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About this blog

Weather guide for the week ahead and a retrospective too. I enjoy comparing where I have lived of late (West Wales) with where I was born and bred (Midlands)

Entries in this blog

 

Weather guide Monday 26th January to Sunday 1st February 2015

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]

[b]Headline: Mostly dry and quite mild Monday/ Tuesday; cold and often windy with wintry showers and some longer spells of sleet or snow Wednesday onwards[/b]

[b]Last weeks highlights[/b]

Quite a cold week just gone, the coldest of what has been quite a mild Winter to date, however only a few areas saw much in the way of snow: hard frost across Wales last Sunday night lowest readings -7.6c Llanwnnen, -7.5c Sennybridge and -5.6c Trawsgoed followed by a lovely sunny Monday bar some wintry showers over Pembrokeshire ('Dangler'). The Midlands was colder on Monday night, many spots getting to -5c, including -5.2c at Coventry. Snow in places Tuesday into Wednesday. although WW missed this, even over the Midlands it was a fleeting affair, only the north of Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire seeing appreciable falls, the Peak District as so often getting locally deep accumulations of over 6 inches. A sharp frost Thursday night, especially parts of the Midlands, -6.8c Pershore and -6.1c Hereford. Friday did end up mild at above 9c over WW by evening. Overall it was a fairly dry week with precipitation amounts generally low (weekly totals under 10mm)).

[b]The week ahead[/b]

After the cold weather last week the start of this coming week is generally mild, and there will plenty of dry weather during Monday and Tuesday. Big changes from Wednesday however as we are plunged into a cold and quite windy NW flow bringing showers and some longer spells of wintry weather, most of us should have seen at least some snow come next weekend.

Sunday is a mostly cloudy and mild day, a few sunny intervals are possible, mainly Midlands. WW will be seeing a little rain or drizzle at times as the day progresses. Highs Sunday 9 to 11c, with a moderate SW breeze. Staying cloudy and mild tonight with a little light rain or drizzle at times, then with a band of more persistant and moderate rain affecting all parts later in the night. No lower than 7c excepting NW Wales where skies clear by dawn. Any rain clears the South Midlands by midday and with a ridge of high pressure over Ireland it should be a mostly dry afternoon with some sunshine. Sunny intervals from the off for most of WW, just the odd light shower possible here afternoon. Highs Monday 7 to 9c with a moderate to fresh NW breeze. Clear spells overnight leads to a fairly widespread but slight frost, minima between -1c and +2c inland.

The ridge is over sourthern Britain during Tuesday which is another largely dry day with sunny intervals and a brisk westerly breeze, highs 6 to 8c about average for the end of January. Probably clouding over during the afternoon for WW as fronts approach, these bringing a little rain or drizzle during the evening. Cloudy and mild for Tuesday night with rain at times, some heavy bursts for WW, and a strong SW to west wind. We will be in a warm sector on Tuesday night so one of those nights when it turns milder, temperatures up to around 10c after midnight. A pronounced cold front in total contrast swiftly moves through all parts during Wednesday morning with a band of heavy rain and gusty winds along it before it clears. Much colder air for Wednesday afternoon, sunny intervals and showers these turning increasingly wintry especially for high ground. Temperatures that were close to 10c at dawn Wednesday will be down to just 2 or 3c by mid afternoon! Feeling bitter in the fresh to strong WNW wind and by the end of the afternoon showers may well be falling as sleet or snow even to low levels. Remaining quite windy with wintry showers through Wednesday night too, most of the showers affecting WW, snow and hail featuring in these showers with a clap of thunder possible, and by morning there will be a covering of snow in places. In spite of the wind there will be a frost with temperatures down around -2c away from coasts.

By Thursday a large complex area of low pressure area has become situated between the UK and Scandinavia and controls our weather for the remainder of the week. Winds right through to the weekend predominantly coming from a cold NW to north direction and with the quite deep low so close by it will prove interesting weather too! A wintry mix of showers for Thursday then driven by a fresh west to NW wind, snow could fall in the showers virtually anywhere but more especially over hills, some heavy showers putting down a fresh covering - again this possible almost anywhere. Maxima of just 2 to 4c Thursday so a cold and wintry day! A longer spell of sleet or snow may move down from the NW later Thursday or during the night, and if so may give appreciable falls particularly to higher ground. A low may be centred over eastern England during Thursday night meaning lighter winds by this stage and so with clear intervals between the wintry showers a widespread frost will develop along with icy stretches, minima 0 to -3c.

A similarly cold and wintry picture seems likely for Friday too with low pressure just to our east and north, further showers or longer spells of sleet or snow, this settling particularly over high ground. Note: any snow accumulations to lower ground may well come and go as temperatures rise enough during day time to permit thawing, and in any case perhaps fewer showers getting across the Midlands with some places here having a mostly dry, bright day. Highs Friday between 2 and 5c with a cold NW wind. Next weekend and the cold and unsettled weather with showers and possibly a longer spell of wintry conditions looks like lasting. The details modelled vary obviously at this range ahead, but there is the risk of some more widespread snowfall at some stage next weekend as we remain locked into this cold pattern, no higher than 4 or 5c by day and there will be frosts by night. As with Friday WW most prone to wintry showers with the SE Midlands more sheltered and so may escape the worst.
[attachment=241293:PPVG89 Mo m dry bright breezy.png][attachment=241294:PPVJ89 dry TU clouds over WW pm.png][attachment=241295:ecmt850.072 rain wind Tu night.png][attachment=241296:PPVL89 marked CF am colder wintry showers pm WE.png][attachment=241297:ecmt850.096 windy wintry showers We night.png][attachment=241301:PPVO89 cold wintry showers poss longer spell TH.png][attachment=241307:viewimage wintry showers TH.png][attachment=241298:ecm500.120 cold wintry TH FR low UK.png][attachment=241299:ecmt850.168 cold further wintry showers WEND.png][attachment=241300:viewimage cold unsettled wintry weekend.png][attachment=241302:viewimage cold from later WE.png][attachment=241303:viewimage precip most days bar Tu.png][attachment=241304:viewimage unsettled wintry from mid week.png][attachment=241305:mgram_Birmingham.png]
[/font][/color]

TonyH

TonyH

 

