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Christmas Forecast 2010

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LomondSnowstorm

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This is my first blog of the 2010/2011 winter, and so far we've had over 2 foot of snow falling. But that means nothing if Christmas is a slushy washout, right?
Well perhaps that's an exaggeration but a white Christmas really would top this month off very nicely. Of course there are three types of white christmas. There's the met office definition of a flake falling at one of their weather stations (initially it was on central London but was widened out to major cities in other parts of the UK creating a major betting market). This can be as lovely as an all day blizzard or as awful as a rainfall with a few flakes mixed in. Edinburgh and Glasgow both saw some flakes last year. The second type is what most of Scotland and northern England had last year - mostly dry, with snow cover. Arguably this is better than the first type but having rutted dirty ice on the ground is not particularly brilliant either. The third type is the one that Bing Crosby dreamt of with such mistaken nostalgia. Deep, crisp and even snow cover with some snowfall on the day also.
What we appear to be looking at for Christmas Day 2010 is generally a colder than average day for most areas.
The general pattern appears to be that high pressure will be situated to the north and east with a major low pressure system approaching from the southwest, and the affectlong range pattern looks to be dependent on the development and placement of a shortwave to the northwest of the UK.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif The UKMO would give rainfall to the south of England, and possibly a few showers in Eastern England. Scotland would be mostly cold and dry with a few snow showers to northeastern coasts.
With the GFS we end up in a col between cold northeasterlies and a Tropical airmass, meaning largely dry for most of the UK with surface cold. Again, a risk of rain and high ground snow in the far southwest http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20101219/12/153/h500slp.png http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20101219/12/138/h500slp.png
The ECM, well it spoils the party somewhat. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif Low pressure blasts mild air up the core of the UK, leading to a snow to rain event in the north but a speedy thaw further south and west http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif .
Another thing to be considered is the ensembles, which at the moment suggest a Christmas Day breakdown for southern and central Britain, though given their volatility I wouldn't trust this either.
There's a lot of uncertainty clearly as to how things will pan out, but generally, out of 4 santas, each regions chances of a white christmas on the ground (by northern Scotland I would include areas north of Angus) :
South West England(away from the Moors) [img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img]
South East England [img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img](+1/2)
Midlands [img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img][img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img]
Northwest England [img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img]
Wales [img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img][img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img]
Northern Ireland [img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img][img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img][img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img]
Eastern Scotland [img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img][img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img][img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img]
Western Scotland [img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img][img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img](+1/2)
Northeast England [img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img][img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img][img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img]
East Anglia [img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img](+1/2)
Northern Scotland [img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img][img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img][img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img][img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img]
Yorkshire [img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img][img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img]
As for snow falling, a much more volatile beast:
Southwest England [img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img](+1/2)
Southeast England [img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img]
Midlands [img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img](+1/2)
Northwest England [img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img]
Wales [img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img]
Northern Ireland [img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img]
Eastern Scotland [img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img](+1/2)
Western Scotland [img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img][img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img]
Northeast England [img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img]
East Anglia [img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img]
Yorkshire [img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img]
Northern Scotland [img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img][img]http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/smiliz19.gif[/img]
These are assuming your average low ground locations in these areas and are mostly conjecture at the moment!
Merry Christmas!
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Thanks for that LSS. I hope you have nailed it, coz so far this winter you have been pretty much spot on. :clap:

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Thank you,this would be very seasonal up here as a backdrop to the decorations.God job I lifted the parsnips for Chrismas Lunch from the garden a week ago!!!!!

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I was a bit conservative with my estimates and there was a possibility of rain arriving by late evening on Christmas, so in hindsight Wales should've got at least 3 1/2 santas. Perhaps I should narrow it down to city centres also, but in all fairness it was a fun Christmassy post and I was forced to limit the number of santas each rating could have!

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In fact as my general overview points out at the time the ECM was blasting +3 uppers up the country by midday Christmas.

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