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What on earth happened there?

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Well...well. All these early forecasts of an average (or even below average) April seem to have gone to pot as yet another notably above-average CET month looks almost certain now. Early indications on the 30th March suggested a mid-April cool down from the NOAA teleconnection ensembles; with a suggestion of notable 500hpa geo-potential heights and a cool downover Greenland and Scandi alternatating between cut-off Euro highs. Unfortunately, the mid-month cool down has turned out to be a minor blip with a cut-off northern jet keeping the British Isles bathed in high pressure whereas the med experiences shallow lows and average temps. No sign of a strong polar jet driving southward into Europe either, therefore the cold tropospheric polar-gyre migrates eastward to Scandi and the cold feed enters north-eastern Europe but collapses somewhat with instability reserved for that region but little other precipitation for the rest of Europe. No sign of rain in the near future and the Atlantic looks somewhat subdued; despite signs of a flatter southern arm the pv circulation seems to somewhat retreat back to Greenland late April but thanks to our heights in the sub-tropics re-developing and a bifurcation in the southern jet just at our longitude; the British Isles is always somewhat influenced by the lid of high pressure ridges. The west of the UK will see showery rain from time to time, by the months end and cooler westerly incursions look likely. However, when I say 'cooler' it doesn't mean particularly cool....thanks to a constant sub-tropical element lingering in the flow.

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