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By Robbie Garrett

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Summer 2012 - Long Range Forecast V2.0 August 2012

After a pretty successful July 2012 forecast.[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] [/font][/color][url="http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/316/entry-4429-summer-2012-long-range-forecast-v20-july-2012/"]forum.netweather.tv/blog/316/entry-4429-summer-2012-long-range-forecast-v20-july-2012/[/url]

[b]Here is August 2012.[/b]

[b]August 2012 [/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]- [/font][/color][color=#FF0000][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][b]Version 2.0[/b][/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]August is a tough month tough month to call, we have just gone through a fairly settled period down south, with very wet/damp weather in the northern half of the UK. Partly because the NAO has gone to a more neutral phase and the jetstream has headed NORTH.[/font][/color]


[img]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.fcst.gif[/img]




The NAO is increasingly looking likely to head into the same vain and territory as July 2012, the same could then be said about the weather for the last few months. However August may be slightly different.

[b]WEEK 1 - [/b]

It's looking higly likely that the first week of August 2012 will be a fairly wet and miserable one. Parts of the UK may see some exceptional rainfall. Minimum temperature across the UK 10-16*C with maxes anywhere between 16-22*C. Overall, temperatures will be below normal, with rainfall likely to be above average. Plenty of showers, perhaps thundery at times if the NAO heads into a more neutral state rather than a negative phase. Definately a lot cooler than recently.

[b]WEEK 2 -[/b]

With a fairly good chance in the second week of August the south receiving less rainfall and temperatures perhaps returning to near normal. There is the possibility of some longer-lasting dry spells across southern parts of the UK, with those further north receiving more rainfall.


[b]WEEK 3/WEEK 4 -[/b]

The south and east is perhaps most likely to see the best of any dry, bright, and at times warm weather. Some rain is likely in places, which may be heavy at times. A lengthy spell of hot weather for the UK is unlikely but this is where and when the forecast starts to meet a point of where if there is a pattern change, this is likely when it will occur.

With the NAO forecast for negative then back to a more neutral state as we head further into August, one can only say that the forecast depends deeply on the NAO and the combination and action of the Jetstream at this point.


[color=#ff0000]So expect an update further into August regarding the second half.[/color]



[b]Summary [/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]- [/font][/color][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][color=#ff0000][i]With the NAO state forecast to head into a more negative state, again going neutral - August will be a pretty tough month to forecast. Indications are that there may be a settled period, but not until after another unsettled spell. Enjoy!![/i][/color][/font]






[quote][b]AUGUST - [/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Version 1.1[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]August is a very long way away, but it looks like temperatures will be below average, as high pressure stays firm across Greenland prompting very unsettled conditions across the UK. There is obviously considerable uncertainty in this part of the long-range forecast due to the forseeable fact that the NAO state is very very hard to judge at this time.[/font][/color]

[b]Summary [/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]- [/font][/color][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][color=#FF0000][i]This could have been a month to watch a few weeks back, but the NAO state is causing some headaches for the models as they chop and change. [/i][/color][/font][/color][/quote]

Robbie Garrett

Robbie Garrett

 

Summer 2012 - Long Range Forecast V2.0 July 2012

[b]JULY 2012 [/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]- [/font][/color][color=#ff0000][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][b]Version 2.0[/b][/font][/color]

For the first week of July or so, low pressure looks set to continue across the UK. However as we enter the second wave of July, the NAO looks increasingly likely to go from a negative state to a more neutral state.


[url="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif"]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif[/url]

However not after a slight game of cat and mouse as it again heads into record negative territory. This could quickly be replaced by more wet weather, however it of course depends on the way NAO circulation is heading. But from a viewpoint it does look likely that any settled weather would be shortlived as we again head into Negative NAO.

The first half of July will likely see something more changeable with more rain than shine, however temperature will likely be close to the seasonal average, maybe a little below at times.

It might be a beat of a repeat as we head into the Olympics, with the Azores re-ridging across the UK but quickly displaced back to where she came. Unfortunately it seems that is the case, however a north-south split may develop with the most warmer/settled conditions promoting some rather warm conditions as we head into August.



It does look likely that we may get more settled weather towards end of July, however I also said this for June and the NAO state didn't provide, what we was looking for. However good chance of some Thundery weather.

[quote][b]JUNE 2012 [/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]- [/font][/color][color=#ff0000][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Version 1.1[/font][/color][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] - [i]Part (3)[/i] [/font][/color][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]There been some uncertainty in this region for the long range models recently, with high pressure a possibility over Greenland, but there looks to be a fairly good chance of some sort of warmer weather, possibly a plume and this is likely to be Thundery in Nature towards the end of June, as high pressure builds over Europe. However becoming more settled in the last few days of June.[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]As with most settled periods, the Atlantic is likely to break down any settled weather as we head into July.[/font][/color][/quote]

Let's wait and see, I might update this week 2 regarding the end of July.

