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About this blog

Im by no way an expert, although seem to be learning quite well. Thought it would be fun to attempt some longer range forecasting

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January forecast

[b]January forecast[/b] [b]Previous update[/b] [color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]I expect the continuation of unsettled conditions, with on average temperatures remaining close to the norm. Given the expected continuation of a –NAO, and –AO I would not bet against colder interludes, in the form of brief northerlys, as we progress through the xmas period (something which has shown around xmas day on the latest model runs). I do not see great support for something prolonged

Mark Bayley

Mark Bayley

 

December outlook update

[b]Initial forecast[/b] Overall im finding it rather difficult to produce a forecast, but then isn’t it always! What’s apparent is the PV shall remain disrupted and disorganised as we progress through December. I am generally supportive of height rises to the NE given the latest runs, although feel that these will transfer nearer Greenland as we progress through the month when we see further wave breaking disrupting the vortex and leading to more movement of the PV segments. This would als

Mark Bayley

Mark Bayley

 

December outlook

[b]December outlook [/b] The following forecast is based on the latest stratospheric output, MJO, CFS, AO and NAO ensembles means, as well as 500hpa and 850hpa means. [b]Stratospheric outlook[/b] Stratospheric temperatures at both the 10hpa and 30hpa level are set to increase, as shown on the following diagrams. This should strain the vortex and encourage blocking. [attachment=146385:ECM current temp. conditions.gif][attachment=146388:ECM T240 temp. conditions.gif] The GFS also indicate

Mark Bayley

Mark Bayley

 

Rest of November and into December

[b]Note: Next update either on Thursday or Sunday/Monday. All images below will/have change/d as they have only been hyper-linked, will attach them on the next update [/b] Thought it would be fun to have a go at a little longer range forecasting. I am by no means expert, however have learnt bits and bobs over last few years of my net-weather membership! I shall be basing my thoughts on the stratospheric output, MJO forecasts, long range ensemble forecasts and CFS weekly charts. Instead of wr

Mark Bayley

Mark Bayley

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