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Alps Ski And Weather Forecast 9th December

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J10

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[b]Current Situation[/b]

After a very mild start to the season, there has been a great week of weather this week, with heavy snow over parts of the Alps, as ever Altitude helps but snow has fallen to resort level quite widely. The Ski Club of GB website has more details as ever on the following links.

[url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/news/story.aspx?storyID=8415"]http://www.skiclub.c...px?storyID=8415[/url]
[url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/snowreports/overview/default.aspx"]http://www.skiclub.c...ew/default.aspx[/url]

The current position sees a surface High Pressure over Greenland (1040mb), the remnants of yesterdays storm over Scotland is now centered over Norway giving a cold Polar Maritime NW flow over the UK, Other parts of NW Europe have a cool NW Flow, which also fringes the Alps . There is High Pressure covering the Southern Atlantic and also for Southern Europe.
[attachment=124576:Current 9th Dec.JPG]

[b]Synoptics[/b]

Tomorrow sees a very quick slackening of the High Pressure over Greenland with pressure reducing to 1016mb. For the North Atlantic through to Norway, there is low pressure but with a flat pattern, with Westerly winds running all the way from America through to NE mainland Europe. High Pressure remains over the South Atlantic, but with slack High pressure over much of Southern Europe extending as far north as the Alps.

Cool for the UK, briefly turning milder over the UK as rain and a mild sector pushes in later, Very Cold over Northern Scandinavia, generally cool or cold over the rest of Scandinavia, NE Europe, quite mild over the Alps and the remainder of Europe.

[attachment=124563:9 Dec +24.JPG]

Sunday sees Low Pressure over much of Northern Atlantic through to Northern Europe, with a mainly flat zonal pattern with westerly winds. High Pressure remains in control over Southern Europe. Milder for the UK, quite cool for much of Northern mainland Europe, but again mild for much of Southern Europe including the Alps, the coldest weather reserved for Northern Scandinavia.

[attachment=124571:9 Dec +48.JPG]

Monday sees The basic theme of low pressure to the north and Higher Pressure to the South remains, however the Azores High to the South West is further south, as a very cold North West wind pushes south off the coast of North America, further west there is a SW wind over the UK and much of Europe.

Very cold over Northern Scandinavia, but with SW winds for the rest of Europe, generally mild, but cool for Southern Scandinavia and for the UK and the far NW of Europe for a time.

[attachment=124565:9 Dec +72.JPG]

Tuesday sees Low Pressure covering the area from North America to Scandinavia, with the Azores High is now tilted in a NW/SE direction as this could mean NW winds bring Polar Maritime winds over much of the Atlantic. There is deep area of low pressure centered over Scotland, and this could give very unsettled weather with very strong winds for UK, although exact detail and timings are uncertain at this moment. Remaining more settled the further south and east you go into mainland Europe.

Most of Europe including the Alps is mild or quite mild, cool winds for the UK and much of Scandinavia, cold for Northern Scandinavia.

[attachment=124573:9 Dec +96.JPG]

The Synoptic pattern for Wednesday very similar, with low pressure dominating conditions over much of the Atlantic and Northern Europe, the low pressure over the UK on Tuesday moves slightly North East off the coast of Norway but still looking like strong winds over the UK.

Cool over the UK and NW Europe strengthening over the Alps, with a polar Maritime airflow, cool for Scandinavia with a Returning Polar Maritime airflow remaining mild for Southern Europe.

[attachment=124567:9 Dec +120.JPG]

A lot of uncertainty after this, but at this stage, you cannot really go against the theme of low pressure to the south and Higher Pressure over Southern areas, perhaps moving further east into western mainland Europe. Possibly cool over much of Northern Europe, at this stage it looks as if the Alps will be on the milder side of the weather.