Weather guide Monday 19th to Sunday 25th January 2015

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Mostly cold and frosty with a few wintry showers but often dry; more unsettled with snow risk Tuesday to Thursday[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b]

A mild start to last week - it reached 12c in places on Monday which was a wet day especially for West Wales (WW). It turned colder on Tuesday with some areas getting snow, parts of WW saw quite a bit, several inches on high ground, even Llanwnnen collected 3cm relatively low down by the Teifi valley. Further wintry showers into Tuesday evening and night with vivid lightning and thunder across Wales, large hail and a tornado affecting Haverfordwest! Quite strange to watch the lightning flashing away while stood on a snow covered lawn! Wednesday evening and night saw heavy rain and strong to gale force winds, about an inch of rain for much of Wales and the Cotswolds, and locally damaging winds, highest gusts 96mph Capel Curig, 83mph Aberdaron, 81mph Mumbles with 61mph here at Llanwnnen (site record SRB 2013) Parts of the Midlands relatively unscathed though getting little rain and shelter from the worst of the winds. The low did have a warm sector overnight Wednesday when temperatures widely 10 or 11c. Chilly then since Thursday with wintry showers and some further temporary slight snow coverings in places, particularly Friday night (1cm Llanwnnen) and including parts of the Cotswolds and South Midlands. A fresh 10cm lay over the Brecon Beacons on Saturday morning.

The first 17 days of January have been wet across Wales and much of the Midlands, but only a little above average for some parts of the Midlands, 125mm so far here at Llanwnnen, 41mm at Coventry, and 31mm Long Lawford thus far. It has been a mild month to date.

[b]The week ahead[/b]

Quite a cold week ahead, indeed it looks like being the coldest week since March 2013 such was the absence of cold throughout last Winter. Sunny intervals and a few wintry showers for the most part with plenty of dry, bright weather between, and frosty nights. However Tuesday and Wednesday sees an unsettled interlude, and given the chilly air there could be some sleet and snow about, although this perhaps not widespread at lower levels, for high ground (above say 250m) though the mid week period will be quite snowy with a good few inches settling up there.

A frosty, sunny Sunday morning for many, largely dry this aftenoon with further sunny spells and the odd wintry shower, especially for Pembrokeshire as a 'Dangler' shower line may set up. Rather cold highs between 4 and 6c with a moderate north breeze. Clear and calm tonight with a sharp frost and freezing fog in places, lows between -3 and -6c, milder for most coasts. A slight ridge over us for Monday so a dry cold day in store. Freezing fog patches may be slow to clear and where these linger temperatures struggling to reach 0c, but elsewhere sunny spells and chilly highs between 2 and 4c with little wind. Another frost sets in during Monday evening and a dry, frosty night for the Midlands down as low as -4c, but clouding over WW by around midnight.

Tricky predictions follow with fine and shifting margins dictating just where it will rain or snow: an occluded front edges east during Tuesday this bringing some rain, sleet and snow across Wales in the early hours, snow more likely inland and especially above 150m. This mix of precipitation moves onto the Midlands through Tuesday morning, again rain or sleet more likely at low levels with snow tending to be restricted to land above about 150m but this by no means certain, and it could turn out that even some low level places see snow falling at least for a time on Tuesday. Coastal areas of WW for sure will only be getting rain however. The wintry mix in any case clears WW afternoon with sunny intervals and the odd wintry shower following before dusk. Highs Tuesday between 2 and 5c with quite light winds. Some clearances during Tuesday evening with frost readily forming, however another wintry band of weather is set to move in from the WNW during the night. Slightly colder air digging in and so perhaps this band falling more generally as sleet or snow, with hills in particularly getting several cm coverings, but even some lower ground could have a covering come Wednesday morning.

A flabby low slowly sinks south over the UK during Wednesday and with the still rather cold airmass there could be some wintry surprises for some! Bands of wintry precipitation or wintry showers within the lows circulation, although equally there will be areas where it is largely dry. All we can say is that there is a risk of snow for some places once more, perhaps the NE Midlands most at risk? Other places will see only rain, sleet or hail (especially coasts) while others escape largely dry, but for some of us a snowfall will occur during Wednesday even giving some accumulation. For hills above about 250m it should be snow all the way so long as precipitation is falling that is, with a good few inches settling should this happen. Maxima Wednesday generally 2 to 4c, perhaps 6c for coastal SW Wales. Wintry showers and some longer spells of sleet or snow continue well into Wednesday night, with perhaps the Midlands seeing a spell of snow and a covering even to lower levels by Thursday morning, but anywhere really could wake to a covering of snow. Clear intervals too which will allow slight frosts to form and so there will be icy stretches to watch for even if no snow cover exists, lows down to -2c in places.

During Thursday the low sinks south into the Continent, a drier, brighter day expected with sunny intervals, but still some further wintry showers about and a cold NE breeze, highs just 2 to 4c. Any showers die out pm Thursday and it will be a frosty night, minima between -3 and -5c generally and even colder where there is snow cover, perhaps a -9c here and there. By the end of the week a degree of uncertainty as to whether the cold weather relinquishes or holds on over the weekend? On the whole a prediction of it staying on the cold side through most of the weekend would seem applicable. Plenty of dry weather for Friday and Saturday then but some further wintry outbreaks are possible in places too but these probably not widespread if at all. Some sunny spells and frosty nights. Sunday too could hold onto chilly and fairly dry weather..
[attachment=239881:PPVG89 dry frost poss ff MO cold.png][attachment=239882:ecmt850.048 cold frosty Mo.png][attachment=239883:PPVJ89 wintry mix r cold Tu.png][attachment=239885:ecmt850.072 unsettled TU WE wintry mix chiefly hill snow r cold.png][attachment=239886:ecmt850.096 cold wintry precip about WE.png][attachment=239893:PPVL89 wintry mix WE chiefly hill snow cold.png][attachment=239898:viewimage wintry bands about We cold.png][attachment=239890:ecmt850.144 disruption wintry chances later FR.png][attachment=239887:viewimage wintry mix disturbance r cold Sa.png][attachment=239892:ecmt850.168 frsoty R Su.png][attachment=239894:viewimage precip TU WE otherwise m dry.png][attachment=239895:viewimage r cold week.png][attachment=239896:viewimage unsettled mid week.png][attachment=239897:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]

TonyH

TonyH

 