[color=#ff0000][August 2012 might be the best of the Summer weather?? Expect an update to this nearer to mid July.][/color]



[s][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]There is some suggestion that as we enter July, the NAO state begins to go back to a more negative state, prompting Northern Blocking to rebuild rather quickly over Greenland. However there is some considerable uncertainty, as if the NAO state remains more neutral the high pressure that could build over the UK is likely to remain a feature for a fairly settled July this had been shown for the last 2 months as a forecast for July, but July is now looking a fairly unsettled Month, but questions can be raised as to how, when why the Greenland block may re-appear prompting unsettled weather to predominately cross the UK.[/font][/color]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Another alternative is another Spanish Plume mid month which will be quickly broke down by the Atlantic as the NAO again head to negative, this could be seen as a repaint of June.[/font][/color][/s]



[b]Summary [/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]- [/font][/color][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][color=#FF0000][i]A tough month to forecast, depending on the state of the NAO as we head towards MID June/Late June and into early days of July it's too tough to call as it can go either way. [/i][/color][/font][/color]

Robbie Garrett

Robbie Garrett

 

Summer 2012 - Long Range Forecast V1.1

VERSION 1.1 (Updated from Aprils version)

[b]Summer 2012 -[/b]

[b]JUNE 2012 [/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]- Version 1.1[/font][/color]
The first week of June 2012, is looking fairly unsettled but that should be expected with the settled period we have just had, as with any Summery weather. The further south you are is likely to promote some wetter conditions, however there is some considerable uncertainty as to the exact specifics of this upcoming short lived unsettled spell, with the possibility some of the depressions could be thundery in nature, the other alternative is cooler, with temperatures suppressed by frontal weather coming in off the Atlantic.

The NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) Indicates a fairly unsettled picture for the UK for the early to mid part of June, with a blocking high pressure forming over Greenland, this looks set to continue till Mid June 2012, where the NAO goes back to a more neutral state promoting warmer weather and more settled weather across the UK for the 3rd and likely 4th week of June 2012.

There been some uncertainty in this region for the long range models recently, with high pressure a possibility over Greenland, but there looks to be a fairly good chance of some sort of warmer weather, possibly a plume and this is likely to be Thundery in Nature towards the end of June, as high pressure builds over Europe. However becoming more settled in the last few days of June.

As with most settled periods, the Atlantic is likely to break down any settled weather as we head into July.

[b]Summary [/b][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][color=#282828]- [/color][/font][color=#ff0000][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][b]Fairly unsettled start to June, but a fairly decent weeks worth of Spanish Plume weather as we head towards the final end of June. As we get to the last week high pressure is likely to build across the UK prompting more warm and settled conditions, expect this to quickly become unsettle as we head into the 2nd month of Meteorological Summer[/b][/font][/color][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][color=#282828]. [/color][/font]

[b]JULY 2012 [/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]- Version 1.1[/font][/color]

There is some suggestion that as we enter July, the NAO state begins to go back to a more negative state, prompting Northern Blocking to rebuild rather quickly over Greenland. However there is some considerable uncertainty, as if the NAO state remains more neutral the high pressure that could build over the UK is likely to remain a feature for a fairly settled July this had been shown for the last 2 months as a forecast for July, but July is now looking a fairly unsettled Month, but questions can be raised as to how, when why the Greenland block may re-appear prompting unsettled weather to predominately cross the UK.

Another alternative is another Spanish Plume mid month which will be quickly broke down by the Atlantic as the NAO again head to negative, this could be seen as a repaint of June.

[color=#ff0000][b][EXPECT AN UPDATE TO VERSION 2.0 as we head into the midst of June.][/b][/color]


[b]Summary [/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]- [/font][/color][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][color=#ff0000][i]A tough month to forecast, depending on the state of the NAO as we head towards MID June/Late June and into early days of July it's too tough to call as it can go either way. [/i][/color][/font]

[b]AUGUST - [/b]

[color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]August is a very long way away, but it looks like temperatures will be below average, as high pressure stays firm across Greenland prompting very unsettled conditions across the UK. There is obviously considerable uncertainty in this part of the long-range forecast due to the forseeable fact that the NAO state is very very hard to judge at this time.[/font][/color]

[b]Summary [/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]- [/font][/color][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][color=#ff0000][i]This could have been a month to watch a few weeks back, but the NAO state is causing some headaches for the models as they chop and change. [/i][/color][/font]

[color=#ff0000][b][EXPECT AN UPDATE TO VERSION 2.0 as we head into the midst of July.][/b][/color]

[b]Season Analysis.[/b]

[font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][color=#282828]Considerable uncertainty has been raised by the NAO state, and as such the only month easy to predict is June at this range. Which given the timeframe is creditable. [/color][/font]

Robbie Garrett

Robbie Garrett

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