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Glastonbury 2016 Festival - Blog 4 Issued 8th June 16

This is my final blog for Glastonbury 2016; however there will official forecasts appearing shortly on the Net Weather website to keep you all up to date.I will also try to contribute a little to the Glastonbury blog a little over the next few weeks. This blog will again feature the NOAA surface pressure charts and the latest ensemble forecast, and while it is still far too early to get any accurate picture, we can perhaps get an idea of the weather leading into Glastonbury. NOAA Pressure Charts   6-10 Days The trend was for low pressure to start to influence the weather over the UK; however these latest charts suggest more of a dominating pattern as opposed to an influence.   8-14 Days The trend of the last update was for Low pressure to be in charge over the UK, but there were hopes that the influence of the Low Pressure was starting to reduce, as the deepest of the low pressure moved away to the North West. However the last couple of days show the Low Pressure dominance as much as ever. As these charts now cover the period towards the start of the festival, this is starting to look a little ominous.   Ensembles Pressure   There is solid agreement in things turning very unsettled into next week and if the Glastonbury festival opened its doors next week, it would most likely be a soggy affair. However is set to rise back to around 1020mb by the start of the festival, so perhaps things turning a little better.   Rainfall Into next week, and rainfall amounts are set to rise as mentioned above. As we move towards the Glastonbury festival, things turning a little drier and although not completely dry. Temps The trend is far temps to fall next week, but perhaps a slight signs of things warming up a little before the festival, but no clear pattern as of yet. Met Office http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcn4fpj2y#?fcTime=1465430400 Through the weekend (before Glastonbury festival) and into the following week the northwest is likely to see much of any further rain, with the southeast expected to see drier conditions. Settled weather is most likely across north and northwestern areas through late June and early July. Southern and southeastern areas are more likely to see drier, warmer and sunnier conditions. Through the period this trend to more settled conditions is then expected to extend to most parts of the country.  Summary The theme is for things to get better closer to Glastonbury, the big question is will things get better in time for the festival, fingers crossed it will, and I hope everyone going to the festival has a great time.

J10

J10

 

Glastonbury 2016 Festival - Blog 3 Issued 5th June 16

This update concentrates on the NOAA pressure charts and the ensemble charts for the Somerset area. This will enable us to see what the current projections are to the run up to the festival. NOAA Updates Looking firstly at the 6-10 day outlook we can see the High Pressure scenario initially favoured being slowly edged away to the North and East, however without the Low Pressure starting to dominate as the longer term (8-14 day) outlooks would have suggested. Next onto the 8-14 outlooks, this continues the theme of turning unsettled from the South West, and by the 2nd June run (covering 10-16th June) has low pressure over the UK. However the latest run (4th June covering – 12th to 18th June) although still having low pressure around the UK, moves the centre of the low pressure away to the North West. With more a NW flow over the UK rather than a SW flow. So a trend to a slight improvement and possibly reverting back to something a little more settled before Glastonbury starts. Ensemble Runs Pressure The ensembles tend to suggest pressure dropping over the next week to average 1005mb, but then tending to rise close to 1015mb by around the 21st June.   Precipitation All runs show some precipitation for Somerset for much of the 2 weeks running up to the festival, some runs show some heavy rain at times, but most go for moderate rain at worst. Temperatures Currently the 850Hpa temps are around +10c, which are giving temps above 20c, over the next week or so these are set to fall back to +5c at 850Hpa, with maybe a slight increase before the festival. Met Office http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/area/south_west_england Looking rather unsettled for the mid part of June, but with some drier sunnier periods between the spells of rain. Into late June and early July, Turning generally drier, warmer and sunnier to the south and east, although still with a risk of some rain or showers at times. Temperatures improving over the period,so mild to warm. Summary If the Glastonbury festival was due to start a week earlier, I might be a little concerned for the festival weather, however the weather is set to improve towards the end of June, but will this come before or even during the festival period. My guess at this stage would be for a getting better sort of festival, with a better weekend than the runup. But if last year is anything to go by, things will frequently change before then.

J10

J10

 

Glastonbury 2016 Festival - Blog 2

This is the second blog for Glastonbury 2016. This will be largely concentrated on the NOAA charts over the past few days. Unfortunately they still do not run all the way to the start of the festival, but the longer term runs, now go up to 15th June,so about a week before the door opens. So perhaps we can start to see trends emerging. I will also look at the ensembles which now start to cover the start of the festival, a massive caveat in that these tend to change widely over time. 6-10 days These charts show the current general High Pressure pattern remaining in control, with winds perhaps turning more to the South East, warming things up a little. 8-14 days These charts are showing a slightly different picture, with the High Pressure being replaced by low pressure edging in from the South West turning things somewhat unsettled. Met Office UK Outlook for Thursday 16 Jun 2016 to Thursday 30 Jun 2016: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/area/south_west_england (Link) This suggests starting unsettled more especially for Southern and Western parts of the UK, presumably due to the lower pressure here, which ties in with the themes above. However it then suggests that while the overall weather remains rather mixed, but the best of the drier and brighter weather towards the south of the UK, where it will be warmer, this is quite positive for the Glastonbury festival period. Ian's Monthly Outlook Ian has done his regular excellent monthly forecast and it is well worth a read, the general theme is quite similar, but some differences in timings. (link below) http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=monthly;sess= Ensembles (GFS) These largely go with the theme of largely settled for the next week, turning unsettled for the following week, but again what follows? Outlook These charts of course can change, and indeed they did flip around somewhat last year but the general trend is for more unsettled conditions around a  week before the festival, and if this transpires, will they revert back to something a little drier before the festival. The next update over the weekend might give some clues.

J10

J10

 

Glastonbury 2016 Festival - Blog 1

Here is the first initial blog for the Glastonbury festival 2016. This will take the form of information from a number of sources. Of course this far out, it is very much an indicative look at best, and there will be many ups and downs to the forecasts. CFS Long Term – (Net Weather) The past two weeks of these runs have been attached. In each case the pattern from left to right is June forecast (23 May)                                    June forecast (29 May)                               July forecast (23 May)                                  July forecast (23 May) Precipitation June Rainfall generally around average, with July rainfall slightly above average. Temperatures June temps rising from slightly above average to above average. July temps stay at slightly above average. Pressure June Pressure slightly above average, more especially for Northern areas. July Pressure better in the south in the latest run. CFS (Meteociel) As ever there is a mix, but the general theme is for pressure to be slightly above average for both June and July, temps are set to be around or slightly above average. Rainfall is set to be below average for June, but for July the theme is for rainfall to be around average. Met Office and NOAA 6-10 day                                                         8-14 days These both tend to agree with the general theme of High Pressure for the UK for the start of June.   However this is centred towards the north of the UK. However as we move later into June, there are signs of lower pressure edging into the South West of the UK. Overall Quite a decent start to the forecasts, but still a very long time to go. The next update will be mid week probably Wednesday, and will tend to  focus more on teh NOAA forecasts as per above.

J10

J10

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 8 April 2016

Synoptic Summary and Current Conditions We are moving into the final parts of the skiing season, with many lower resorts starting to close down for the year and there were some very warm temperatures last week.
However there is still some good skiing conditions on upper slopes, with decent snow totals from heavy snowfalls past the New Year and a top up in some resorts in recent days. The weather pattern for the weekend sees low pressure to the South East of the Alps, with South Westerly winds over the Alps. During the course of next week, the pressure slowly builds to the South East of the Alps, however winds generally from the South West, and turning milder towards the end of next week. Alps Detail Saturday - Winds from the South West, coldest to the North and West, Mildest South and East
850Hpa temps +0c to +3c (French Alps, N Switzerland, N Austria, S Germany and Liechtenstein) FL 1400m to 2000m
850Hpa temps +4c to +7c (S Switzerland, Central and Southern Austria, Italy) FL 1800m to 2400m Sunday - Winds from the South East, coldest to the North and West, Mildest South and West
850Hpa temps +2c to +4c (French Alps, N Switzerland, N Austria, S Germany) FL 1800m to 2000m
850Hpa temps +4c to +7c (Switzerland, Central and Southern Austria, Italy and Liechtenstein) FL 2000m to 2500m Monday - Winds from the South West, milder generally
850Hpa temps +7c to +13c (generally) FL 2200m to 2600m (West) 2400m to 3400m (East) Tuesday - Winds from the South West, milder generally
850Hpa temps +7c to +11c (generally) FL 2200m to 2600m (generally) Wednesday – Winds generally from the West to North west, colder for a time in the West
850Hpa temps +3c to +7c and FL 2000m to 2400m (West)
850Hpa temps +8c to +13c and FL 2600m to 3200m (rest of Switzerland, Northern Italy and S Austria) Thursday - Winds from the South West, milder generally
850Hpa temps +7c to +13c (generally) FL 2200m to 2800m (generally) Friday – Winds from the South West, even milder
850Hpa temps +9c to +14c (generally) FL 2900m to 3200m (West) 3200m to 3500m (East) Precipitation
Saturday looks rather unsettled with some heavy showers, more especially for southern parts of the Alps. Snow generally above 2000m. Drier Sunday before more showers edge from the west Monday afternoon, lasting well in the evening. Snow generally above 2200m. Tuesday again drier, before an area of low pressure is set to move North Eastwards across the Alps during Wednesday, perhaps 20cm of snow possible above 2000-2200m. Looking largely dry for the rest of the week. Summary and Outlook
Spring conditions set to continue this week, However with some snow possible of the higher slopes, generally above 2000-2200m.
Quite mild at times, but generally not excessively mild for April, however possibly turning very mild just before next weekend.
       