Weather guide Monday 12th to Sunday 18th January 2015

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Unsettled and often rather cold: wintry showers and longer spells of rain and (chiefly) hill snow; damaging gales late Wednesday into[/b][b] Thursday[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b]

Fog persisted much of last Sunday over parts of the Midlands and by teatime Church Lawford had only managed 1.8c, in contrast Pembrokeshire was quite mild with Milford Haven at 9.2c maximum. After the quiet start plenty of mild, rather unsettled and windy weather in the past week. Orographic (hill forced rainfall) produced 66.6mm at Capel Curig on Wednesday although rainfall totals for the week away from Snowdonia were modest over West Wales and negligible across the Midlands. A very mild week overall with Friday was remarkably mild for January, highest reading being 16.1c at Pershore (some 9c above average) while most places reached above 13c. Long-standing records broken in places too, for example Coventry where the high of 14.5c on Friday pipped the 14.4c recorded in Janury 1944. Central Europe too experienced this remarkable Winter warmth, with 25c recorded in northern Italy and 22c in the Swiss Alps on Saturday! It was often windy from Thursday to Saturday but we were far enough south to escape the worst of the damaging winds experienced up north.

[b]The week ahead[/b]

A disturbed week to come as some deep lows cross the Atlantic bringing showers or longer spells of rain. Showers, wintry in nature at times too, as behind the frontal systems we will be in cold polar air-masses, and significant snowfall is likely over high ground above about 1000 feet, this perhaps coming down to lower ground too briefly from time to time especially later in the week, so a fair chance quite a few of us will have seen our first snow cover of Winter come next weekend albeit not sticking for long. Often windy this week, and there are strong indications of widespread damaging gales later Wednesday into Thursday.

Sunday afternoon is mostly dry, bright and breezy for the Midlands but is cloudier with some light showers for West Wales (WW) highs 7 to 9c, some places catching a passing shower, most likely Snowdonia. Wind picking up tonight as Atlantic fronts move in these bringing light rain to West Wales (WW) after midnight. A reasonably mild night but quite windy. Monday is then affected by a wriggling front across southern Britain which struggles to clear away SE. A mostly cloudy and windy day with rain at times, some heavy bursts, especially over South Wales and the South Midlands where the front slows down giving more prolonged rain afternoon into Monday evening. The rain should have cleared NW Wales and the NW Midlands by the end of the afternoon, with the winds easing too. Highs Monday a mild 9 to 11c. The rain eventually clears the South Midlands around midnight with some showers affecting WW by late night, and a local ground frost.

A showery westerly airstream for Tuesday, complications perhaps with a trough feature accentuating showers afternoon and this dragging in colder air which could turn the rain or showers wintry especially over high ground. Just the chance should the precipitation be heavy enough and winds light enough so that evaporative cooling takes place which would have the effect of bringing snow down to lower levels too during Tuesday afternoon, so one of those Winter days when a surprise snowfall cannot be ruled out for some areas, even giving a slight covering, but most likely this would be restricted to land above 200m. Maxima Tuesday 4 to 7c, but turning colder through the afternoon, and for the most part a rather windy day. A wintry mix of rain, sleet, hail and even snow showers keep going through the evening and night for WW but it becomes largely dry for the Midlands where there will be a widespread frost down to -2c in places, frost more patchy across WW but is likely inland where showers hold off.

Any remaining showers die out WW Wednesday morning, and for many it is a bright, dry and frosty start to the day with little sign of whats to come! The huge temperature contrast off the Eastern Seaboard of North America spawns a rapidly deepening low which is UK bound during Wednesday. This may be a very nasty low with the likely track taking it across Scotland during Wednesday night into Thursday. As the tightest isobars (pressure lines) and therefore strongest winds are nearly always found south of a low centre then England and Wales look like being pounded by gales, and potentially severe gales during Wednesday night, so for many areas damaging winds are likely between Wednesday evening and Thursday morning. Before that though most of Wednesday is dry bright and chilly, temperatures no higher than 4c away from WW coasts until evening, although set to rise further to 5 to 7c overnight. Winds though will strengthen through the afternoon as WW clouds over. Heavy rain and gale force winds then quickly move into WW early evening and onto the Midlands by midnight. The latest GFS model is showing a particularly nasty 950mbar low slowly crossing Northern Ireland Wednesday night with zones of severe gale force winds about its southern flanks. It could be that the gales ease later in the night only to pick up once more to severe gale during Thursday and worst affected would be Irish Sea coasts where gusts are likely to reach 80 to 90mph, even inland gusts would be over 60mph. At least the worst of the rain is gone by dawn Thursday!

Further showers or longer spells of rain during Thursday with hill snow, and winds could still be severe, although most models do indicate an easing of the gales during the day. A chilly day too Thursday, feeling cold given the windchill, highs 4 to 6c, but milder for Pembrokeshire at 8c. Winds may ease enough for a widespread frost on Thursday night. Friday and Saturday are controlled by low pressure to our north and NE so a rather cold NW flow to end the week bringing wintry showers. Maxima just 3 to 5c both of these days and so hill snow could well be building up above 1500 feet, even lower down some temporary accumulations of snow possible away from coasts, but a general kitchen sink mix of rain, sleet, hail, some snow and even a clap of thunder Friday and Saturday along with drier brighter intervals! Clear spells will permit widespread overnight frost and icy stretches as temperatures dip as low as -3c locally, more generally inland though -1c.

