Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
  • entries
    17
  • comments
    68
  • views
    51,661

Mr Data On The Era Of Modernity In Light Of The Winter Of 2009/10

Sign in to follow this  
LomondSnowstorm

1,295 views

[quote name='Mr_Data' date='01 March 2010 - 23:02 ' timestamp='1267484559' post='1791704'][quote name='North Sea Snow Convection' date='01 March 2010 - 13:17 ' timestamp='1267449454' post='1791378']All this winter has done is confirm my own expectations as to the sort of winter that is still possible to experience in the UK. Indeed colder one's than this are still possible.[/quote]Yes, it has surpassed for coldness at least for the CET the winters of the 1900s, 1930s, 1950s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000sThere were only one colder from the 1910s, 1920s, 1960s and 1970s with three colder from the 1940s.It is probably the 8th coldest winter since 1900 for the CET.There is one person who has been very quiet and that is Ian Brown. For the last few years, he has bombarded the forums with his modern winter, modern "era" theories etc and has been on the record saying that even a 1995-96 may not be achievable anymore. How on earth is he going to explain this? It was obvious to me even if there is a trend in one direction there were too many variables and random elememts to dismiss possibilities. Why Ian could not see this is beyond me.His theory is in tatters, his benchmarks surpassed. This winter has been absolute disaster for him as he says he has written a book ironically called "At least it will be mild".[/quote]Source: [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/61869-what-are-peoples-expectations-for-201011-winter/page__view__findpost__p__1791704"]What Are People'S Expectations For 2010/11 Winter?[/url]
Sign in to follow this  


9 Comments


Recommended Comments

My opinion has always been that Ian's "modern winter" theory has had some truth behind it- Northern Hemisphere temperatures have definitely risen (albeit only by about 0.5C since the 60s/70s so far) and there is evidence to suggest that a warmer world would promote a stronger and more northerly tracking jetstream. But on the other hand, there's also some evidence suggesting that the synoptic trends since 1988 were, at least in part, caused by natural variability and liable to flip back towards a colder winter regime for NW Europe. The problem has always been the overly "black and white" perspective on the "modern winter".

This winter has shown that global warming is a long way off preventing us from having cold snowy winters. A winter like 1947 or 1963, with 0.5C added to the temperatures, would still be very cold, and snow amounts would most likely only be slightly less. Given this 0.5C differential it's probable that this winter has, synoptically, been as cold in Scotland as 1962/63.

To be absolutely fair to Ian Brown, though, he did admit defeat in the thread dedicated to his winter forecast.

Share this comment


Link to comment
Guest Ian Brown

Posted

Certainly I accept what has happened, high latitude blocking in the winter months that I thought no longer possible has occurred. There is not going to be a book.

Share this comment


Link to comment
[quote]There is one person who has been very quiet and that is Ian Brown. For the last few years, he has bombarded the forums with his modern winter, modern "era" theories etc and has been on the record saying that even a 1995-96 may not be achievable anymore. How on earth is he going to explain this? It was obvious to me even if there is a trend in one direction there were too many variables and random elememts to dismiss possibilities. Why Ian could not see this is beyond me.

His theory is in tatters, his benchmarks surpassed. This winter has been absolute disaster for him as he says he has written a book ironically called "At least it will be mild".[/quote]

Yes what an absolute disaster for him and his small legion of fans, what was laughable was how he stuck to his mild rhetoric even in February after the persistent wintry weather we had gone through in December and January, it was pretty disastrous for the UKMO as well, i feel the last few years poor seasonal forecasting by them has in part lead to them abandoning doing anymore seasonal forecasts, they are much better doing weekly/monthly forecasts.

Another point worth bringing up are the unrealistically high expectations alot of posters have regarding our climate, it seems the coldest UK winter in over 30 years, the coldest scottish and N ireland winter in almost 50 years and a very cold start to March isn't enough to stop them throwing their toys out of their pram.






Share this comment


Link to comment
[quote name='Ian Brown' date='03 March 2010 - 22:15 ']Certainly I accept what has happened, high latitude blocking in the winter months that I thought no longer possible has occurred. There is not going to be a book.[/quote]
It takes a real scientist to admit that he was wrong, and to be fair to you the post-87 winters have been very lacking in northerly blocking up until now.[img]http://forumcache.netweather.tv/public/style_emoticons/default/good.gif[/img]

Share this comment


Link to comment
[quote name='Ian Brown' date='03 March 2010 - 22:15 '] Certainly I accept what has happened, high latitude blocking in the winter months that I thought no longer possible has occurred. There is not going to be a book. [/quote]

Fair play for admitting defeat Ian - you are far better than the Met Office in that respect!

Share this comment


Link to comment
Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Posted

Yes unfortunately the Met Office have been full of trying to justify how well they have handled the evolution of this winter and completely forgetting in the process that they had predicted or expected anything but!

I genuinely think they agreed with the likes of Ian B in terms of writing off the chances for a cold blocked winter as a whole. Indeed a senior spokesman for ECMWF when speaking in one of those biased BBC programmes in the last year or so about (A)GW was expressing his own doubts for a re-occurance of a prolonged high latitude blocked winter occuring again as a 'casuality' of the changes that have apparently occured.....They were in obvious shock though at the start of January at the way the winter pattern was developing as if they couldn't believe it was actually happening.

Very poor tbh. Ian Browns theory may be in tatters, but at least he was quick to admit it was wrong. All we got from the Met Office was Mr McCallum, for eg, arrogantly trying to stick to the old Met office line. And people wonder why there is a beilef in a few of us that too much alleged climatical trends comes into their seasonal forecasts.

Well they have got their hands deservedly burned this winter.....

Share this comment


Link to comment
[quote name='LomondSnowstorm' date='04 March 2010 - 16:48 ']
It takes a real scientist to admit that he was wrong, and to be fair to you the post-87 winters have been very lacking in northerly blocking up until now.[img]]
[/quote]

A real scientist/expert wouldn't say that there has been a fundamental shift in the British climate based on 22/23 years of evidence which is nothing in climatological timescale terms. Then again Ian is just an amateur, he isn't an expert nor a scientist on the subject.

Share this comment


Link to comment
×
×
  • Create New...