J10

J10

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 1 April 2016

Synoptic Summary and Current Conditions
Snow conditions are starting to reflect that we are now in April, with spring snow conditions becoming more widespread, however good skiing conditions remain on the higher slopes (as ever). Charts – Weekend
High Pressure starting to build over Eastern Europe, with winds from a South to South Easterly direction bringing some very warm air up from Northern Africa. With general low pressure, some moderate precipitation, mostly rain is possible. Charts – Monday and Tuesday
Staying mild or very mild for the start of the next week and remaining unsettled with further moderate precipitation likely. Charts – Wednesday to Friday
Turning much colder from the West to North West, with a Polar Maritime airflow developing, remaining unsettled with a greater chance of snow.   Alps Detail
Saturday – Very mild winds from the South to South East
850Hpa temps +8c to +13c (generally) +2c to +5c (Eastern Austria) FL 2800m to 3400m (across the Alps) Sunday - Very mild winds from the South to South West
850Hpa temps +8c to +14c (generally) FL 2500m to 3000m (South and Western Alps) and 3200m to 3500m (Germany and Austria)

Monday - Winds generally from the West to South West
850Hpa temps +5c to +13c (generally) FL 2400m to 3000m (generally) Tuesday - Winds generally from the West to South West, slightly cooler from the west
850Hpa temps +6c to +12c and FL 2400m to 2700m (SW Germany, Switzerland, France, NW Italy)
850Hpa temps +10c to +13c and FL 2600m to 3200m (SE Germany, Austria, NE Italy, Liechtenstein) Wednesday – Winds generally from the North East, colder again from the North West
850Hpa temps +1c to +4c and FL 1600m to 2000m (French Alps, N Switzerland, Germany, N Austria)
850Hpa temps +4c to +12c and FL 2000m to 2800m (rest of Switzerland, Northern Italy and S Austria) Thursday – Winds generally from the North East, colder again from the North West
850Hpa temps -3c to +1c and FL 1000m to 1600m (West French Alps, N Switzerland, Germany, Far N Austria)
850Hpa temps +2c to +9c and FL 1600m to 2400m (East French Alps, rest of Switzerland and Austria, Northern Italy and S Austria) Friday – Winds generally from the North East
850Hpa temps -1c to +1c and FL 1000m to 1600m (Generally)
850Hpa temps +1c to +4c and FL 1400m to 1800m (S Switzerland, NW Italy, SW Austria) Precipitation
Weekend - Dry for the east of the Alps over the weekend, with some showers in the far South West on the Alps on East on Saturday. The showers developing a bit more widespread in the west later on Sunday, Snow above 2500m or so. Monday - Tuesday - Staying dry over the East of the Alps, further showers or longer periods of precipitation for the Western Alps at times, Snow again limited to above 2500m. Wednesday - Friday - Fronts edging in from the North West and crossing the Alps towards the end of week, on Wednesday snow about 2000m. However for Thursday and Friday, snow levels closer to 1000m-1200m with the chance of appreciable snow totals. Outlook - For the weekend and the start the next week, some very mild weather with some heavy rain likely in western Alps and some very warm sunshine for the Eastern Alps, sunscreen is a must. This is likely to severely impact the slopes especially lower down, however towards the end of the week, turning colder again with some fresh slopes down to medium slopes.

J10

J10

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 25 March 2016

Synoptic Summary and Current Conditions
Snow conditions remain generally good or very good across the Alps. Snow over Austria in recent days has improved the conditions here. Elsewhere there has been a lack of snow generally for the past week and on piste the conditions remain very good. However off piste conditions are worsening and some fresh powder is desired.
With temperatures dropping over recent days, spring snow has also been less of a problem. Charts - Saturday to Monday
For the weekend, low pressure moving the over the UK and into North Western Europe will try to edge South Westerly winds and unsettled weather over the Alps. For Saturday, it should remain mostly settled over the Alps as High Pressure hangs on. For Sunday and into next week, the fronts start to edge in over the Alps form the North West, bringing some moderate precipitation along with fluctuating temperatures.    Charts – Tuesday and Wednesday
By midweek, the flow turns more to a westerly with further mostly showery precipitation with 850Hpa temps generally above freezing, the precipitation concentrated in Northern and Western areas. Charts – Thursday and Friday
Towards the weekend low pressure to the south may introduce southerly winds with the risk of some very mild air, but this is a long way away at present. Alps Detail
Saturday – Winds from the South to South West, Turning milder from the West
850Hpa temps +2c to +8c and FL 1800m to 2400m (France, Switzerland, Northern Italy, Liechtenstein, SW Germany, Western Austria)
850Hpa temps -1c to +2c and FL 1400m to 1800m (SE Germany, Northern and Eastern Austria) Sunday - Winds generally from the South to South West, Turning colder from the North West
850Hpa temps -1c to +2c and FL 1400m to 1800m  (W France Alps, N and W Switzerland, Liechtenstein, SW Germany)
850Hpa temps +1c to +5c and FL 1800m to 2400m (Austria, S and E Switzerland, Northern Italy, E France Alps)

Monday - Winds generally from the West to South West
850Hpa temps +3c to +7c and FL 1900m to 2200m (generally)
850Hpa temps +1c to +3c and FL 1700m to 1900m (Far SE areas - SE Austria, NE Italy, and Far NW areas, NW Switzerland, Far SW Germany) Tuesday - Winds generally from the West, Low Pressure over the South of the Alps and milder here
850Hpa temps 0c to +2c and FL 1400m to 1800m (Southern Germany, N Switzerland, Liechtenstein, N and E Austria)
850Hpa temps +2c to +6c and FL 1800m to 2200m (S and W Austria, S Switzerland, Italy, France Alps) Wednesday – Winds generally from the West to South West, as Low peruse moves east over north pars of the Alps.
850Hpa temps 0c to +3c and FL 1400m to 2000m (N and W Switzerland, SW Germany)
850Hpa temps +4c to +8c and FL 2200m to 2600m (French Alps, rest of Switzerland,. SE Germany, Northern Italy and FL 2600m to 3000m ( Far east Austria) Thursday – Low Pressure over the Alps, much milder from the South
850Hpa temps +4c to +8c and FL 2400m to 2800m (generally) Friday – Huge uncertainty with GFS model runs varying 850HPa temps by as much as 15c for some parts of Austria, however more consistently showing looking milder weather to the south. Precipitation – A succession of fronts are set to move in this week from the west, most are cold fronts, with snow to quite low levels at times, especially to start the week. Weekend - Precipitation for Austria is expected to continue through Saturday morning, before decaying slowly during the afternoon, snow initially above 1000m, perhaps 1200m later. A cold front from the North West slowly edging east during Sunday, reaching central areas overnight before decaying in Austria Monday, Snow generally 1200-1400m on the front, but higher on the front edge of the front and over Italy, 1600-1800m here. Monday - Early Next Week
Later on Monday, the next front edges in from the west for Western parts of the Alps, with snow restricted above 1600m-1800m for daytime and evening. However as colder air pushes in from the west, snow levels falling back to around 1200-1400m overnight and into the morning, with a few more hours of precipitation for western areas, before it moves to Austria by early morning. Showers for Tuesday afternoon over Southern parts of the Alps with snow levels back up to close to 1800-2000m.Further showers seem likely on Wednesday, with snow above 2000m, there is a chance of frontal precipitation from the NW later with snow to 1400-1600m, but uncertainty as to its location. In terms of snow amounts, 25-50cm of snow are possible in places, above 1750-2000m, below 1500m though and the snow/rain mix is always likely to change. Outlook - So in summary a messy week, conditions look pretty good for Easter Weekend, with generally good snow conditions. For the first part of next week, a succession of fronts from the west will bring precipitation with snow likely above 1750-2000m and to lower levels at times.
Towards the weekend, perhaps turning very much milder from the south, but a lot of uncertainty.

