Zenarcher's Blog

Im really unsure about the extent of the cold we may or may not see this winter. On the one hand, it is no doubt altogether more likely to see colder winters than what we saw pre 2008 given the lower sun spots, colder atlantic, colder pacific, cold last 3 winters, a potentially -NAO and a fluctuating Jet stream - but whilst that is all true (not to mention the many volcanic eruptions we've seen this year - with the potential for Katla and/or Hekla to blow up in Iceland) I'm leaning toward the theory that most of the variability in our annual weather results from the solar cycles and sunspot activity. Given the vastly increased number of sunspots in comparison to the last 2 winters (we have only had a sunspot free sun 1 day in 2011 compared to over 200 in 2009 and 50 in 2010) it could then mean that we have an altogether warmer winter than we've seen in the last two years - but not as warm/mild that we saw before those. I'm not really sure what that means in terms of the weather - and of course, Dec 2010 was worse than Dec 2009 and had more sunspots - but it's just a gut feeling that it won't happen AGAIN. We are also heading toward a few years of higher solar activity before it drops off (potentially toward a new Grand Minimum in the worst or best case scenario) after 2013/14. I was away in Israel all of last winter so missed everything (gutted about that) and so want a mega winter to happen again, just doubt it as a possibility though. If i had to make a forecast, based off the last few experiences, i'd say your fairly close - Dec or Jan I think would be colder than February - although there, at this stage is nothing to support this theory and its just a guestimate.

If there is another Volcanic eruption in Iceland (Katla looks more likely to blow than Hekla with a magma bulge beginning to appear (Mt.St.Helens esk)) then I think the probability of a cold winter would shoot up - depending on the nature of the eruption of course. If it is like Mt.St.Helens then of course it would make minimal difference, plenty of Ash is required. *please*

The ENSO state does look fairly helpful though whether that will actually be a major driver in our winter (it didn't appear to be in 09/10 and the strong La Nina norm only seemed to kick in after that incredible December last year) remains to be seen. Perhaps it is too much to expect a third consecutive winter where there is at least one historically cold month but given the generally suppressed solar activity, the continued impact of volcanic activity and the apparent trend since 2007 away from a strong, northerly tracking jetstream I think it would be hard to rule anything out at this stage.

As was just pointed out on TWO yesterday - the NOAA which last winter accurately spotted the December Cold in September is now predicting a cold NOV-DEC-JAN and an average DEC-JAN-FEB. For what its worth the whole of Autumn is also forecast as below average - November, according to this forecast, is the month to look out for snow wise. (although I know it is obviously ridiculous to make such a claim at this stage). The key will, IMO, be the Jet stream - which atm is paying a visit down to Spain atm - the kind of thing it has done in previous winters.

link here: [url="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif"]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif[/url]

Heres the breakdown - Very cold November, part cold/part average December, Average January
[url="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif"]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif[/url]