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My Thoughts On April

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Ben_Cambs

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Three years ago to this day, High pressure began to build over the UK which lead to the warmest and driest April on record. Cambridge only recorded 0.4mm of rain, which is exceptional, with a maximum temperature of 23.9C on the 11th April 2007, with some places on this day along the south recording 26C. Yet the next month 131mm of rain fell, as a +ve NAO dominated with a Northerly tracking jetstream then bringing the wettest summer on record, with many places seeing more than double the average summer rainfall. But what will this coming April bring? And is there a correlation between the weather in April and the Summer?

Starting with Easter Sunday, A band of lively rain with the possibility of thunder will affect the SE and parts of EA, while in Northern Scotland, rain with hill snow will gradually die out by the morning. The day itself should be many dry with an isolated shower. Into the afternoon it will cloud over in the west, and by the evening will affect Northern Ireland and Ireland. Temperatures will range between 7C in the North to 12C in the South. The rain later in the day will spread North East into NW Scotland, NW England and may be a cause of concern because with snow melt over the hills of NI especially, it could cause localised flooding. The rain may persist into Tuesday in these areas, and will continue to spread northeast but otherwise mainly dry for all other areas. A warmer day on Tuesday, reaching up to 15C in the South to 11C in the North.

A Warm front will affect England and Wales on Wednesday, and will herald a change, with HP building from the South West. How warm and sunny depends where the HP will end up. Ideally for 20C+ you would want pressure to build to the South East which allows a warm southerly flow. That seems very unlikely though. Here is a chart from April 2007, in which that happened:
[attachment=99371:Rrea00120070411.gif]

The most likely place it will set up shop is just North of Scotland. This would result in days with sunny skies with a little cloud across western areas, but further east you would encounter more cloud. As of today, ECM would be the best solution for all areas. Temperatures will mostly be between 13-17C, 20C would be near impossible in this setup. The Atlantic will finally be put out of action for a while and will be welcomed by many (including me). How long will this theme last for though?

From the latest synoptics, it should last at least a week- 10 days. But over time I do think HP will begin to lose its influence and may 1. Possibly sink under Atlantic LP's 2. Sink southwards but heights may build again later in the month.
Intrestingly enough though, we still have the influence of blocking to the North with a -ve AO, but the northern arm of the jet has strengthened somewhat recently. Therefore, I would put the risk of a Northerly outbreak occuring between 2nd-3rd week of April at 25%. If one did occur, it would only be a temporary one and would be toppled quickly. I think the last week of April may be Atlantic dominated at this stage, but that is my guess and can easily change.
So in summary:

1st week: Wet and windy at first but HP builds from the South and West later in the week
2nd: Dry, settled, calm with some cloud especially in Eastern areas.
3rd: HP loses influence opening up a possible Atlantic attack or even a possible Northerly incursion
4th: Atlantic dominated, spells of rain interspersed with brighter and sunny spells.

Certainly no April 2007 on the horizon but it will feel pleasant in the sun, so enjoy the upcoming weather and Easter!
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