J10

J10

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 18 March 2016

Synoptic Summary and Current Conditions
For this weekend there is High Pressure centred over the UK, the Alps on the South Eastern flank of the High Pressure, with a E to NE breeze and cool conditions for the Alps, also mostly settled. Charts - Saturday to Tuesday
The High pressure slowly edging away to the west, into the start of next week, allowing lower pressure to edge in for the South East, wins still from the East to North East.
Charts - Wednesday to Friday
Towards the weekend, the low pressure edging away to the east, with the Alps largely in-between weather systems. Alps Detail Saturday – Winds generally from the East, low pressure over the Southern Alps.
850Hpa temps -4c to +2c and FL 1000m to 1800m (South Eastern Germany, E Austria)
850Hpa temps +2c to +6c and FL 1800m to 2200m (W Austria, Switzerland, Italy, France Alps, SW Germany and Liechtenstein) Sunday - Winds generally from the North East, cooler from the north
850Hpa temps -2c to +2c and FL 1200m to 1800m (Southern Germany, N Austria)
850Hpa temps +2c to +6c and FL 1800m to 2000m (S Austria, Switzerland, Italy, France Alps) Monday - Winds generally from the East, cooler from the north
850Hpa temps -3c to +2c and FL 1200m to 1600m (Southern Germany, N Switzerland, N Austria and Liechtenstein)
850Hpa temps +2c to +6c and FL 1800m to 2000m (SW Austria, S Switzerland, Italy, France Alps) Tuesday - Winds generally from the East,
850Hpa temps -2c to +1c and FL 1200m to 1400m (Southern Germany, N and Central Switzerland, most of Austria and Liechtenstein, W French Alps)
850Hpa temps +1c to +4c and FL 1600m to 2000m (SW Austria, S Switzerland, Italy, E France Alps) Wednesday – Winds generally from the East,
850Hpa temps -4c to 0c and FL 1100m to 1400m (Southern Germany, N and Central Switzerland, most of Austria and Liechtenstein, W French Alps)
850Hpa temps 0c to +4c and FL 1400m to 1800m (SW Austria, S Switzerland, Italy, E France Alps) Thursday - Winds generally from the East,
850Hpa temps -4c to +2c and FL 800m to 1400m (Southern Germany, N and Central Switzerland, most of Austria and Liechtenstein, W French Alps)
850Hpa temps 0c to +4c and FL 1600m to 2000m (SW Austria, S Switzerland, Italy, E France Alps) Friday –
850Hpa temps -1c to +2c and FL 1300m to 1800m (Southern Germany, N Switzerland, most of Austria and Liechtenstein, W French Alps)
850Hpa temps +3c to +6c and FL 1800m to 2200m (SW Austria, S Switzerland, Italy, E France Alps)   Precipitation –
Mostly dry over the weekend, perhaps a few afternoon showers for Sunday afternoon in the southern half of the Alps. Into next week and more showers starting to develop Monday afternoon, and showers continuing through to Wednesday evening, with the showers always pepping up each afternoon.
Some showers are possible anywhere, but the heaviest and more consistent showers most likely for Italy, and southern parts of both Switzerland and Austria. Snow Amounts
Snow levels 1600-1800m Monday afternoon
1200m (Northern Alps) -1600m (Southern Alps) Tuesday afternoon
1200m (Northern Alps) -1400m (Southern Alps) Wednesday afternoon
Dropping to 1000m for the evening and overnight 10-25cm of fresh snow possible above 1800m for some central and southern parts of the Alps. Summary
A definite split in the weather, coldest towards the north of the Alps, always mildest for southern parts of the Alps, with freeze thaw conditions again.
Conditions are still good or very good; however the milder weather for southern areas means that slopes will soften again in the afternoon on lower slopes. 
However fresh snow will make conditions very good into Easter for the higher slopes.  

J10

J10

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 11 March 2016

Synoptic Summary and Current Conditions There is currently an elongated High Pressure covering a narrow strip from Scandinavia running through the UK down to the Azores, with the Alps on the SE side of the High with cold/cool NE winds. Lower pressure to the  South of the Alps over parts of Italy. Conditions over the Alps are very good generally with the recent heavy snowfalls over the past month, looking a bit drier for the coming week, with more in the way of sunshine, but some showers still possible at times more especially towards the South and South East of the Alps. Charts - Saturday to Tuesday

For the weekend, the high pressure is set to move a little to be centred over Southern Scandinavia/ NW Midland Europe, before moving further north to be centred over northern UK through to Scandinavia by Tuedays, The flow is generally set to be from the East for the Alps. Lower pressure never to far away from the south, and some showers are likely to build up from time to time especially in the afternoon and for more Southern parts of the Alps. Charts - Wednesday to Friday
A similar there towards the end of the week, perhaps with the pattern becoming a little more unsettled from the south, with a little more in the way of showers towards Friday. Alps Detail
Winds generally from an Easterly direction, with the coolest weather on the whole for N and E Austria, S Germany and N/NW Switzerland, milder further SW for SW Switzerland, NW Italy, and Eastern French Alps) Saturday –
850Hpa temps -4c to -2c and FL 1000m to 1400m (Southern Germany, N Austria, N Switzerland, Liechtenstein, W France Alps)
850Hpa temps -2c to +3c and FL 1600m to 2000m (S Austria, S Switzerland, Italy, E France Alps) Sunday -
850Hpa temps -4c to -2c and FL 1000m to 1400m (Southern Germany, N and E Austria, N Switzerland, Liechtenstein, W France Alps)
850Hpa temps -2c to +3c and FL 1600m to 2000m (SW Austria, S Switzerland, Italy, E France Alps) Monday–
850Hpa temps -7c to -5c and FL 800m to 1000m (NE Austria)
850Hpa temps -6c to -2c and FL 900 to 1400m (S Germany, Liechtenstein, N Switzerland, C Austria, W France Alps)
850Hpa temps -2c to +3c and FL 1600m to 2000m (SW Austria, S Switzerland, Italy, E France Alps) Tuesday–
850Hpa temps -7c to -4c and FL 800m to 1100m (E Austria, S Germany, N Switzerland)
850Hpa temps -3c to +1c and FL 1200m to 1700m (W Austria, S Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Italy, France Alps) Wednesday –
850Hpa temps -6c to -2c and FL 800m to 1000m (E Austria, NW Switzerland, S Germany)
850Hpa temps -3c to +1c and FL 1100m to 1600m (W Austria, rest Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Italy, France Alps) Thursday -
850Hpa temps -3c to 0c and FL 1000m to 1400m (Southern Germany, N and E Austria, N Switzerland, Liechtenstein, W France Alps)
850Hpa temps -1c to +3c and FL 1400m to 2000m (SW Austria, S Switzerland, Italy, E France Alps) Friday –
850Hpa temps -5c to -2c and FL 900m to 1200m (N and E Austria, NW Switzerland, S Germany)
850Hpa temps -2c to +2c and FL 1400m to 1900m (SW Austria, S Switzerland, Italy, E France Alps) Precipitation A drier week than recently, however some showers are likely to develop at times, these most likely for Southern and Southern Eastern areas, and many of these may develop for the afternoon, after a dry sunny morning. The showers are not likely to be focussed on certain areas as per the precipitation charts, but they may well be isolated and heavy in nature, Weekend
Showers tending to develop into the afternoon on both days, more especially for Austria, snow levels 1200m midday, down by 500m, by evening. Next Week
Drier Monday perhaps more general precipitation for Western areas Tuesday into Wednesday, with afternoon showers again developing further east, snow level 1200m midday, dropping back to 500m or so evening/overnight. Showery precipitation again developing for Southern areas Thursday and Friday, some of the showers heavy and prolonged, snow levels upto 1500m midday, dropping rapidly back to 500m for evening/overnight. Snow Amounts
Some topups can be expected, but less than recently generally, perhaps 25-50cm possible in some parts of Austria. Summary A drier and sunnier week over the Alps, but recent heavy snow should mean good conditions. The overnight very low temperatures and spring sunshine , should mean freeze thaw conditions, so a little icy for the morning and slushy for the afternoon, however better conditions expected on the higher slopes, say above 1500m. But overall a good week to go skiing, but take your sun cream.

J10

J10

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 4 March 2016

Synoptic Summary and Current Conditions
The clock has ticked on and all of a sudden, we have moved into Spring, and you would think that things may start warming up. However the weather has not been that mild, whit plenty of snow above 1500m, while at lower resorts there has rain one day, and snow the next. However colder in recent days, with more general snow to lower levels. Currently there a is a cool NW flow over the Alps, with low pressure to the north of the Alps. Charts - Saturday to Tuesday
A NW flow seems likely over the weekend, but switching round to an Easterly by Monday and generally unsettled for the most part with low pressure centred over Italy. 

