jan - [/b]0 to 400m (E Austria), 600m to 1000m (Generally), 1200m to 1400m (West)
[b]Tue 17 Jan - [/b]600m to 1000m (Generally), 1000m-1600m (South and West)
[b]Wed 18 Jan - [/b]400 to 800m (E Austria), 1000m to 1600m (Generally), 1800m (SW Switzerland / W Italy)
[b]Thur 19 Jan - [/b]1200m to 1600m (East), 1800m to 2200m (West)
[b]Fri 20 Jan -[/b] 600m to 1000m (North and East), 1200m to 1600m (Generally), 1800m to 2200m (SW Switzerland / W Italy)

[b]Freezing Levels (6am)[/b]
[b]Sun 15 Jan - [/b]0m to 400m (Generally)
[b]Mon 16 Jan - [/b]0m to 400m (Generally)
[b]Tue 17 Jan - [/b]0m to 400m (Generally)
[b]Wed 18 Jan - [/b]0m to 400m (Generally), pockets higher
[b]Thur 19 Jan -[/b] 0m to 400m (Austria), around 600m generally, pockets higher
[b]Fri 20 Jan[/b] - 0m to 400m (North), around 600m generally, pockets higher

[b]850 Hpa Temps (noon)[/b]
[b]Sat 14 Jan - [/b]0 to +2 in South West, -1 to -5c Central, -7 to -8c in North and East,
[b]Sun 15 Jan - [/b]0 to -2 in South West, -2 to -6c Central -7 to -11c in North and East
[b]Mon 16 Jan - [/b]0 to -2 in South West, -2 to -6c Central, -6 to -8c in East
[b]Tue 17 Jan -[/b] 0 to -2 West, -2 to -6c in East
[b]Wed 18 Jan - [/b]0 to +2 West, -1 to -3c in East
[b]Thur 19 Jan -[/b] 0 to +4c Generally
[b]Fri 20 Jan[/b] - 0 to +3c in South West, -4 to -6c in North East

[b]Sat 14 / Sun 15 Jan[/b]
Mostly dry and settled over the Alps but moderate snowfall over Central Austria during Saturday morning and afternoon. Sunday looks mostly dry apart from light snowfall over Central Austria again, very cold generally over Austria
[attachment=127292:14 Jan +24 Alps.JPG]

[b]Mon 16 Jan[/b]
Dry and settled with plenty of sunshine, very cold again for Austria.
[attachment=127291:14 Jan +48 Alps.JPG]

[b]Tue 17 Jan[/b]
Mostly Dry and settled again, with plenty of sunshine, however patchy snow at times for Eastern Austria.
[attachment=127290:14 Jan +72 Alps.JPG]

[b]Wed 18 Jan[/b]
Dry and settled with plenty of sunshine, not quite as cold generally.
[attachment=127289:14 Jan +96 Alps.JPG]

[b]Thurs 19 Jan[/b]
Dry to start, perhaps more general precipitation edging in from the north during the day, with heavy bursts for much of Switzerland, Germany and Austria. Low confidence in this.
[attachment=127288:14 Jan +120 Alps.JPG]

[b]Fri 20 Jan[/b]
Any overnight precipitation should fade away during the day, leaving another mostly dry day.
[attachment=127287:14 Jan +144 Alps.JPG]

View the latest snow forecasts and reports for resorts across the world here:
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=skicentre;sess=
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2 Comments


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thanks Julian-tend to agree with your ideas-will enjoy the sun and snow conditions out to Wed perhaps Thur, who knows the way GFS and the other models are; best take it 2-3 days at a time, I'll just have to go in the bars/mountain inns a bit more if it turns 'orrible.
again tks for all the work you put into this area.

regards

John

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