[attachment=124575:9 Dec +144.JPG]
[attachment=124569:9 Dec +168.JPG]

[b]Alps Detail[/b]

[b]0c Isotherm Daytime Max Summary[/b]
[b]Sat[/b] 1200-1600m North, 1800-2000m elsewhere.
[b]Sun [/b]1400-1800m generally 2000-2200m SE
[b]Mon[/b] 1400-1800m generally, 2000-2300m E Austria
[b]Tue[/b] 1600-1800m S Austria and N Italy over 2000m elsewhere.
[b]Wed[/b] 1400m NW rising incrementally to 1800m SE Austria
[b]Thur[/b] 600-800 North and West rising to 1400m SE Austria
[b]Fri [/b]900m E Austria, up to 2200m W Alps

[b]0c Isotherm Night Summary[/b]
Generally quite mid overnight over the Alps with Freezing Levels around 1200-1500m however much colder on Sunday Night down to 600m in places.

[b]850Hpa Summary [/b]

[b]Sat[/b] Lowest at -4c in Central Germany rising steadily to +4 in Southern Switzerland.
[b]Sun [/b]0 to +4c generally, warmest over France and Switzerland
[b]Mon[/b] -2 to 0c over France, up to +3 or +4c over Austria.
[b]Tue[/b] 0c over Austria, but +4 o +5 in a swathe form France , Northern Switzerland through to Germany
[b]Wed[/b] +1 to +3c generally, turning colder from the west alter.
[b]Thur[/b]-4 or -5 for much of Germany, France and Austria, and N Switzerland, warmer over S Switzerland, and especially Italy up to +1/+3c
[b]Fri [/b]+3 or +4 in the west, -2 to -3c over Austria

[b]Saturday 10th December -[/b] Heavy Precipitation to start over the Northern Alps in the early morning, for Southern Germany and the far north of Switzerland and Austria. This continuing during the day but edging south into Northern Switzerland and Austria, and the far south of Germany, Snow Levels around 1000m on the north of the front, around 1600m in the south of the front. Mostly dry elsewhere over the Alps, and any precipitation dying out during the afternoon and evening.
[attachment=124562:9 Dec +24 Alps.JPG]

[b]Sunday 11th December -[/b] Mostly dry and settled over the Alps with some decent sunny spells. Pressure around 1016mb (W) to 1023mnb (E) with light SW winds.

[attachment=124570:9 Dec +48 Alps.JPG]

[b]Monday 12th December - [/b]Dry to start but showers developing over Italy and perhaps southern parts of Austria later. A cold front will edge into western areas of the Alps especially France during the morning and spreading east over the afternoon into Switzerland then Austria Snow levels around 1200-1500m, perhaps up to 15-20cm of snow in places. Any precipitation moving away to the East quickly during the evening.

[attachment=124564:9 Dec +72 Alps.JPG]

[b]Tuesday 13th December - [/b]Mostly dry over Southern and Eastern parts of the Alps, light precipitation edging into North Western areas, and this continuing through the day before dying out during the late afternoon and early evening, Snow above around 2000m.

[attachment=124572:9 Dec +96 Alps.JPG]

[b]Wednesday 14th December -[/b] Another day of a NW SE split, remaining mostly dry and bright in the SE, Precipitation again edging into the NW into the afternoon, with some heavy bursts possible especially during the afternoon, Snow above aroudn 1400m .

[attachment=124566:9 Dec +120 Alps.JPG]

[b]Thursday 15th December and Friday 16th December -[/b] A this stage looking colder for Thursday with periods of snow down to around 800m . Friday looks milder with rain spreading from the west.
[attachment=124574:9 Dec +144 Alps.JPG]
[attachment=124568:9 Dec +168 Alps.JPG]

[b]Summary[/b]
In a week with a very defined theme of unsettled weather over Northern Europe, very difficult to pin down the exact conditions over the Alps especially day to day. Temps will fluctuate widely especially for northern areas. the further North and West you go there will be more precipitation and it looks as if snow coverage will be increased over the higher slopes, but decrease on lower slopes as much of the precipitation will fall as rain and there will be a thawing of lying snow, due to raised temps.

For people going on holiday this week it should be quite decent with sunny spells especially towards the south and east and not terribly cold during the day.
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Well things turned out far snowier than I anticipated this time last some parts of the Alps received (or are in the course of receiving) over 50cm for the next few days. Especially in the western half of the Alps, click the following story for more info

http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/news/story.aspx?storyID=8431

A full forecast to follow early tomorrow afternoon.

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