  Charts - Wednesday to Friday
Unsettled with easterly winds to start, but High Pressure ridging up from the South West turning things much milder by Friday. Alps Detail Saturday – Turning colder from the North West, mild to start in Austria
850Hpa temps -3c to +2c and FL 800m to 1400m (France, Switzerland, SW Germany and Italy) (temps higher in the South)
850Hpa temps  +1c to +4c and FL 1400m to 2400m (Austria, SE Germany), (temps higher to the NE) Sunday –  Colder in most areas, but still a little colder to the North
850Hpa temps -5c to -2c and FL 700m to 1100m (Germany, Liechtenstein, Switzerland, N Austria)
850Hpa temps  -1c to +1c and FL 1100m to 1400m (S Austria, Northern Italy) Monday and Tuesday –  Similar temps to Sunday, winds now from the North East
850Hpa temps -5c / -6c to -3c and FL 700m to 1000m (S Germany, Liechtenstein, Switzerland, N Austria, France)
850Hpa temps  -2c to -1c and FL 1100m to 1300m (S Austria, Northern Italy) Wednesday –  A little less cold, winds still from the North East
850Hpa temps -5c to -4c and FL 800m to 1100m (S Germany, Liechtenstein, N Switzerland, Far N Austria, W France Alps)
850Hpa temps -3c to +2c and FL 1200m to 1800m (S Switzerland, most of Austria, Italy, E France Alps) Thursday – A little colder again, winds still from the North East
850Hpa temps -4c to -2c and FL 900m to 1100m (S Germany, Liechtenstein, Northern and Central parts of both Switzerland and Austria, W France Alps)
850Hpa temps  -2c to +2c and FL 1100m to 1600m (S Austria, Northern Italy) Friday – Somewhat milder from the west, as a Tropical Maritime airmass approaches
850Hpa temps -2c to +2c and FL 1200m to 1800m (S Germany, Liechtenstein, Austria, Northern Switzerland, NE Italy) (coldest over Austria)
850Hpa temps  +2c to +7c and FL 1800m to 2200m (S Switzerland, French Alps, N and NW Italy) Precipitation Weekend Heavy precipitation moving Eastwards across the Alps during Saturday, with the heaviest of the precipitation towards the south of the Alps. Snow level never above 1200m, and dropping to around 600m by Sunday morning. Further precipitation on Sunday, more especially for eastern areas, Snow levels riding to 800m (North) 1000m in (south) midday dropping back to circa 400m-600m by evening. Monday and Tuesday Further precipitation continuing through much of Monday and Tuesday for the Alps, with snow levels never above 1000m, and closer to 500-600m overnight. Wednesday to Friday Turning a bit drier fro a time midweek, with precipitation edging in from the west on Friday, with snow to 1600m-1800m. Snow amounts Charts from snow-forecast.com Quite widely over 50cm for Southern parts of the Alps over the next 72 hours above 1500m, with 75cm-1m in some parts, with up to 75cm, possible above 1000m.
A further 25-50cm possible over parts of the Alps for the following 3 days, this time with Central areas receiving more. Less snow expected to North Eastern areas, with 10-20cm more likely here this week. Summary
Another snowy start for the Alps this week, with snow to quite low levels, drier for a time midweek, before perhaps a little milder towards next weekend.

J10

J10

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 27 February 2016

Synoptic Summary and Current Conditions As we come to the end of the "winter" season, probably some of the best condition of the season for the Alps. Looking ahead another mixed week in prospect, mostly unsettled with all parts seeing some fresh snow at times but with fluctuating freezing levels, not for the first time. Charts - Saturday to Tuesday Low Pressure Centred over Northern Spain edging east into Northern Italy, keeping things very unsettled over the Alps, especially the Southern Alps. This only very slowly moves NEwards to clear the Alps late Monday. Turning briefly settled with a Ridge of High pressure for Tuesday.

Charts - Wednesday to Friday
North Western winds setting in and as as low pressure dives SE over Northern Europe, turning rather unsettled towards the weekend. Alps Detail Saturday – Turning milder as winds edge from the South / South East
850Hpa temps -5c to -3c and FL 800m to 1000m (Eastern Austria and far SW Germany)
850Hpa temps  0c to +4c and FL 1400m to 2000m (Western Austria, and the rest of the Alps) Sunday –  Turning milder as winds edge from the South / South East
850Hpa temps -1c to +1c and FL 1000m to 1600m (NW Switzerland and SW Germany)
850Hpa temps +2c to +5c and FL 1800m to 2200m (Italy, Austria, most of Germany, Germany, France, S and E Switzerland ) Monday – Colder from the North East, for Western areas
850Hpa temps -4c to -1c and FL 800m to 1200m (N Switzerland and SW and Central Southern Germany)
850Hpa temps -1c to +3c and FL 1200m to 1800m (Italy, Austria, SE Germany, Germany, France, S Switzerland)

Tuesday –
850Hpa temps -5c to -2c and FL 600m to 1200m (S Germany, Northern and Central Austria, N Switzerland)
850Hpa temps -2c to +2c and FL 1200m to 1800m (S Switzerland and NW Italy) Wednesday – Turning colder later in the day with North West winds
850Hpa temps -2c to +2c and FL 1000m to 1400m (S Germany, Northern and Central Austria, N Switzerland)
850Hpa temps +2c to +5c and FL 1800m to 2200m (S Switzerland, S Austria and Italy) Thursday – Easterly winds, cold to the North a little milder to the south
850Hpa temps -4c (N) to -1c (S) and FL 800m (N) to 1400m (S) Friday – Winds from the West to South West
850Hpa temps  0c to +2c and FL 1400m to 1600m (generally) Precipitation Weekend
A very wet weekend for Northern Italy, this fringing Southern parts of Switzerland and SW Austria at times, but otherwise mostly dry for the Alps. Snow levels forecast to be 1200m to start the weekend, rising to 1600m for Sunday. Early Next Week
The precipitation moving Northwards on Monday with some heavy bursts possible, but staying dry in the far west. The precipitation seems likely to be concentrated in Austria for Tuesday , and even here fading later in the day. Snow levels 1200m-1400m Monday daytime, falling to 600m Monday late evening, overnight and into Tuesday. Middle to End of Week
Precipitation edging in from the NW early Wednesday to give spells of wet weather for the Alps, most of the precipitation for NW parts of the Alps.
Snow Levels variable generally around 1000-1200m daytime, briefly 2000m Southern areas Wednesday, 600m-800m overnight. Summary
Another mixed week for the Alps, some heavy snowfalls possible for the higher slopes, but again with the risk of some rain at lower levels at times.

J10

J10

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 20 February 2016

Synoptic Summary and Current Conditions The conditions over the Alps over the past week have been the best over the Alps generally for this season, with good snow cover and fresh snow over many resorts. Currently looking rather mild over the Alps with winds for a westerly direction. Charts - Saturday to Tuesday A rather tricky position to gauge the Alps weather for this forthcoming week, it is set to tune much colder over much of North Europe, but current models suggest that it should remain milder for the Alps at least to start the week. Charts - Wednesday to Friday The same split in the weather between the colder weather to the north and the milder weather to the south. it does seems likely that it will turn colder from the north, with the models below, probably on the milder side of the models, in comparison ECM has it colder generally towards the weekend. As a result there is a lot of uncertainty as to where the dividing line will be. Alps Detail Saturday – A quite mild Westerly flow, remaining cooler in East
850Hpa temps -4c to -1c and FL 800m to 1200m (Austria and Eastern Alps)
850Hpa temps -1c to +4c and FL 1500m to 2100m (France, Switzerland and Western Alps) Sunday –  Much milder for all parts
850Hpa temps +3c to +4c and FL 2200m to 2400m (Germany and Northern parts of Austria)
850Hpa temps +4c to +7c and FL 2400m to 3000m (France, Italy and Southern parts of Austria and Switzerland) Monday – Mild with Westerly winds and a Tropical Maritime airmass
850Hpa temps +4c to +7c (generally, +2c to +4c locally) and FL 2800m to 3200m (France, Tuesday – Turning colder from the North West
850Hpa temps 0c to +3c and FL 1400m to 2000m (Germany, Austria, most of Switzerland and France)
850Hpa temps +4c to +6c and FL 1800m to 2200m (S Switzerland and NW Italy) Wednesday – Easterly winds, mild to the south, cold to the North
850Hpa temps -4c to -2c and FL 600m to 1000m (Northern parts of Austria and Switzerland, Southern Germany)
850Hpa temps -3c to +1c and FL 1400m to 1800m (Central Austria and Switzerland)
850Hpa temps +2c to +6c and FL 2000m to 2400m (Southern Austria and Switzerland, Italy) Thursday – Easterly winds, mild to the south, cold to the North
850Hpa temps -6c to -3c and FL 600m to 1000m (Northern parts of Austria and Switzerland, Southern Germany)
850Hpa temps -2c to +2c and FL 1200m to 1800m (Central Austria and Switzerland)
850Hpa temps +2c to +4c and FL 1600m to 2200m (Southern Austria and Switzerland, Italy) Friday – Winds from a general Easterly direction
850Hpa temps -4c to -2c and FL 600m to 1000m (Northern parts of Austria and Switzerland, Southern Germany)
850Hpa temps -2c to +2c and FL 1400m to 2000m (Central and Southern Austria and Switzerland, Italy) Precipitation
Some heavy precipitation seem likely over the Alps, over this weekend, with milder weather spreading in it seems that snow will be reserved to over 1800m, with over 20cm of snow possible. Thereafter apart from some patchy precipitation for Monday. It does seem likely that further precipitation seem likely from around Wednesday, with snow down to lower levels, possibly 1200m-1500m but this is very uncertain, depending on how far south the cold weather pushes. Snowfall
Snowfall totals 20mm possible over 2000m this weekend. Snowfall totals over 25cm possible over 1500m from Wednesday to Friday. Summary
A mixed week over the Alps, with rising and falling temperatures, Unsettled this weekend and towards next weekend.

