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Alps Ski And Weather Forecast 2nd December

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J10

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[b]Introduction [/b]

It remains a very disappointing start to Winter for the Alps, with very little snow for the lower slopes, However the cold overnight temperatures have meant that snow cannons have been in operation, and a large number of resorts have been able to open. However the lack of snow has meant that the opening Ski races schedule for Val D'Isere have had to be moved to Beaver Creek in North America.

More details on snow amounts and general conditions available on at the Ski Club of Great Britain website. [url="http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/snowreports/overview/default.aspx"]http://www.skiclub.c...ew/default.aspx[/url]

Looking at the current synoptic chart, there is High Pressure (1036mb) covering the South of the Atlantic. There is low pressure over the Greenland through to Scandinavia area, with a number of separate centres. However this is generally feeding in cold or very cold Polar Maritime air for much of this region. The UK and NW mainland Europe is in between the High Pressure to the SW and the low Pressure to the NW, with a ridge of High pressure to start, before rain pushes in from the NW later in the day. The rest of Europe (including Eastern Scandinavia) mostly mild with SW winds, but remaining cold in Russia.

[attachment=124063:Current 2nd Dec 850Hpa.png]

[b]Synoptic Progression[/b]

The previous blogs this winter have gone with full detail for 7 days, however accuracy of the charts after 5 days has not been that great, as a result, I'll give the general pattern only.

Saturday sees the whole pattern move further east, Low Pressure now for much of the Atlantic and Northern and Western Europe including the UK and now the Alps. High Pressure remains for the Southern Atlantic, and SE Europe remains under High Pressure.

Very cold in the Atlantic, and turning cooler over the UK, remaining quite mild for the Alps, the low countries and Northern France with SW winds, still cool for Scandinavia as we have a returning Polar Maritime airflow despite the SW wind direction.

[attachment=124048:2 Dec +24.JPG]

Sunday sees a very similar pattern, but the colder air has edged slightly further SE. A Surface High pressure has formed over Greenland above a potent Polar Vortex, feeding bitterly cold winds down from the Arctic. Low Pressure now for much of the Atlantic and Northern and Central Europe including the UK and now the Alps. High Pressure remains for the Southern Atlantic, SE Europe now has pressure around 1016-1020mb.

Very cold in the Atlantic, and turning colder over the UK with a NW Polar Maritime airflow, with very cold air for Northern parts, cold for Southern parts of the UK, much of Northern Mainland Europe and Scandinavia. Still though rather mild for much of France, the Alps and most of Southern Europe. .

[attachment=124050:2 Dec +48.JPG]

Monday sees a very similar pattern, but the colder air has again edged slightly further SE. A Surface High pressure remains over Greenland (1024mb) above a potent Polar Vortex. A massive area of Low Pressure (centred west of Norway 960mb) now covers most of Europe, with very cold winds on the western side, slightly milder SW winds on its Eastern Side. for much of the Atlantic and Northern and Central Europe, High Pressure now restricted to the far SE of Europe.

Very cold in the Atlantic, and turning colder over the UK with a NW Polar Maritime airflow, very cold air (sub -5c 850Hpa) covers the whole of the UK and parts of the low countries. Most of Northern Europe seeing cold air (sob zero 850Hpa) including progressively the Alps more detail on the snow potential to follow below), cold or very cold for the Scandinavia, with the mild air now restricted to the far south of Europe.

[attachment=124052:2 Dec +72.JPG]

Tuesday again sees the general pattern, low pressure for most of Europe. bringing cold or very cold air from the North West. The very cold airflow cutoff for most apart from Scandinavia, but remaining cold from most of Northern and Western parts of Europe, if anything turning colder in NE areas, as the initial cold now pushes in here.

[attachment=124054:2 Dec +96.JPG]

Wednesday and Thursday sees the wind direction turn round to more of westerly direction as opposed to North Westerly direction, so turning milder for the UK and much of Mainland Europe. however signs of a further blast of colder air pushing back down across the UK initially and then for most of NW Europe for Friday, so a further chance of wintry weather. Staying very cold in Scandinavia throughout, and mild over much of southern Europe.

[attachment=124058:2 Dec +120.JPG]
[attachment=124060:2 Dec +144.JPG]
[attachment=124062:2 Dec +168.JPG]

The outlook sees the potential for High pressure to build from the South West, and perhaps move back into Euro High Territory.

