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My January and February forecast

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Barry's December Forecast

[size=6]Barry's December Forecast[/size]

As I am bored, I thought for a bit of fun I would make a December forecast - not to be taken seriously! although I'll try and make it as accurate as possible!
Having read through some of the posts from the experts over on the stratosphere thread, I believe the Polar Vortex will continue to be attacked throughout December, and although this doesn't necessarily mean cold for the UK, I think we will get a bit of luck and it will effect the conditions positively - if your after cold for the UK. I don't see a repeat of December 2010 - far from it. But I do believe December will be a below average month for the UK.


[size=5]December:[/size]

In the first week of December, I can see signs starting to show in the operational models of our first proper cold period. During the end of November, most of the Polar Vortex will have moved east over to Siberia. I think the Sceuro block we currently have, will transfer more to a Scandinavian block in the first week of December. The block will begin to get more robust and the Atlantic will start to lose the battle against the block and will be repelled back. Winds will veer from the South-East to begin with, this will be a fairly cold flow as the continent has started to cool from the end of November onwards. Temperatures will begin to creep below the average, for the south of the UK temperatures will range from 6-7C, and for the North of the UK temperatures will range from 3-5C. Precipitation over the south will be as rain, in the North with altitude the rain will gradually turn to snow. Snow in the North at low levels will be mostly of rain, although I wouldn't discount snow getting to lower levels at times, but it will be a brief affair.

Into the second week of December, winds will veer from a more Easterly direction, and as a result temperatures will fall. Temperatures will range from 4-6C in the south of the UK, In the North temperatures will range from 2-4C. The snow/rain line will get down to a lower altitude, snow will probably fall above 200/300m, but below that and especially at sea level precipitation will continue to fall as rain for both the south and North of the UK. The NE of Scotland may be the the only exception to this. Temperatures will fall widely below freezing under clear skies, and hard ground frosts will be a common feature.

Week 3-4 will follow later...

:)

Barry95

Barry95

 

New - February Forecast

[u][b]Barry's February Forecast[/b][/u]

The first week of February will have temperatures near or slightly above average, in a W or SW wind. Precipitation will be above average in the North of the UK and around average in the South. It will be mostly cloudy, with strong winds at times, making it feel rather cool.

Into the 2nd week of February, temperatures will be below average in a N or NW wind. Precipitation will be below average in the North and around average in the south. Wintery showers could fall almost anywhere in the North. Away from the North any precipitation will almost all fall as rain. It will be mostly sunny, which will cause temperatures to stay widely below freezing at night, with frost a regular occurrence.

Into the 3rd week of February, confidence is lower, but temperatures will most likely stay below average in a N or NE wind. Precipitation will be below normal in the North and South. There will be Wintery showers almost anywhere in the North, although more frequent in the East. Wintery showers will also fall in the SE and occasionally in Southern Central areas. Precipitation in the SW will almost all fall as rain, apart from over higher ground. It will be mostly sunny, which will cause temperatures to stay widely below freezing at night, with severe frosts likely.

Into the Last week of February, confidence is low, but temperatures will most likely be around average or slightly above in a W or SW wind. Precipitation will be above average in the South and around average in the North. Most precipitation will fall as rain apart from over higher ground in NE Scotland.

Barry95

Barry95

 

January and February 2013 Forecast

[b]Barry's January & February Forecast[/b]

A similar theme of Atlantic dominated weather will continue into January, temperatures in the south will be between 8-11C, while in the north temperatures will be between 6-9C. Rainfall will widely be above average, causing more flooding in places, especially in the south west.

Into the middle of January, temperatures will be slightly below average as air comes from a more Northerly direction, in the south temperatures will range from 5-7C and 2-5C in the north. Rainfall will be around average if not below. There will be hill snow in the North, mostly rain at low levels in the North, but occasional wintery showers will fall, especially to the North-East of the UK.

As we approach the last week of January, temperatures will be well below average as the wind comes from a more North-Easterly direction. In the south, temperatures will range from 1-3C and 0-2C in the North. Rainfall will be below average during this period. Wintery showers and some snow will fall in the south, especially in the East. Some sleet but mainly snow will fall in the North, especially to higher ground and to the East. Western parts of the country will still see some rain but mainly wintery showers, a few cm's of snow will fall here though.

As we approach the 1st week of February, a similar theme will continue, temperatures in the south will range from 1-2C and struggle to get above freezing in the North. Rainfall will continue to be below average. Sleet/Snow will continue in the south, mainly snow in the North for most parts even down to lower levels, western coasts may be the exception getting rain/sleet.

As we approach the 2nd week of February, temperatures will recover to around average in the south, while still being slightly below in the North. Rainfall will also return to more normal levels. Snow will be restricted to NE Scotland and higher ground in the North.

From mid February onwards confidence is low, but temperatures will probably be slightly above average, as Atlantic dominated weather returns. Temperatures in the south will be around 9-11C and 7-10C in the North. Rainfall will be around average or slightly above.

[b]In conclusion, a cold spell during the last week of January and 1st week of February will bring snow to most of the UK, heaviest in Eastern parts of the country. During the 2nd week of February the snow will thaw and temperatures will recover to average/above for the rest of Winter.[/b]

Barry95

Barry95

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