J10

J10

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 12 February 2016

Current Synoptics and Conditions Some heavy snow fell over the past week in parts of the Alps, with very heavy snow at high altitude towards the west, with some rain at times on lower slopes. Synoptics Ongoing Rather unsettled to start the weekend, with winds for the West to South West, turning a little milder for a time Sunday. Into next week remaining unsettled with winds from the North East and turning a little colder. A little uncertainty towards the weekend, winds currently from a general Easterly direction, but either South Easterly or North Easterly, depending on this it may be cool or cold. the forecast temps below are based on the cool option. Charts - Saturday to Tuesday Charts - Wednesday to Friday Alps Detail Saturday – A cool West to South Westerly flow
850Hpa temps 0c to +2c and FL 1400m to 1800m (all except Eastern Austria)
850Hpa temps -3c to 0c and FL 1000m to 1400m (Germany, E and NE Austria) Sunday –  Milder to start, then colder from the North West
850Hpa temps +1c to +5c and FL 1400m to 2200m (all except NW Alps)
850Hpa temps -1c to +1c and FL 1000m to 1400m (SW Germany, NW Switzerland) Monday – Cooler Winds From East to North East, coldest NW, mildest South East
850Hpa temps -5c to -1c and FL 800m to 1200m (Northern parts of Austria and Switzerland, Southern Germany )
850Hpa temps -1c to +3c and FL 1400m to 1800m (Elsewhere) Tuesday – Winds From East to South East, coldest NW, mildest South East
850Hpa temps -5c to -1c and FL 800m to 1200m (Northern parts of Austria and Switzerland, Southern Germany )
850Hpa temps -1c to +4c and FL 1500m to 2100m (Elsewhere) Wednesday – Turning colder from the North West
850Hpa temps -3c to -1c and FL 800m to 1200m (Northern parts of Austria and Switzerland, Southern Germany )
850Hpa temps 0c to +2c and FL 1200m to 1800m (Elsewhere) Thursday – coldest NW, mildest South East
850Hpa temps -3c to -1c and FL 800m to 1200m (Northern parts of Austria and Switzerland, Southern Germany )
850Hpa temps 0c to +3c and FL 1400m to 2200m (Elsewhere) Friday – Winds veering North Easterly and turning a little colder
850Hpa temps -5c to -3c and FL 800m to 1200m (Northern parts of Austria and Switzerland, Southern Germany )
850Hpa temps -2c to +3c and FL 1400m to 1800m (Elsewhere) Total Precipitation
With low pressure over or close to the Alps, it is set to be an unsettled with periods of snow most days. While there are set to be heavy bursts of precipitation, most of this will be persistent as op;posed to heavy. As a result precipitation totals are set to be lower than last week generally, with 30mm-50mm widespread, upto 100mm over Southern parts of Switzerland, and under 25mm over NE Austria. Possibly a little drier towards next weekend. Total Snowfall (Estimates)
Above 1500m it looks as if it will be an all snow event, Snow Totals 50cm generally, 1m locally in parts of Switzerland, up to 25cm in Eastern Austria.
1250m-1500m Rain/Snow mix this weekend, thereafter a snow event 30cm generally, 50cm locally in parts of Switzerland, up to 15cm in Eastern Austria.
1000m-1250m Mostly rain this weekend, with a rain/snow mix thereafter, with upto 25cm of snow possible in places. Summary
An unsettled and snowy week for the higher Alps. SNnowfalls probably not as heavy last week, however lower freezing levels means more in the way of medium slopes snow.

J10

J10

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 7 February 2016

Current Synoptics and Conditions Rather mixed over the Alps in recent weeks some heavy snow at altitude but with temperatures never being that cold, some lower resorts seeing more in the way of rain than snow. Synoptics Ongoing This general theme continuing into next week, with winds generally from a westerly direction. It is unlikely to be very cold apart from a transient North Westerly flow and Polar Maritime airmass midweek.The flow also South Westerly at times, however no sign of the ridiculously mild air we have seen at times recently.This combined with generally unsettled weather means that there could be a lot of snow again for the higher resorts and slopes, as ever though the detail makes all the difference. Charts - Sunday to Tuesday
Charts - Wednesday to Friday
Sunday – Turning colder from the west
850Hpa temps -2c to +2c and FL 1200m to 1600m (France, W Switzerland, Italy and S Austria)
850Hpa temps +4c to +7c and FL 1800m to 2400m (Germany, N and NE Austria) Monday – Westerly winds
850Hpa temps +1c to +4c generally, locally +5 to +6c Switzerland/ Austria border
FL 1800m to 2200m generally Tuesday – South Westerly winds, cooler in the South
850Hpa temps 0c to +3c and FL 1600m to 2000m (Italy and Southern parts of both Switzerland and Austria)
850Hpa temps +4c to +7c and FL 1800m to 2400m (Germany, N and NE Austria) Wednesday – North Westerly winds, much colder from the North for all areas
850Hpa temps -6c to -3c and FL 800m to 1000m generally
850Hpa temps -3c to -1c and FL 900m to 1200m (Italy and far South of Austria and Switzerland) Thursday – South Westerly winds return, milder from the SW
850Hpa temps -3c to -1c and FL 1000m to 1400m generally
850Hpa temps 0c to +2c and FL 1400m to 1800m (France and W Switzerland) Friday – South Westerly winds return, milder from the SW
850Hpa temps 0c to +4c and FL 1200m to 1800m generally Total Precipitation There are too many potential snowfall events to try to go into detail this week with pretty much every day there are bands of precipitation edging in from the west. While Western areas are likely to see the bulk of the precipitation, most of these events are likely to push across further east, so most areas of the Alps are likely to see large precipitation totals this week, perhaps only the NE of Austria remaining relatively drier. The GFS 06Hz run suggests precipitation totals of up to 6 inches for France and W Switzerland, 2-4 inches E Switzerland, SW Germany and W Austria and 1-2 inches SE Germany, and Central Austria. NE Austria seems likely to be drier with only 10mm expected here, while N Italy looks likely to see 4-6 inches of precipitation. Total Snowfall The big question is how much of this will be snow, snow Estimates this week. Above 2000m it looks as if it will be an all snow event, Snow Totals 1m+ (west) up to 50cm-1m  Central areas.
1500m-2000m looks like the vast majority will be snow, and all snow from Midweek onwards Snow Totals 1m+ (west) up to 50cm-75cm  Central areas,
1250m-1500m Rain/Snow mix this weekend, Snow midweek, then more Snow than rain Thursday/Friday Snow Totals 20cm-50cm  (west) up to 50cm Central areas,
1000m-1250m Rain to start, Snow midweek, then a rain/snow mix thereafter
750m-1000m Rain to start and finish, mostly snow midweek (From snow-forecast.com) Precipitation Charts Summary A very unsettled and snowy week for the higher Alps. Probably not the best skiing conditions at times due to the heavy snowfalls, but this should help the ski season going forward.  

J10

J10

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 29 January 2016

Current Synoptics and Conditions
Some very mild weather over the Alps over recent days with South Westerly winds. However due to the previous heavy snow, still some very good conditions, although lower slopes were starting to suffer with thinning snow depths. Synoptics Ongoing Weekend
Mild South Westerly winds continuing to bring mild and settled weather over the Alps for Saturday morning and early afternoon. However a cold front is set to edge in from the north West later Saturday and into Sunday.  This will bring colder weather from the North West and heavy precipitation over much of the Alps for Sunday, more details on the expected snow level in the detailed section below. However turning a bit milder from the South West later in the day. Monday and Tuesday
Very mild South Westerly winds and High Pressure edging into the Alps for Monday and Tuesday, and any precipitation in the east quickly edging away, Freezing levels may reach 4000m for South Western parts of the Alps, but turning a little cooler from the North West later on Tuesday. End of Week
Continuing to turn much colder over the Alps with a Polar Maritime airmass affecting all areas by Thursday, and with fronts edging in bringing a snow risk across the Alps.
There are also signs of a further North Westerly outbreaks over the Alps into the weekend.
Alps Temperatures Saturday - Sunday
Mild to start, turning colder from the North West late Saturday into Sunday, before turning mild again from the South West later Sunday. Saturday
850Hpa temps +0c to +4c and FL 1800m to 2200m (Generally)

Sunday
850Hpa temps -4c to +2c and FL 900m to 1800m (Austria, colder in the east)
850Hpa temps +0c to +4c and FL 1800m to 2600m (France, Switzerland and Western Alps, milder to the SW) Monday – Tuesday
Turning much milder for Monday and to start Tuesday, turning a bit colder from the NW later into Tuesday evening.
Monday 850Hpa temps +4c to +11c and FL 3000m to 4000m (France, Switzerland and Western Alps, milder to the SW)
Tuesday 850Hpa temps +4c to +7c generally and FL 3000m to 3200m Wednesday - Friday
Colder again from the North West, but slightly milder again from the west on Friday
Wednesday 850Hpa temps -2c to +3c and FL 1200m to 2200m (colder North and West, milder to the South and Italy)
Thursday 850Hpa temps -4c to -7c and FL 600m to 1000m, perhaps locally 1200m in the south  (colder North and West, milder to the South and Italy)
Friday 850Hpa temps -1c to +2c and FL 1200m to 1800m (France, Switzerland and Germany) 850Hpa temps -2c to -7c and FL 600m to 1400m (Austria, coldest further east) Total Precipitation   There appear to be two main areas of precipitation this week.
A cold front is set to edge in from the North West later on Saturday across much of the Alps, and is set to remain over the much of the Alps on Sunday, before clearing Austria to the East early Monday.  Snow levels to start around 1200m to 1500m Saturday midnight, dropping to 1000m to 1200m by 6am Sunday, however increasingly steadily to around 2000m by midday Sunday for France, Switzerland  and other Western areas, and this spreading into Austria later.