[b]Alps Detail[/b]

[size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][CODE]850Hpa Summary (Noon) ,Regional Detail
Sat 3rd Dec +1 to +4 Generally
Sun 4th Dec +2 to +7 +2/+3 Italy, +4 to +7c Generally
Mon 5th Dec -3 to +6 -3 (North) up steadily to +6 in Italy
Tues 6th Dec -5 to +2 -5 (Austria) up steadily to +2 in Italy
Wed 7th Dec -5 to +4 -5 (Austria) to to +4 in Italy, generally milder though then recent days
Thurs 8th Dec -2 to +5 Generally +1 to +4
Fri 9th Dec -5 to +6 0 to -5 (N Alps), 0 to 3 S Austria and S Switzerland[/CODE][/font][/size]


[size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][CODE]0c Isotherm Summary (6am) , Regional Detail
Sat 3rd Dec 1400m-2200m 1400m-1600m Generally
Sun 4th Dec 1400m-2800m 1400-2200m SE Switzerland, SW Austria, Higher elsewhere
Mon 5th Dec 1200m-2800m 1200m (NW), 1600-1800m generally Austria/ Switzerland
Tues 6th Dec 600m-1000m Generally, but 1000-1600m Italy
Wed 7th Dec 200m-1400m 1000-1400 (W and W Austria), lower Eastern Austria
Thurs 8th Dec 300m-2400m Local Variations
Fri 9th Dec 900m-1800m Generally[/CODE][/font][/size]

[size=3][font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][CODE]0c Isotherm Summary (Noon) , Regional Detail
Sat 3rd Dec 1800m-2200m Generally
Sun 4th Dec 1900m-2400m 2200-2400m Generally
Mon 5th Dec 1000m-2200m 1000m (NW), 1400-1600m generally Austria/ Switzerland
Tues 6th Dec 800m-1400m 800m (N and W), 1400m Southern Austria and S Switzerland,Italy
Wed 7th Dec 800m-2000m 800m (NE Austria), 1000-1600m Switzerland and much of Austria
Thurs 8th Dec 1600m-3000m 1600m (NE Austria), 3000m SE Italy
Fri 9th Dec 800m-2600m 800m (N and W), 800-1400m Southern Austria and S Switzerland, [/CODE][/font][/size]

[b]Saturday 3 December [/b]- Quite a lot of precipitation to start Saturday morning, especially for Eastern Switzerland and Western Austria and Central Italy. Snow level around 1400m. This tending to move away to SE Austria later in the day , before a more general frontal band of heavy precipitation moves into the NW alps by late evening. This continuing during the early hours, with the potential for moderate snowfalls for NW Switzerland, the Portes Du Soleil, and into Southern Germany above around 1900m, potentially 10 inches of snow in the Northern Portes du Soleil.

[attachment=124047:2 Dec +24 Alps.JPG]

[b]Sunday 4 December [/b]- The precipitation only slowly dying out during the day especially for much of the French Alps, Switzerland, the German alps, and Northern Austria. The snow level generally around 2200m without much regional variation, remaining dry over the south of the Alps. Into the evening and a cold front edges in from the north. Further heavy precipitation possible for the Portes du Soleil, Switzerland, the German Alps, and Northern Austria. Snow Level around 2000-2100m.

[attachment=124049:2 Dec +48 Alps.JPG]

[b]Monday 5 December [/b]- The precipitation continuing Monday morning and turning very heavy through through the Portes Du Soleil, a swathe of Switzerland including Wengen and Zermatt, and into Southern Germany and the far NW of Austria. Snow levels dropping as a cold front brings in colder Polar Maritime air, from 1800m on the front edge (to the SE) to around 1200m on the back edge. A wider area covering the France Alps, all of Switzerland the German Alps, and most of Austria, excluding the SE, will see some moderate precipitation.

During the afternoon the precipitation will become patchier but remain in the wider area described above, Snow Level, 800 (N) - 1800m (SE), During the late evening, patchy snow will fall to resort level for Switzerland.

[attachment=124067:2 Dec for Mon am.JPG]
[attachment=124051:2 Dec +72 Alps.JPG]

[b]Tuesday 6 December [/b]- The morning will see patchy snow for Germany and Northern Austria, mostly dry elsewhere, By evening, further Precipitation edging in from the west, snow down to around 1000m, moderate precipitation for the French Alps, Switzerland and the German Alps, mostly dry for Italy and Austria.
[attachment=124053:2 Dec +96 Alps.JPG]

[b]Wednesday 7 December [/b]- The precipitation continuing into Wednesday, and moving by morning to be centred over Switzerland and Austria, and largely dying out in Switzerland during the day with some heavy precipitation in western Austria during the day, snow level around 1200m.
[attachment=124057:2 Dec +120 Alps.JPG]

Thursday looks mostly dry at this stage, While Friday looks as if more snow may push down from the north associated with the colder plunge, but no point going into detail this far out.
[attachment=124059:2 Dec +144 Alps.JPG][attachment=124061:2 Dec +168 Alps.JPG]

[b]Summary [/b]

For the first time in months, there looks to be a probability of moderate snowfalls down to lower slope or resort levels. By the middle of next week, 25cm of snow seems very possible widely for parts of France, and Northern parts of Switzerland across to Germany, with up to 50cm in places.

There is also the chance of further snow towards the end of next week, however there is the possibility of a Euro High returning after this.
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Some good snow at the higher levels of the Portes Du Soleil today - good call Julian!

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