Next Sunday signs of a transient ridge giving a dry interlude ahead of wet and windy weather for Sunday night or Monday. This mix of weather looks like continuing through the rest of the month, although any prolonged cold snowy spell seems unlikely.[/font][/color]
[attachment=237810:PPVG89 windy rain times.png][attachment=237815:viewimage Mo lingering front rain.png][attachment=237811:PPVJ89 surprise snow chance feature TU.png][attachment=237812:ecmt850.072 wintry sh TU.png][attachment=237813:PPVL89 DL heavy rain gales later Wed.png][attachment=237814:ecmt850.096 gales heavy rain We night.png][attachment=237816:viewimage storm Th showery.png][attachment=237817:PPVO89 gales showery hill snow TH.png][attachment=237818:viewimage FR wintry showers r cold windy.png][attachment=237819:ecmt850.144 r cold wintry showers frosts FR SA.png][attachment=237820:ecmt850.168 wk R m dry Su.png][attachment=237821:viewimage chilly week mostly.png][attachment=237822:viewimage frequent rain spikes drying WEND.png][attachment=237823:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=237824:viewimage sub 980 TH R WEND.png]

TonyH

TonyH

 

Weather guide Monday 5th to Sunday 11th January 2015

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Changeable with rain and strong winds at times; variable but overall mild temperatures[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Cold and frosty the start of last week, some hard night frosts, lowest values Sunday night -8.4c Llanwnnen, Pembrey -6.7c, Pershore -6.3c, then Monday night Pershore -6.3c, Hereford and Shobdon -6.1c. Lovely sunny weather by day though which raised temperatures into the mild category as early as Tuesday across much of West Wales (WW) the highest readings being Milford Haven and Valley at 10.4c, in contrast and in spite of the sunshine parts of the Midlands only managed a chilly 4 or 5c. Another frost for the Midlands Tuesday night, but milder SW winds moved into WW and onto all parts in time for the New Year. A very mild New Year's Day highs over 11c everywhere, it was a wet and windy start to 2015 across WW with gales in exposed places, Capel Curig in Snowdonia received 63mm rain Thursday. Temperatures for the week peaked overnight Thursday, Hereford mildest at 14c, with many paces above 12c as a Tropical air mass swathed Wales and England! Contrasting temperatures then on Saturday as a low crossed the south, maxima of 12c over far SW Wales under the warm sector but just 5c or 6c across mid Wales and the Midlands. Cold last (Saturday) night -5c the lowest being in Shropshire, while the -3.8c at Coventry was the coldest night since Spring 2013 (see [url="http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/"]http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/[/url] ).[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]December 2014[/b] saw average or slightly above average temperatures with rainfall ranging from below average to just above average and it was a sunny Winter's month. Some rainfall totals:[/font][/color]


[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Llanwnnen 152.7mm = 106%
Trawsgoed c. 165mm = rather wet
Aberporth 82.0mm = rather dry
Milford Haven 66.8mm = dry
RAF Mona 96.2mm = average
Coventry, Bablake 59.6mm = average
Long Lawford 44mm = 84%
Church Lawford c. 48mm = rather dry
Little Rissington 46.4mm = rather dry
Pershore 41.2mm = rather dry
Hereford c. 27mm = dry[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]As for the year of [b]2014[/b] this has been a notably warm year - the warmest for Central England in the 350 year temperature series in fact! The only month that saw below average temperatures of course had to be August! Most areas had rather a wet year thanks to the exceptionally wet Winter 2013/14, some annual rainfall totals:[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Llanwnnen 1526.7mm (116%)[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Long Lawford 735.1mm (115%)[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Coventry, Bablake 847.5mm (122%)[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Few places below 1000 feet altitude had any lying snow last year while parts of the South Midlands did not see a single snowflake fall throughout 2014 - a truly snowless year![/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]The week ahead[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Another changeable week to come, the general theme that it is mostly dry to begin with but turning windy and at times wet from mid week, and for the most part it is a mild week within fluctuating temperatures. High pressure means Sunday is dry but quite cold, especially over the Midlands where it has been a foggy morning. A few sunny intervals Sunday afternoon but many areas remain cloudy or misty, highs between 4 and 6c generally but 8c possible over Pembrokeshire. Conversely should the fog stick parts of the Midlands no higher than 2c. Becoming frosty and in places foggy again this evening for the Midlands, for West Wales (WW) though it should stay frost and fog free, lowest readings just below zero Midlands and nearer 5c for WW coasts. Milder SW winds spread across after midnight and so the fog and frost is all gone by dawn and WW is mild with drizzle in places to greet Monday morning. Monday a largely cloudy milder day, a weak front gives occasional drizzle to WW but a mostly dry day for the Midlands. HIghs Monday 7c Midlands and 9 or 10c WW. A mild night follows further rain or drizzle on and off for WW but it remains mostly dry Midlands just the odd spit possible, no lower than 5c.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Tuesday sees a weakening cold front trundle east bringing patchy rain and drizzle across all parts, although parts of the Midlands again missing out. Once the front passes we should see brighter weather afternoon and mostly dry, highs 8 to 10c so quite a mild day again. A transient ridge permits clearing skies and frost during Tuesday evening and night, down to -2 or -3c in places, although the frost should have melted by dawn across WW. Changes again during Wednesday as a deep low in the vicinity of Iceland starts to control our weather. We enter an unsettled, often mild and rather disturbed spell seeing wet and windy weather at times this lasting through to the weekend. Cloud and strengthening SW winds then for WW Wednesday morning bringing rain by midday, while for the Midlands it is a dry chilly morning but clouds over. A windy afternoon with spells of rain eventually for all, this heavy at times WW, and it turns mild everywhere by evening. Highs during Wednesday evening 9 to 11c. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The cold front lingers with further rain well into Wednesday night but should be clearing through all parts by dawn Thursday, by which time it turns somewhat colder with some showers into WW. Thursday we may eke out a weak ridge and get a reasonably dry and bright day, bar a few rain and hail showers into WW that is. Highs cooler at 5 to 7c with a chilly moderate to fresh WNW breeze. Trouble could well be brewing though for Thursday night into Friday as a deep secondary low looks set to develop and pass north of Scotland. A spell of wet and windy weather then into Friday, gales in places along with locally heavy rain, but at least it should not last too long. Hopefully then things improve for at least a while during Friday with another drier brighter interlude. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Next weekend and the disturbed theme continues as another deep low passes north of Scotland on Saturday bringing more wet and windy weather and possibly gales, as well as a very mild sector of double figure surface air be it day or night. Later on Saturday into Sunday is a long way off in the world of weather models but it looks like we could have alternated into one of those colder bright spells, showers affecting WW in particular and with hill snow probable, and a brisk NW wind. Hints of something colder from the middle of January and although no 'Big Freeze' we could be seeing some wintry conditions at times as we progress through January (i.e. typical Winter weather!)[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=236482:PPVG89 mild MO dr WW.png][attachment=236483:PPVJ89 CF liottle rain TU.png][attachment=236484:ecmt850.048 weakening CF Tu little rain.png][attachment=236485:PPVK89 R frost Tu night.png][attachment=236486:PPVL89 DL Ice starts unsettled spell.png][attachment=236487:metslp.120 DL n of SCot turns wet windy Thu night.png][attachment=236488:viewimage VM windy some rain FR night.png][attachment=236489:ecmt850.144 v mild wet gales Sat.png][attachment=236490:viewimage r cold showery WEND.png][attachment=236491:up down temps.png][attachment=236492:viewimage increasingly unsettled week.png][attachment=236493:viewimage some rain times Mids.png][attachment=236494:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]