Snow amounts possible (est) at 1000m 0cm (rain event) 1500m 20cm (rain later) 2000m 50cm (perhaps rain later in west) 2500m 50cm-75cm Then drier until midweek before another front edges down from  the North West around Wednesday, looking light to start but intensifying as it edges south. With the snow level  1400m on its leading edge, 1000m behind the front.  This is forecast to drop steadily through the event to 800m by midnight and to 600-800m during Thursday so a much better event for lower slopes and resorts than the one over the weekend. Snow amounts possible (est) at 1000m 15cm (rain to start) 1500m 20cm (snow preceded by rain) 2000m 30cm 2500m 40cm Summary
A complete mixed bag this week, Some snow at times for all, but also some rain for most late Sunday, Very mild indeed Monday and Tuesday.
Then colder from the North West with the forecast of snow for many, and looking cool, with the chance of further NW outbreaks into next weekend and quite possibly beyond.  

J10

J10

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 22 January 2016

Current Synoptics and Conditions After heavy snowfalls a few weeks and recent drier but very cold weather, skiing conditions remain very good. Settled conditions over the weekend should mean great skiing weather, but starting to turn milder again from the west. Synoptics Ongoing After models divergence in recent weeks, this week weather ifs much easier to forecast, however this does mean that conditions are set to turn very much milder from the West. In many ways this is a trade off, very good conditions to ski in, albeit with softening conditions in the afternoon. This is not good for long term snow retention, as ever higher slopes will be less affected for both. Weekend
High Pressure building over NW Europe, with milder weather starting to spread in from the west, with a warm front bringing some precipitation across the Alps on Saturday.
Very mild over the Western Alps by Sunday, staying much colder over Eastern Austria for most of Sunday, however turning more settled on Sunday. Monday and Tuesday
South Westerly winds spreading across all of the Alps by the end of Tuesday, with very mild and settled weather across all of the Alps by the end of Tuesday. End of Week
The pattern remains model unchanged, with south westerly winds and largely settled and mild conditions across the Alps, however perhaps cooler weather from the North West at times. Alps Temperatures Saturday - Sunday
For Saturday High Pressure centred to the North West Europe, with NE winds, but with the air originating from the SW increasingly over the weekend.
850Hpa temps +2c to -3c and FL Sea level to 600m (Eastern Austria)
850Hpa temps +2c to +3c and FL 1800m to 2100m (SW Alps) For Sunday, turning milder from the west.
850Hpa temps +2c to -3c and FL 900m to 2100m (Western Austria to Eastern Austria)
850Hpa temps +2c to +6c and FL 2100m to 2400m (France, Switzerland and Western Alps) Monday – Wednesday
Continuing to turn milder from the West, but settled conditions, with plenty of sunshine. Monday
850Hpa temps +2c to +5c and FL 1800m to 2400m (Western Austria to Eastern Austria)
850Hpa temps +5c to +8c and FL 2700m to 3000m (France, Switzerland and Western Alps) Tuesday
850Hpa temps +5c to +9c and FL 2600m to 3200m (colder Eastern Austria, mildest Western Alps) Wednesday
850Hpa temps +5c to +8c and FL 2400m to 3000m (colder Eastern Austria, mildest Western Alps) Thursday to Friday Perhaps turning slightly colder from the North on Thursday, perhaps a bit milder again from the east Friday.
850Hpa temps +4c to +7c and FL 2300m to 2700m (colder Germany , mildest Italy) Friday
850Hpa temps +0c to +4c and FL 1600m to 2400m (Austria, coldest further east)
850Hpa temps +3c to +4c and FL 2000m to 2600m (France, Switzerland and Germany) Total Precipitation
On Saturday, a front edges in from the west, bringing moderate precipitation in places, Snow levels around 1200m in Central/Western areas, well below 1000m in Austria, by the evening.
Thereafter, mostly dry this week, but perhaps some patchy precipitation in parts of Austria at times. Summary
Turning much milder from the west, however always that little bit colder in Austria, especially Eastern Austria. A better week for skiing in, than for the slopes themselves.

J10

J10

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 16 January 2016

Current Synoptics and Conditions Recent weeks has seen the Alps transformed with heavy snowfalls down to resort level, with superb on piste skiing conditions generally. However there is the concern of avalanches off piste, as shown by the tragic events the past week. This weekend temperature is set to remain very cold giving very good conditions over the Alps. Synoptics Ongoing Very much a classic battleground situation this week. Whenever cold air gets over Western parts of Europe, the Atlantic tries to fight back and re-establish control back over the weather. Usually the Atlantic eventually wins out, but it is seldom easy and often the blocks holds on longer than anticipated. So the detail for this week is very uncertain. Weekend High Pressure centred over North France with bitterly cold North Easterly winds over the Alps. Monday and Tuesday Signs of less cold air trying to edge in from the west, so a east west split, warmest in the west, coldest in the east. End of Week The battleground continues between the “mild” weather to the west, and colder air to the east. Where exactly the dividing line will be is very difficult to pinpoint on a daily basis. Current indications are that it will be less cold in western areas, but remaining very cold over much of Austria. Alps Temperatures and Rainfall (Snowfall) Saturday - Sunday For Saturday High Pressure centred to the North West of the Alps, with NE winds for all.
850Hpa temps -3c (W Italy) to -10c (NE Austria), and -6c to -8c over the majority of the Alps. FL 200m ((NE Austria), to 700m (generally) and 1000m (W Italy) For Sunday a bit colder form the North East.
850Hpa temps -6c (W Italy) to -11c (S Germany, N Austria), FL Sea Level (Northern Alps) to 400m (generally) and 700m (W Italy) The dividing line between the cold and mild very difficult to pinpoint. Monday – Tuesday The dividing line between the cold and mild very difficult to pinpoint. For Monday, remaining very cold in the North and East. 850Hpa temps -9c to -13c (SE Germany, Austria, E Italy), FL 0m to 400m.
A bit milder further west, 850Hpa temps -2c to -7c (FL 200m-500m most of Switzerland  up to 1000m far SW Switzerland  into parts of the French Alps.    For Tuesday a bit milder generally from the west. however remaining very cold in the far North and East. 850Hpa temps -7c to -10c (E Austria, NE Italy), FL 0m to 400m.
A bit milder further west, 850Hpa temps +1c (far SW) to -4c W Austria (FL 800m-1000m generally and up to 1400-1600m far SW Switzerland  into parts of the French Alps.   Wednesday - Friday For Wednesday and Thursday Current suggestions are that the milder air to the west, now covering all but the far NE of Austria.
850Hpa temps +2c (SW) to -4 (NE) and -7c (Far NE) FL 800m (NE) [Sea level Far NE] and 1000m-1600m generally across the Alps.    For Friday, perhaps a little colder for central and Eastern areas from the east.
E Austria, 850HPa -5c to -8c FL 0m to 600m Elsewhere +2 c far SW to -2c, FL 800m (E) to 1600m Far SW Total Precipitation Less precipitation this week generally than recent weeks. However for this weekend there will be moderate snow at times for parts of Switzerland, and Austria (especially Western Austria), which could give a further sizeable top-up over the weekend. Into next week, generally drier but with fronts trying to advance from the west at times, brining some precipitation a times, with the snow level difficult to pinpoint. There may also be some snow at times from Austria which has not been highlighted on the models.  Summary Very cold to start, then trying to turn milder from the west, a nightmare to pinpoint, always looking colder in the east. However given the current conditions over the Alps and the lack of any really mild weather on the cards, skiing should remain very good generally for next week.

