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A Clearer Image Of The Upcoming 2010 Hurricane Season....

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kold weather

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Being we are now in Mid April I thought it was about time I did a little update on some of the major signals out there in both the Pacific and the Atlantic at the moment because they are becoming much clearer IMO.Firstly Atlantic temperatures are still at record breaking levels with March coming in 0.2C above the closest other month at 1.32C above normal, March 1969, which was a previous record for *any* month, thus March 2010 had the warmest oceans for the time of the year of any month...and April likely will be at very similar levels given there is only slight cooling signs in more SW parts of the Atlantic at the moment. I see no real sign of any fliparound of this pattern in the MDR zone as the -ve AO that caused the extreme pattern is showing real signs of re-invigorating again on the models over the next 10 days or so....Years that have featured very warm Marches/Aprils include 1958, 1969, 1998 and 2005, all had extreme seasons....The long range models are suggestive of the warmest anomalies shifting westwards, akin to what we saw in the Spring of 2005 and heled lead to the obviously extreme action we saw that year. The CFS also calls for the Gulf of Mexico to warm up greatly over the next 2-3 months reaching average and even slightly above in places by the time we get to August, and given how shallow the Gulf is that is quite plauseable even though the Gulf is still below average. Another long term factor that is becoming increasingly clear is that of the ENSO. In the last 2-3 weeks the El Nino finally has started to breakdown, with some fairly decent weekly drops now taking the EL Nino into the weak range at 0.8C, indeed daily figures are now down to 0.7C, so the weekly figure will likely drop again on the next update. Subsurface temps have really cooled off with large areas now below average and generally other factors aloft suggest the El Nino is on the way out.The models all suggest we will be in the neutral zone by June and given the current goings-on in the ENSO regions I see no reason to not agree with that. A slight westerly rebound is occuring in the trades which is usually what you see with El Ninos, which maybe suggestive of the El Nino trying one last time to sustain itself, but I suspect all it'll do is slow the drop into neutral. After June and July uncertainties begin to creep in again however either way conditions aloft will likely be condusive for an active season.It is also worth noting the ECMWF long range forecast for the summer is VERY condusive for an active season, SST's stay well above average, precip is well above normal along the main Wave train route and the model also calls for a higher then normal chance of below normal pressures, indeed the ECM is very below normal in parts of the Caribbean and W.Atlantic. All this screams hyperactive and probably a good chance of a top ten most active season since 1850.Finally, my current call is 16/9/4. I won't revise this again but as I said in another thread, I suspect my numbers have a risk of being too low, which would be quite amazing given those numbers are well above average as it is!
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Thanks Kold for a brilliant update on the situation, very clear and precise and an enjoyable read. Certainly going to be a very interesting season, keep us updated if you can on the approach to the season!

Cheers, SS

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agreed very good and intresting read thanks for takeing the time to post it :)

can i ask a favour though?

I have an online facebook 2010 hurricane group and was woundering as long as its ok with you to post links to your blog on the page with all cridit of course going to you?

thanks

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Hi Cookie, sorry its taken this long to respond back, but yeah feel free to do that if you want mate!

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