TonyH

TonyH

 

Weather guide Monday 29th December 2014 to Sunday 4th January 2015

[font=arial][size=3][b]Cold and dry with frost and local fog to mid week then milder and changeable with some rain[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Very mild with some rain and drizzle up to last Tuesday night, Snowdonia receiving several inches of rain over a couple of days, although only a little rain for most of the Midlands. 13 or 14c reached in places both Monday and Tuesday with nights staying in double figures too, notably mild for late December due to air of Tropical origin. A cold front brought cooler though not especially cold weather on Christmas Eve which lasted through to Boxing Day giving some slight frosts making it feel more Seasonal. Much of the north Midlands had a snowfall on Friday evening, worst over the Derbyshire peaks where up to one foot fell, for most though no more than a brief fall and temporary covering. In contrast at the same time a mild sector passed over SW Wales and the south Midlands during Friday evening, 11c reached across Pembrokeshire at the same time Derbyshire was very snowy! This weekend has been quite cold too with wintry showers for many areas and further night frost and ice. Temperatures Saturday night as low as -4c in places such as Llanwnnen.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3][b]The week ahead[/b][/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]This week will see plenty of dry and cold weather with frosty nights as an anticyclone crosses southern UK. More unsettled to end the week with some rain or showers at times but still quite a bit of dry weather. Sunday morning is frosty, with shade frost persisting for many all day, high pressure over Ireland feeding down rather cold northerly winds. Mostly sunny for Sunday highs 4 to 6c, below average. More of the same really through to New Years Eve with the anticyclone transferring SE across southern UK and into the Continent. A chilly but dry 3 or 4 days to come seeing out 2014, sharp frosts and foggy in places by night, but for many some sunshine by day. However some areas of fog will stick into afternoons some days locally, where this happens temperatures not getting above zero, generally though maxima in the 3 to 5c range, and milder along west Wales coasts. As mentioned, quite hard frosts to come until mid week, widely getting down between -2 and -4c, with lowest readings of -6 or -7c possibly for usual spots. [/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Changes underway as we go through New Years Eve as the high recedes into the Continent, and a SW flow becomes established across northern and western UK. For most though a similar picture of dry bright chilly weather after frost on Wednesday, fog persistent over parts of the Midlands. It should be dry in most places for the New Year festivities except perhaps for NW Wales where a little light rain or drizzle may arrive by midnight. Milder on Wednesday night across WW but another frost likely for the Midlands. Uncertainties on the extent and nature of the breakdown for later in the week, but it turns milder and more unsettled during New Years Day into Friday as SW winds sweep across all areas. Maxima by this stage between 8 and 11c, mildest out west, rain at times but still some dry conditions at times too. [/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Next weekend and the weather looks changeable, we may well see a temporary ridge at some stage giving a dry cold interlude, but on the whole rather unsettled with some further rain or showers about, these wintry especially over hills.[/size][/font]

TonyH

TonyH

 

Weather guide Monday 22nd to Sunday 28th December 2014

[size=4][color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Changeable with rain at times and localised flooding; fine Christmas Day; potentially stormy late Friday into Saturday[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Very mild indeed during the middle of last week, highest readings on Thursday Hereford at 15.3c, much of the Midlands above 13c. Exceptionally mild by night, many places stayed above 11c during Wednesday night with some spots still over 13c in the early hours of Friday - virtually as mild as it gets in December! As expected West Wales (WW) saw the worst of the rain last week, the mild, moist air having no problem precipitating out over the hills while in contrast much of the Midlands escaped mainly dry for most of Wednesday and Thursday. Unfortunately the Capel Curig rain gauge has been faulty but pretty sure over 100mm up there Tuesday to Friday, the Teifi was in spate Friday so quite likely the Cambrians received above 75mm, here at Llanwnnen next to the valley 37mm fell in this period. Not much in the way of frost last week with all the mild air over us.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]The week ahead[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Through to Tuesday night we are in a very mild moist WSW flow having travelled thousands of miles across the Atlantic. A mostly cloudy 3 days ahead then, very mild mostly being above 10c throughout, brisk SW or west winds and rain or drizzle at times, Snowdonia and perhaps some other hilly districts of WW likely to see a lot of rain in this period, over 100mm with flooding issues for Snowdonia. Some detail on this: Sunday afternoon cloudy, mild and breezy with occasional light rain or drizzle, probably very little for the Midlands though, highs between 10 and 12c. Temperatures hold above 9c during Sunday night, further light rain or drizzle at times, chiefly for WW, with a fresh to strong WSW wind. A similar day but windier Monday, largely cloudy and damp, only a little light rain or drizzle for the Midlands, a thoroughly damp, drizzly day for much of WW, and turning increasingly wet over NW Wales through the day. Very mild, maxima 11 to 13c. Some cloud breaks producing bright intervals across favoured sheltered parts of the Midlands may result in the odd 14c being achieved, this some 7c above the late December norm! Winds gusting to severe gale force (50mph) for exposed places during Monday.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Similarly damp and drizzly for Tuesday night, still windy and very mild no lower than 9c anywhere. Again Snowdonia could be receiving a lot of rain and flooding could well be an issue by this stage across NW Wales. More of the same Tuesday as well, perhaps largely dry for the Midlands, but damp and drizzly across WW again, and as we go through the day it turns more generally wet here with some heavier bursts of rain. Quite windy and perhaps a touch less mild highs between 9 and 11c. This more general rain front then heads SE crossing the Midlands on Tuesday night as WW eventually dries up, and another mild night. Rain should clear the Midlands first thing on Christmas Eve, with cooler air behind giving sunny intervals and just the odd shower. Temperatures on Wednesday afternoon between 6 and 8c but a cool WNW breeze. Clear spells overnight lead to a widespread ground frost, minima 1 to 3c, with a few spots attaining 0c, a mostly dry night too, just the odd shower for NW Wales and NW Midlands possible.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Christmas Day looks a pleasant one due a ridge of high pressure, a frosty start in places, and a largely dry, bright day with sunny spells just a gentle NW breeze. Just the odd shower affecting WW and Staffordshire into the afternoon with maxima close to the average at 6 to 8c. Clearing skies and light winds during the evening lead to another widespread ground frost and perhaps local air frost as temperatures dip close to freezing by midnight. Likely then that cloud and breeze increases after midnight across WW lifting temperatures with the frost gone by dawn here, but expect a frosty start to Boxing Day for the Midlands. High pressure gives way during Boxing Day permitting rain fronts from the west. A cloudy day with spells of rain for WW and clouding over during the morning for the Midlands too with occasional rain here throughout the afternoon and evening. Turning into a wet a windy day then but temperatures eventually quite mild after the chilly start, perhaps up to 10c by evening, although the really mild air could be resticted to SW Wales?[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]In fact late Boxing Day into Saturday has the models showing potential for a rapidly deepening low to cross the UK, obviously this feature is almost a week away, but potential for some damaging weather on Friday night and into Saturday depending on its track and how much it deepens. Best bet is for a deepening low to cross England Friday night into Saturday and which is likely to be bringing heavy rain and localised flooding along with widespread gales and possibly damaging winds. The latest GFS model output is not good with damaging destructive gales affecting all parts but especially the Midlands and East next Saturday, this driving down wintry showers and with blizzards for high ground! Just one option though with the ECM model showing a much more tame affair, but still there is a stormy possibility to be wary of. Next weekend then looking at least chilly, windy and showery, perhaps with a longer spell of rain and hill snow. Looking out to the start of 2015 and its looking mixed and perhaps turning colder?[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=234239:PPVE89 windy VM drizzle Mo wet NW Wales pm.png][attachment=234241:ecmt850.072 unsettled to Tu night wet NW Wales VM.png][attachment=234243:PPVJ89 wet WW m dry til later Mids mild.png][attachment=234240:viewimage VM windy damp MO TU wet NW Wales.png][attachment=234244:PPVL89 WEd rain clears early to bright odd sh colder pm.png][attachment=234245:ecmt850.096 Chr Eve colder bright few sh.png][attachment=234246:PPVO89 m dry Chr Day to frost night.png][attachment=234247:viewimage m dry bright Chr Day.png][attachment=234248:ecmt850.144 becomes wet windy BD.png][attachment=234249:viewimage heavy rain gales Fr night.png][attachment=234250:viewimage stormy wintry showers Sat.png][attachment=234251:ecmt850.168 windy showers lsr hill snow WEND.png][attachment=234253:viewimage rain times dry CHr Day.png][attachment=234254:viewimage H TH deep L SA.png][attachment=234255:viewimage variable temps after mild start.png][attachment=234256:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color][/size]

