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Rain Watch - 6th August

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Paul

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As has been forecast for the last few days, we're seeing some really heavy rain moving up through Northern England and into Scotland today, already there are reports of flooding according to the BBC:

[url="http://bbc.in/p1HDy3"]http://bbc.in/p1HDy3[/url]

And you can see why - this is the 12 hour accumulated rainfall taken from the radar:
[attachment=120347:raintotal12hrs.png]

And this is the position of the rainfall as I type this update:
[attachment=120349:rainradarlatest.png]

The rain will continue northward during the evening and is expected to pivot across Scotland so some really large falls possible through the southern half of the country in particular. The NMM (netweather's high resolution forecasting model) showed these as the forecast 36 hour rainfall totals this morning:
[attachment=120348:36hraccum.png]

There will be some variation to that though as it's very difficult to model the precise spots where the heaviest rain will be - next update to the model will be through in around an hour...

So what is the reason for the rain? It's being caused by a small, low pressure system running up the eastern side of the country, the air ahead of it is very unstable which is why we're seeing thunderstorms and the heavy rain. By midnight tonight it's expected to be centred fairly close to Edinburgh, before it changes direction and eventually moves away into the north sea tomorrow. By the time it's done so some regions of northeast England, southern and central Scotland could well have seen upwards of 100mm of rainfall, so it's really packing a punch..

Flooding info:
England - [url="http://bit.ly/qzqnSD"]Environment Agency[/url]
Scotland - [url="http://bit.ly/qfomh4"]SEPA[/url]

We'll update the blog with more snippets and discussion during the evening and into tomorrow.

[b]Update - 21:55 Saturday[/b]
Latest NMM shows a similar picture with the heaviest rain just a little way further east - this is the next 36 hours totals:
[attachment=120356:36hr12z.png]

Currently the rainfall is mainly affecting the central belt and eastern Scotland
[attachment=120357:currentrain2145.png]

And the 12 hour totals continue to mount up!
[attachment=120355:12hrs2145.png]

Rain will be slow to clear Scotland tomorrow with further heavy showers topping up the totals, it's also worth nothing the pretty high rainfall totals forecast for the western England and Wales into tomorrow as well - these are due to a batch of heavy, thundery showers which will develop during the day.
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