J10

J10

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 8 January 2016

Current Synoptics and Conditions There has been a change to the conditions over the alps over the past week or so, with colder and snowier conditions becoming more prevalent, more especially over higher slopes. There has been further snow this week, at times to lower levels. However as can be seen when looking at the synoptic chart, winds have returned to a South Westerly direction, so some of the snow has thawed at lower levels. There is also an avalanche at some slopes so be careful off piste. Synoptics Ongoing Weekend The South Westerly wind continues, with low pressure in charge, so this is likely to give some rain, heavy in places, with the snow restricted to higher slopes. Monday and Tuesday The wind direction changes to more of a Westerly then North Westerly flow, bringing in some colder air from the North west, together with Unsettled conditions remaining in charge, there is the risk of further heavy snowfalls, and to lower levels. End of Week There remains a lot of uncertainty as the weather at the end of the week, but looking on the cold side, with further snow at times, perhaps with the risk of much colder from the north edging in by Friday, but this i very uncertain. Alps Temperatures and Rainfall Weekend For Saturday, a fairly mild South Westerly flow across the Alps, mildest in the far SW, colder in the NE.
850Hpa temps generally +3c to +5c, FL 1800m to 2100m generally, however for the far NE closer to 500m with 850hpa values
Moderate precipitation initially for the west of the Alps, but spreading across the east later in the day, Snow levels (always approximate) initially 1800m, dropping to 1600m by evening, and closer to 1100m by midnight . For Sunday SW winds again, but starting to turn a little colder to the North west of the Alps.
850Hpa temps generally +3c to +5c, FL 1600m to 2000m generally.
Precipitation to start in Austria, but clearing early afternoon, however more precipitation edges in from the west becoming heavy over SW Germany and parts of Switzerland by evening. Snow levels generally 1200-1500m. Monday - Tuesday For Monday Low Pressure over the Alps, with conditions set to turning colder for the far NW, but briefly milder for times further South and East, with a mild sector, but much colder here by evening.
850Hpa temps  +1c to +3c, FL 1400m to 1600m for parts of France, NW Switzerland, SW Germany, far North of Austria.
850Hpa temps  +3c to +6c, FL 1800m to 2200m elsewhere for a time, but much colder by evening with FL similar to NW areas. Heavy precipitation to start in the west, this becoming more widespread as the day progresses across much of the Alps, drier into the evening further west, but continuing over Austria into the early hours. Snow level 1400m in the NW to start, 2000m ahead of the rain band, however dropping steadily from the NW to reach 1200m by evening and 1000m by midnight. With the chance of 20cm of snow generally, and 50cm in some spots to the west, perhaps more in places. For Tuesday, cooler generally with West to North West winds 
850Hpa temps  -2c to 0c, FL 1100m to 1300m for parts of France, Switzerland, SW Germany
850Hpa temps  0c to +2c, FL 1300m to 1600m for SE Germany, Italy and Austria. Any overnight sleet/snow clearing Austria during the morning, before more precipitation is set to edge in from the west, however this time this is set to be focussed on France, Switzerland and Southern Germany during the day, before extending across into Western Austria by evening. FL lower then Monday, 1000m daytime, dropping back to 400m-600m by evening. Further heavy snow totals are possible with 50cm locally, but less widespread than on Monday. Wednesday - Friday There is a large deal of inter run variation at the moment, comparing the charts below with their 00Hz run (GFS) variation) and the picture looks much different. However my best guesstimate at the moment is for 850Hpa temps to be below zero, and FL in the range 1000m to 1500m across the Alps. perhaps always that little bit colder further north. For Friday there is the risk of turning much colder with sub -5c 850hpa air edging in from the north, and FL maybe as low as 500m, but a lot can change between now and then. In terms of precipitation for these days, the current theme is for precipitation for the north of the Alps Wednesday, to about 1000m, more general precipitation Thursday spreading again from the west, but with potentially high freezing level, but turning much colder Friday, with widespread light to moderate snow. Total Rainfall A lot of precipitation is possible across the Alps, the big question this week is the Freezing Level. With over 1m of snow possible if this came off. Summary A cool week to come for the Alps, very unsettled with the potential for some large snowfalls, there is the chance of over 1m falling in some higher resorts, say above 1800-2000m. The further sown the mountain, the higher the risk that there will be rain instead of snow, at 1500m, it should be mostly snow after this weekend, so possibly 50cm at 1500m.  Below 1000m there are risk that there may be more rain than snow, so conditions very uncertain.

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Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 1 January 2016

Current Synoptics and Conditions Firstly a comparison of where we are now, compared to what was suggested in previous blogs. The synoptic pattern is generally very similar to what was suggested on Tuesday, however more of the Alps has a feed from the SW as opposed to the South East. There has been a snow topup in parts of the Western Alps, but not to the extent forecast on Tuesday. Synoptics Ongoing A bit of a change in the weather pattern in the upcoming week. Initially continuing dry and settled with a Tropical Maritime airmass. However gradually over the weekend, the airmass changes to more of a Returning Polar Maritime airmass, bringing cooler and rather unsettled conditions. This combination of colder and unsettled weather does considerably increase the chance of some much needed snow over the Alps. However winds will still be from the South West, so some lower resorts will see rain as opposed to snow, detail on this will always be tricky to nail. Weekend Monday - Wednesday By now the cooler unsettled conditions are in place, so possibly a snowy period of weather, more especially for the higher slopes (as ever). Thursday and Friday The general pattern is still the same, but perhaps a little bit milder, and some uncertainty this far out. Alps Temperatures and Rainfall Weekend For Saturday a split in the weather, for most of the Alps, W to SW winds, 850Hpa temps +2c to +5c, FL 1200m to 1500m generally, however for the S Germany, NE Switzerland and NW Austria border area 2100m
However much colder in Eastern Austria with S to SE winds -7c (SE) to +0c (Central Austria), FL 0m (NE Austria) to 600m (Central Austria) For Sunday SW winds again for France, Switzerland and western parts of both Germany and Italy. 850Hpa temps -3c (N and E) to +2c (South West) , FL 1200m to 1600m generally
While SE winds for Austria and Eastern parts of both Germany and Italy 850Hpa temps -9c (N and E) to +3c (South West) , FL Sea level over much of Eastern Austria to 1600m further west. Heavy precipitation for France and Western Switzerland to start the day, this push east during the afternoon and evening to cover Switzerland fringing other areas later, this continuing to edge east into Austria for Sunday but decaying as it does so. Snow levels 1800m approx to start, steadily dropping down to 1000m during the afternoon and evening, staying around 1000m on Sunday. Monday - Wednesday For Monday again a split in the weather, for most of the Alps, W to SW winds, 850Hpa temps +0c to +3c, FL 1200m to 1500m generally
However remaining much colder in the far East of Austria with S to SE winds -5c (NE) to -1c (Central Austria), FL 0m (NE Austria) to 900m (Central Austria) to 1500m (Western Austria) A similar pattern on Tuesday, but slightly milder for Eastern Austria. For Wednesday the west to south west flow is set to becoming established across the Alps with 850Hpa temps -1c to +1c, FL 1000m to 1400m generally In terms of precipitation, another front pushing in for early Monday, giving heavy precipitation for Western areas, moving east slowly through the day to effect Austria later, the heaviest of the precipitation always
for western areas, with snow generally above 1300m, but at lower levels to around 1000m at times. Thursday and Friday Towards the end of the week, the Alps looks like being on the edge of the cold/mild divide, so apart from it perhaps turning milder at least some of the time, with 850HPa temps well above zero, very difficult to give much detail at this stage. At this stage further areas of precipitation seems likely, again the heaviest most likely to be over western parts of the Alps, perhaps not making it to Austria. the Snow level is a bit more difficult to pinpoint, but Mostly snow above 1800m, and to much lower levels at times. Precipitation This shows that there is a risk of 100mm of rain equivalent over France and W Switzerland, 50-100mm for E Switzerland, 25-50mm for W Austria, and 5-25mm for E Austria. If this was all snow this would give, up to 1m of snow over France and W Switzerland, 50cm-1m for E Switzerland, 25-50cm for W Austria, and 5-25cm for E Austria. However these often tend to overstate precipitation amounts. Summary So in summary a change to the weather pattern for the Alps, heavy snowfalls are expected for higher parts of the Alps say over 1800m, moderate snowfalls are expected above around 1500m while areas above 1200m are more likely to see a mix of rain, sleet and snow. Western areas are likely to see the heaviest precipitation, but conversely drier further east, but any precipitation is likely to fall as snow to lower levels to that further west.  

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Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 29 December

Current Synoptics and Conditions Very much a case of deja vu for much of the Alps, mild and settled with SW winds.  However high pressure over Eastern Europe is feeding in very cold air for the far east of Austria. Ongoing Synoptics At the time of the last blog, I was discussing whether the colder weather forecast for Scandinavia would edge South Eastwards towards the Alps. It now looks like this will largely miss the Alps, with the coldest air only impacting the far east of Austria. Further west though it will turn colder with 850Hpa temps falling below zero, and some fronts are set to being a little snow to reasonable levels. Alps Temperatures and Rainfall Wednesday-  Largely dry across the Alps once again.
For France, Switzerland For the western half of  Austria,  mild with west to South west winds. 850Hpa temps +2c  to +5c, FL 2100m to 2700m
Much Colder in E Austria with SE winds. 850Hpa temps -7c (SE) to +0c (Central Austria), FL 200m (SE Austria) to 900m (Central Austria) Thursday - SE winds for more of the Alps, but the coldest air always for the SE, but turning less mild generally. 
For France, Switzerland For the western half of  Austria. 850Hpa temps +2c  to +4c, FL 1800m to 2200m Precipitation edging in slowly from the NW, this effecting the far NW for the afternoon and more generally across France and Switzerland by late evening. Snow levels dropping from 1800m down to 1200-1400m later in the day. Perhaps up to 20cm of snow in places.
Much Colder in E Austria with SE winds. 850Hpa temps -7c (SE) to +1c (Central Austria), FL 0m (E Austria) to 800m (Central Austria) Friday - Winds E to SE generally across the Alps, but the coldest air always for the SE, but continuing to turn a little colder turning generally.  The overnight precipitation continuing to edge east across the Alps, tuning much drier for France and Switzerland, with the heaviest precipitation for Austria during the late morning and afternoon tuning drier into the evening. Snow levels dropping from 1200m down to 600-800m later in the day and to sea level in the far East. Perhaps up to 10-15cm of snow in places. 850Hpa temps generally -2c to -5c, always colder to the east but perhaps +3c in far SW. FL at sea level far east of Austria 1200m-1500m generally elsewhere, but 1800m far SW. Precipitation These charts show the precipitation moving wet to east, starting midnight into Thursday and lasting until Friday evening. Summary Turning a little colder with some fresh snow across the Alps, perhaps with up to 20cm in places, not enough to transform conditions, but it should help. Also with colder conditions, it should make snow making equipment more effective. Outlook Staying a bit colder into the weekend, with 850Hpa temps below zero, however perhaps turning much colder from the East. Detail is uncertain, but further precipitation is possible over the weekend into next week.