TonyH

TonyH

 

Weather guide Monday 15th to Sunday 21st December 2014

[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Changeable: Rain or showers at times, near average to mild temperatures; driest Midlands[/b][/size][/font]

[b]Last weeks highlights[/b]

[font=arial][size=3]An unsettled, often windy and chilly week gone, however temperatures were not far from the monthly average (around 8c) on most days, just that the wind made it feel quite cold However, a brief warm sector incursion on Tuesday saw maxima widely above 11c with a few spots such as Hereford managing a very mild 13c. Some rain or showers fell on most days in most places last week, as is usual parts of West Wales coming off quite wet overall for the week. With all the cloud and wind, and in spite of the rather cold air over us, frost was restricted until late in the week. There was some hill snow at times, but generally you had to go above 1000 feet to experience this and even then amounts appear to have been small. Heavy rain Thursday night gave over one inch to parts of Wales and half inch or so to much of the Midlands, wettest spot Trawsgoed, Ceredigion 34.6mm. After the mild, wet night Friday was mostly dry with sunny spells but quite cold, as indeed was Saturday.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3][b]The week ahead[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Overall a rather mild and unsettled week to come, further rain or showers at times. However Monday is mostly dry and bright and Friday into next weekend looks like seeing brighter, colder conditions with night frosts. It has already turned mild on Sunday morning across Wales with rain in places, indeed a cloudy, mild and rather windy afternoon too, some more rain at times, but not a washout. Mostly cloudy and breezy for the Midlands, it was chilly this morning but turning fairly mild this afternoon when there will be a litlle rain scattered about but some spots remain dry. Highs Sunday 10 or 11c for Wales and 8 or 9c the Midlands. Rain clearing West Wales (WW) after dark with a spell of mostly light rain this evening for the Midlands, just a few showers left overnight around coastal Wales. Dry soon after midnight for the Midlands, just a touch of ground frost possible for inland WW and the Marches. Monday is a quiet, mostly dry day with sunny spells, just the odd shower affecting parts of WW. Light winds Monday with maxima close to the mid December average at 7 to 9c. Clear periods and a slight frost on Monday night, down as low as -2c in places as a weak ridge crosses southern UK.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]A dry bright start to Tuesday but soon clouding over for Wales as Atlantic fronts approach. The Midlands perhaps staying dry and bright well into the afternoon and a chilly day here no higher than 6c by tea time. For WW however rain arrives during the afternoon accompanied by a freshening SW wind and along with much milder air by evening. Indeed the night is set to milder than the day everywhere! Rain at times then for Tuesday night, heavy bursts in places, temperatures between 10 and 12c for all areas after midnight. Quite a windy night too. The weather for both Wednesday and Thursday is then controlled by a deep low in the vicinity of Iceland. Elongated fronts remain strung out across Wales and England through this 48 hours or so, the air is mild and moist, this giving further spells of rain, especially for WW, and it will be windy at times too. Some detail then and Wednesday is a largely cloudy, mild and quite windy day with rain and drizzle at times, chiefly for WW, but expect no more than a few spots across the Midlands. Highs Wednesday not really changing from overnight values of 10 to 12c, although the odd 13c is possible over the South Midlands where there could be some brighter intervals. [/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Wednesday night is again very mild with rain or drizzle at times, no lower than 9 or 10c. Thursday a similar picture of mild, damp and cloudy conditions, worst of the wet weather across Snowdonia and other high ground of WW, and where some quite high rainfall totals could be totting up after two days rain! Maxima Thursday once more between 10 and 13c, best for the SE Midlands, but a fresh to strong SW to west wind. The rain then perhaps more widespread and heavier for Thursday night which again is mild and rather windy. At long last the cold front should be clearing through by Friday morning taking the rain away and introducing brighter, colder conditions. If this proves to be the case then temperatures gradually fall off through the day, afternoon values likely to be at 5 to 7c, and there will be some showers about chiefly for WW and the NW Midlands. with hail in these. Clear spells with a widespread frost Friday night, lows around zero, but with a breeze continuing to feed showers into parts of WW. [/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]A chilly NW breeze with further showers for WW Saturday too, but much of the Midlands escape dry and bright, highs between 5 and 7c which will feel quite cold. Hail showers for Wales with a little snow possible for highest ground above 500m. MIxed signals as we get as far out as Sunday, with indications of a transient ridge of high pressure so it could be a mostly dry cool day after frost - but this by no means definite. A Christmas prediction: a White one is most unlikely away from Scottish Mountains![/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3][attachment=233249:ecmt850.048 dry some sun Mo.png][attachment=233250:viewimage slight fr MO night.png][attachment=233251:PPVJ89 dry chilly Mids rain pm WW.png][attachment=233252:PPVL89 We mild rain in place esp WW.png][attachment=233253:PPVO89 mild windy wet Th.png][attachment=233254:ecmt850.120 mild wet windy Th.png][attachment=233256:metslp.120 CF through Th night.png][attachment=233255:ecmt850.144 colder bright some showers FR.png][attachment=233257:ecmt850.168 transient R weekend.png][attachment=233258:viewimage few showers Su.png][attachment=233259:viewimage changeable week overall.png][attachment=233260:viewimage v mild mid week otherwise near ave.png][attachment=233261:viewimage WW rain times most days.png][attachment=233262:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]

