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Winter 2011/12 - My Initial Thought's And What I Expect

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I'm sticking with my guns about a "poor winters preceeded by a stormy autumn" something a kin to 2007. I think that we are going to struggle to see a proper Greenland High block this time around and all becuase La Nina might rear her ugly head for a second time.

I'll remind people again about last winter how La Nina prior to January 2011 struggled to get a grip on atmospheric conditions and global weather patterns and when she finally did, we saw weak attempts at northern blocking resulting in hp residing over the uk in pretty much unfavourable positions. Even though a large part of that winter was largely dry for most I reakon the good thing about it all was that it lead to one of the driest first half of the year for my area for quite some years and more sunshine too which made up for a generally cool summer.

Anyway, NOAA have said in discussions that "global weather patterns are still showing strong characteristics of la nina" and thats before another possible La Nina phase actually manifests itself. So with that in mind and the fact the magority of previous Negative Enso's co-incided with poor uk winters cold and snow wise, percentage wise we would likely see somewhere in the region of a 60% chance of a poor winter if La Nina was the dominant driver of weather during that winter.

It's a shame I had to reformat my pc sometime ago and lost the data file I put together a while back showing all the la nina and el nino winters of the past 60 years, summaries of the uk weather and percentages of how many La Nina/ Nino winters were poor for cold and snow (which most were) in chart form which I may try to recreate in the next couple of months.

So to summarise my thoughts for winter 2011/12:

Stormy autumn with some early cold phases leading up to a pretty cold December with less in the way of snow compaired to the previous couple of winters. Temps generally below average.

Jan-Feb will see a combination of predominantly dry and cold weather with any snow likely to come from northerly topplers and there will also likely be occasions where we end up in SWerly, milder cloudy and damp weather. I think Feb will be the milder of the two months with both coming in above average for temps, leading to an early spring feeling as we head into March 2012.

Edit 21/10/2011

What I will add is that I do firmly believe that Winter will again kick off early and the UK "as a whole" will fair less in terms of snow. However during the early part of Winter from the End of November into December, some parts may receive more but certainly not as wide spread as last year.
Overall I susspect winter will turn out another "largely Dry but Cold" affair taking into account 3 months of winter DEC JAN FEB, that is despite the possibilty of SWerlies effecting our weather which I think would be temporary anyway due to HP managing to ridge just over the UK.

Now, with HP currently being quite robust to our east and the models continuously wanting to Keep heights to our NE, this could tie in with HP ridging over the UK but weak and the possibillty of winter snow favouring NW UK over the NE and East via Northerly topplers with more of a NWerly flow.
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u and your mildness gavin god knows what your giong to do in winter when theres no warm weather around think its time u turned in a cold fan now as summer is well and truely gone in my opintion. bck on topic and i think that we see some early snow in october and frosrts will everywehere by then. even now looks like we could get frost next week. november will be cold and snowly december much milder with rain and mild tempertures. jan looks like being very cold with the heavy snow in eastern areas with that bitter east wind. feb will be ike this feb just gone very mild all month with heavy rain and very mild days and nights.

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Looking back at this blog / forecast, I actually wasn't too far off the Mark in terms of it being a dryer than normal winter, cold at times and February was one of the mildest Febs on record.

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