My Early Views On This Upcoming Coldspell
Entry posted by Harsh Climate
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Once high pressure establishes itself over greenland early next week its not going away any time soon. You see the upstream signals are for the telleconections to become really quite negative, meaning our part of the northern hemisphere will be dominated by anti-cyclonic weather, as the jetsream will have died down or pushed further south... Once we get into this type of pattern it becomes really quite difficult to shift! As some deep cold air shold have moved into parts of europe which can have a tendancy to back westwards.. And because there will be WAA heading up the western side of greenland, just reinforcing our greenland high.
I think if milder weather does move in anytime soon it is more likely due to our block shifting too far north or west, allowing the atlantic to squeeze its way through.. For me I cant see this happening quickly and if it did I think the block would soon re-esert itself becase alslong as the tellectonections are strongly negative the jet stream (our prevailing wind) will remain further south or quiet allowing high pressure to influence our weather :)
NAO
[url="http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif"][color="#284b72"]http://www.cpc.noaa....a/nao.sprd2.gif[/color][/url]
AO
[url="http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.fcst.gif"][color="#284b72"]http://www.cpc.noaa....dex/ao.fcst.gif[/color][/url]
These are the main telleconections, while these are highly negative we will not see any prolonged zonality..
So basically I reckon this upcoming cold spell will be mainly dry to start with with wintry showers in northern and eastern areas. But as time goes on there will be a threat of snow to western/southern areas as the atlantic tries to come in.. but i think even if it does turn temporarily milder, high pressure will soon assert itself allowing colder conditions to return.
I think we just need to be patient as these 'slow burner' type setups can just throw you nice suprises out of nowhere and defy what the models are showing you at medium range..
I think if milder weather does move in anytime soon it is more likely due to our block shifting too far north or west, allowing the atlantic to squeeze its way through.. For me I cant see this happening quickly and if it did I think the block would soon re-esert itself becase alslong as the tellectonections are strongly negative the jet stream (our prevailing wind) will remain further south or quiet allowing high pressure to influence our weather :)
NAO
[url="http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif"][color="#284b72"]http://www.cpc.noaa....a/nao.sprd2.gif[/color][/url]
AO
[url="http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.fcst.gif"][color="#284b72"]http://www.cpc.noaa....dex/ao.fcst.gif[/color][/url]
These are the main telleconections, while these are highly negative we will not see any prolonged zonality..
So basically I reckon this upcoming cold spell will be mainly dry to start with with wintry showers in northern and eastern areas. But as time goes on there will be a threat of snow to western/southern areas as the atlantic tries to come in.. but i think even if it does turn temporarily milder, high pressure will soon assert itself allowing colder conditions to return.
I think we just need to be patient as these 'slow burner' type setups can just throw you nice suprises out of nowhere and defy what the models are showing you at medium range..
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