TonyH

TonyH

 

Weather guide Monday 8th to Sunday 14th December 2014

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
[b]Headline: Unsettled, rather cold and often windy; showers especially across Wales with hill snow; overnight frost and ice[/b][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
[b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
Rather cold but with plenty of dry weather last week, West Wales in particular having some sharp frosts. Lowest readings were -5.3c Llanwnnen and -4.8c Tirabad (Powys) on Tuesday night, then -6.3c Llawnnen and -5c Trawsgoed Wednesday night, with Friday night then cold for the Midlands, -4.1c at Pershore and -3.3c at Church Lawford the lowest readings. Sunshine at times though last week, especially Wednesday which was a lovely sunny day for most areas. Thursday was the coldest day of the week as most places stayed overcast, just 1.8c the high here at Llanwnnen thanks to an inversion (cold still air trapped at the surface) - and the coldest day here since March 2013 due to last Winter being so mild and wet! Much of Wales away from the coast and the Cotswolds did not exceed 4c on Thursday. Some showers occurred during Friday with some hail, and with wintriness over highest ground. Saturday was then a milder day for most places up to 9 or 10c along the Welsh coast, even milder air coming with the rain on Saturday night/ Sunday morning, many places getting up to 9 to 11c. Most of the Midlands has received under 1mm rain in the past 7 days, in what has been a dry start to December everywhere.[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
[b]The week ahead[/b][/font][/color][color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]

The coming week is quite cold for the most part, just briefly mild during Tuesday. Unsettled and often windy too with showers and some longer spells of rain, and snow over the hills. Just the chance that some snow affects lower ground too at times but this should not amount to much. Early rain has cleared this Sunday morning and temperatures are gradually falling this afternoon as colder air moves in from the NW. Showers, with hail and later wintriness for higher ground, affecting Wales this afternoon and evening but the Mildands are largely dry with sunny intervals, but feeling cool everywhere in a fresh west to NW wind. Further rain, hail and sleet showers affecting much of Wales overnight with continued blustery winds, a few showers may reach the Midlands too; snow in the showers above about 300m. In spite of the wind, a widespread ground frost readily forms tonight during any clear spells with lows of 0 to 3c, so icy patches to watch out for first thing Monday. [/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
Bright and breezy for Monday, mostly dry with sunny spells over the Midlands, but some more wintry showers for WW these perhaps dying down by the late afternoon. Rather cold on Monday highs between 4 and 6c. A strong but transient ridge Monday night sees clearing skies and decreasing winds, ingredients for a widespread frost, minima between 0 and -2c, milder for coasts. A bright frosty start to Tuesday then, but already cloud and increasing winds arriving for WW ahead of Atlantic fronts. These fronts in association with an intense depression crossing Iceland (central pressure below 940mbar) - and which will dominate the UK weather for the rest of the week as it gradually tracks east towards Scandinavia. Rain at times for WW by midday, and it clouds over for the Midlands early afternoon, the rain the extending here too by dusk. Much of the rain quite light but some heavier bursts for WW in particluar late afternoon to early evening. Strong SW winds for all areas through Tuesday afternoon and evening, with gales for exposed areas. At least the rain fronts do contain a warm sector and Tuesday evening sees the mildest weather of the whole week, maxima by then at 10 to 12c, tempered of course by the wind and rain! The cold front should have cleared the rain away by around midnight to give clear spells and local grass frost as temperatures sharply drop off later in the night to between 2 to 4c. Winds do tend to ease on Tuesday night.[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
During Wednesday the very deep low is situated between Iceland and Scotland, a strong cold WNW wind drives in frequent showers across Wales with some making it into the Midlands as well. Showers mostly of rain and hail, with thunder in places, but hail, sleet and snow predominates above about 300m, and even lower down dont be surprised to see a few snowflakes in the mix! Highs Wednesday just 4 to 6c, feeling cold in the wind, but South Pembrokeshire is more sheltered and so managing the odd 8c thereabouts. The showers keep on through the night across WW still with a fresh to strong wind making it feel bitter, and a decent snow cover for the hills by morning. In spite of the wind ground frost and ice may be quite a feature on Wednesday night.[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
Thursday, another windy showery and quite cold day in the offing, most of the showers again across Wales, with the Midlands afforded shelter in the main, again some heavy, locally thundery hail showers with hill snow featuring. Highs Thursday once more likely to be in the 4 to 7c range, with sunny intervals between the blustery showers. Complications for Thursday night seem likely as a secondary low develops and crosses the UK bringing more general wet weather. A wet and windy night then seems likely, gales in places and the threat of further hill snow. Frost unlikely with the cloud, rain and wind. A slight possibility that this anticipated Thursday night/ Friday morning feature decides to track across southern UK in which case we could see the rain turning to snow even at lower levels across Wales and the Midlands, so something to be aware of closer to the time when precise tracking becomes more known, but with potential travel issues perhaps for Friday morning![/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
Once the rain, sleet or snow clears on Friday morning we are back into a showery NW regime, a familar tale of rain and hail showers rattling off the Irish Sea into WW and the NW Midlands particularly, even a crack of thunder for a few of us. Again cold enough for snow above about 1000 feet, Snowdonia and the Brecon Beacons in particular seeing fresh coverings. Rather cold and windy highs 4 to 6c so another chilly day. Parts of the Midlands, as will have been the case for much of the week, escape largely dry and bright however. Next weekend and we still have low pressure north of Scotland and so our weather continues unsettled. Showers and perhaps a longer spell of rain then, with some drier, brighter interludes. Windy at times with temperatures below normal (should be around 8c), so still the risk of snow for high ground, and we could be seeing more widespread night frosts by this stage if winds ease.[/font][/color][color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
[attachment=232288:PPVG89 r cold showers Mo m dry Mids though.png][attachment=232289:ecmt850.048 frosty R Mo night.png][attachment=232290:PPVJ89 rain strong winds pm Tu.png][attachment=232291:viewimage wet windy Tu pm.png][attachment=232293:ecmt850.072 rain clears Tu night windy.png][attachment=232294:PPVL89 r cold windy showery Wed.png][attachment=232295:viewimage r cold windy showery WE hill snow.png][attachment=232296:ecmt850.120 sec L wet windy Th night.png][attachment=232297:viewimage r cold showers FR.png][attachment=232298:ecmt850.168 r cold unsettled weekend.png][attachment=232299:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=232300:viewimage low pressure from late Tu.png][attachment=232301:viewimage r cold week bar late Tu.png][attachment=232302:viewimage unsettled week.png][/font][/color]