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Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 24 December

Current Synoptics and Conditions The current pattern over the Alps has seen some very mild and largely settled weather. Very good for getting out and about, but not any good at all for "natural" snow conditions. However, with clear conditions, even under this mild airmass, temperatures drop sharply overnight, meaning that snow cannons can be used. As a result, on piste conditions are reasonable, but off-piste remains very poor for the time of year. Looking at the pattern for today, compared to what was forecast last week, these are very similar, the only difference is that the pattern is slightly further east, but not by enough to change the Alps weather. Ongoing Synoptics Initially the theme seems very similar with High pressure over Mainland Europe with winds continuing to be from the South West and bringing in a very mild Tropical Maritime air mass. However there are changes much colder air from the Arctic is set to sweep into Scandinavia from Saturday (26th). Into the start of next week, High Pressure then builds over Northern Europe, with NE winds set to flood this colder air towards the Alps. However there are still model variations, some have the colder air remaining further east, and others have 850Hpa temps of below -10c by Next Thursday. Alps Temperatures and Rainfall Friday - Christmas Day - Mild, dry with lots of sunshine with SW winds, 850Hpa temps +3c (NE) to +8c (SW), FL 2300m (NE) to 2900m (SW)
Saturday - Mild, dry with lots of sunshine with SW winds, 850Hpa temps +3c (NE) to +10c (SW), FL 2400m (NE) to 3400m (SW) Sunday - Mild, dry with lots of sunshine with SW winds, 850Hpa temps +7c (NE) to +10c (SW), FL 2800m  to 3100m (Generally)
Monday - Mild, dry with lots of sunshine with SW winds, 850Hpa temps +6c (NE) to +9c (SW), FL 2800m  to 3100m (Generally) Up until this point, a fairly straightforward forecast, with very high levels of certainty - thereafter things get a bit more uncertain. Tuesday -  For the western half of the Alps. mild with west to South west winds, Frontal precipitation is set to move east for the far west of the Alps, the Snow Level around 1800m by day, dropping back to around 1200m in  the evening. Perhaps much colder further east with northerly winds.
850Hpa temps -3c (SE) to +5c (N), FL 900m (SE Austria) to 2400m (NW) Wednesday and Thursday - A very large amount of uncertainty - However current models, are suggesting that 850HPa temps could go down to -15c in E Austria, with a FL at sea level, staying a bit milder in parts of the SW , with 850Hpa of up to +3c and FL of 1800m. Outlook - There are big doubts as to what will happen for the later part of next week, however this is the first time in a while, that there have been some decent prospects for improving conditions,  the next update will be early next week, and by then hopefully we will have a better idea as to whether these colder synoptics were a blip or a trend. Hints as well of some snow later next week.  

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Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 18 December

Current Synoptics and Alps Weather Summary The mild weather continues to effect the Alps with conditions and temperatures better reflecting early Spring than Early Winter. The use of snow cannons has meant that many piste runs are open, especially at higher levels, however a quick glance at webcams will show that off piste conditions are a different story, either closed or showing pastures of green. Comparing the forecast for last week to today's synoptics. While the pattern for the Alps is largely the same, mild and largely with SW winds, the upstream pattern is a little different with the flattening of the jet not really happening, with the SW flow largely continuing. This Weeks Synoptics For the next week the weather pattern looks largely similar, the wind direction tend to fluctuate from SSW winds to SW but always very mild and largely settled. Towards next weekend, perhaps signs of the High pressure over Europe briefly edging eastwards, perhaps allowing more in the way of frontal system to edge in from the west, but this is still a long way off. Alps Temperatures and Rainfall This week I have changed this to include 850Hpa Temps and Freezing Levels. The basic precipitation pattern is that it remains largely dry throughout. Saturday - A South westerly flow and Very mild in the west, 850Hpa temps of 10c (FL 3200m), cooler for the time in the NE 850Hpa temps of 3c (FL 2400m) Sunday - A South westerly flow and Very mild across the whole Alps, FL levels 3000-3300m, 850HPa up to +11c in Southern Germany, closer to +4c in SE Switzerland and SW Austria. Monday - The winds veering westerly over the Alps, so a little less mild, 850HPa temps +4c to +7c, and FL 2400m-2700m, cooler in the North, warmer in the south. Tuesday - The winds reverting back to South Westerly and turning very mild, 850HPa temps +5c to +9c, and FL 3000m (Eastern Austria) to 3600m (Western Alps). Wednesday - The winds remaining South Westerly with the mildest of the weather moving away to the East, 850HPa temps +7c to +9c, and FL 2900m (Western Alps) to 3600m (Eastern Austria). Thursday - The winds remaining South Westerly, 850HPa temps +4c to +7c, and FL 2500m to 2700m. Friday - The winds remaining South Westerly, but originating from the South East for the SE Alps. 850 HPa Temps 2c over Northern Italy (FL 2300m), up to +9c for Southern Germany, (FL 3000m) Below are the precipitation charts for Thursday and Friday, the Thursday shows the heaviest precipitation for the Alps for the week, and it is still mostly dry. While the Friday charts shows that a dry Christmas Day is likely favoured. The total precipitation charts also indicate a dry week for the Alps. Summary A dry and very mild week in the Alps with very little snowfall expected, there is more of a chance of some snowfall for the post Christmas weekend, but the week after, still looking on the mild and mostly dry side.  

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Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 11 December

Current Synoptics and Alps Weather Summary Last week was a largely mild one across the Alps with mild South South westerly winds within a tropical Maritime air mass If we look at today's chart (left) and compare to the forecast charts from the last blog (right) we can see the general weather pattern is very similar, however the low pressure  is slightly further to the west, however the High pressure is very much still dominant over mainland Europe, and if anything stronger than previously forecasted.   Upcoming Synoptics It is very much a case of deja vu for the Alps synoptics this coming week. Winds generally come from the West to South West. Which means it largely remaining on the mild side. There is a time around the middle of the week, though that there is a chance of some colder weather snipping for far East of Austria. Freezing Level and Precipitation Saturday - Mild and dry for SW Alps with Freezing Level (FL) at 3000m, cooler as you move further North and East, with the chance of moderate precipitation for a few hours over NE Austria, snow above around 1400m. Sunday - A mostly dry day, perhaps a little evening precipitation for the far NE of Austria with the FL across the Alps in a narrow range between 2000m to 2400m. Monday - Another mostly dry day, with the milder air being mixed out, with FL slightly lower at around 1800m-2200m. Tuesday - Dry over Southern parts of the Alps, with some precipitation moving East over southern Germany into Austria later in the day. Milder in the west FL at 2200m , closer to 1800m over Eastern Austria.   Wednesday -There will be spells of precipitation for much of the North and west of the Alps overnight and for the morning, this becoming confined to Southern Germany and Switzerland and the far west of Austria by
afternoon and heavy and prolonged in places. this spreading east during the evening, to reach Western Austria by midnight. Heavy snowfall perhaps 20cm possible above around 2000m. Milder in the west FL at 2600m, Switzerland 2200-2600m, Western Austria 1800m-2200m, as low as 1400m far Eastern Austria.   Thursday - Overnight precipitation is expected to continue over Western Austria until morning, before moving to central Austria for the afternoon, and Eastern Austria by evening Heavy snowfall perhaps 20cm possible above around 2000m, the heaviest snowfall at the moment likely for Western Austria. Milder in the west FL at 3000m, Switzerland 2200-3000m, Western Austria 2100m-2400m, as low as 1200m in extreme NE corner of Austria. Friday - A mostly dry day, milder generally across the Alps with the FL across the Alps in a narrow range between 2000m to 2400m. Overall Precipitation Mostly Dry for Southern Europe, perhaps up to 50mm of precipitation for Eastern Switzerland, Western Austria and Central Southern Germany with large snowfalls for the higher slopes. Summary and Further Outlook Mostly mild and dry this week, however a chance of moderate snowfall for the higher resorts in the Central alps around midweek. Looking further ahead into the 7-14 day range, initial indications are staying Generally mild however a chance of some northerly incursions before Christmas.

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