TonyH

TonyH

 

Weather guide Monday 1st to Sunday 7th December 2014

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
[b]Headline: Becoming mostly dry and rather cold with some frosty and foggy nights[/b][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
[b]Last weeks highlights[/b]

Frosty nights early last week, Sunday night registered a low of -4.8c here at Llanwnnen, which, as occasionally happens, was colder than any of the official UK weather stations, Pembrey Sands (Carms) being the coldest of these at min -3.1c along with Benson (Oxon). A lovely sunny Monday followed but it felt a bit more like Winter, 7c the high here inland compared with 11.6c at Milford Haven on the coast - the mildest spot in the UK. Monday night even colder for many places, the -5.2c here seems to have been coldest in the UK again! However I only need delve back into the record books one year to find a colder November night, that of 23/11/13 was a chilling -7.3c in our garden. At Bablake, Coventry -2.6c did though make it the coldest November night for 4 years (-8.5c there during the severe late November 2010 cold spell) [url="http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/"]Bablake WS[/url] Freezing fog quite widespread on Monday night especially over the Midlands, the slow clearance of this restricted daytime temperatures to just 3c at Sennybridge and 4c at Coleshill Tuesday. Mild weather returned by the end of last week though, on Friday Pembrey got up to 13.7c, even milder Saturday when Trawsgoed near Aberystwyth was the warm spot at max 15.6c with plenty of sunshine! Rainfall amounts generally rather negligible last week although the Midlands was damp at times.

November 2014 has been a mild month, indeed 2014 could be the warmest year in the 350 year Central England Temperature (CET) series - only a cold December would scupper this! Rainfall has been quite variable from place to place during November; the wettest regions being Pembrokeshire and parts of the Midlands with respect to the average, with Anglesey and the Aberystwyth area having quite a dry month. Some monthly totals with % of average:

Llanwnnen 139mm 97%
Aberporth 122mm 112%
Trawsgoed 108mm 76%
Pembrey Sands 159mm approx 129%
[b]Milford Haven 186mm approx 141%[/b]
[b]Valley, Anglesey 60mm approx 58%[/b]
Coventry 87.4mm 150%
Church Lawford 68.4mm 113%
Long Lawford 71mm 127%
Pershore 99mm 175%
Little Rissington: 95mm 125%


[b]The week ahead[/b]

Early December looks to be shaping up mostly dry but colder as successive high pressure areas affect the UK, with us now into being Winter any clear skies will readily lead to sharp night frosts and the formation of thick fog patches, this can be reluctant to lift with the sun now at its weakest. Often fairly cold then looking ahead, but little sign of pronounced cold weather as yet! Sunday is another dry, mild day with sunny spells and just light winds, highs 11 to 13c, and the last time we are likely to experience such mildness for several weeks at least! Clear intervals tonight could give localised ground frost and fog patches, lowest temperatures 1 or 2c. Generally dry but somewhat cooler on Monday, variable and rather extensive cloud, misty for parts of the Midlands, maxima 8 to 10c, a few places catching a drizzly shower perhaps. During Monday night a weakening cold front moves down from the NW this bringing some rain to West Wales (WW) around midnight. Only a little rain left on the front as it arrives across the Midlands by dawn Tuesday and some places remain dry here. Lows Monday night 3 to 5c.

The front lingers but fizzles out over the East Midlands during Tuesday, so rather cloudy and cool for the East Midlands still with a little rain or drizzle in places. Elsewhere a dry day with sunny intervals, decent sunny spells even for WW. Colder with a keen NE breeze highs 6 to 8c. By Tuesday night we are under a ridge from off the Atlantic, clear spells and a widespread frost lowest temperatures -3c or -4c for prone spots of Wales, but more generally around zero. Perhaps some mist and fog patches too by morning. High pressure over the UK on Wednesday, dry with some sunshine, WW most favoured with shelter from the NE breeze. Rather cold maxima on Wednesday generally of 5 to 7c but 9c possible for parts of the WW coast where it may be quite a nice sunny day! Frost and local fog develops once again on Wednesday night given clear periods, down below zero fairly widely, again -3c even -4c for the coldest spots.

Still a dry chilly picture Thursday too, sunny spells if you are fortunate, mistly and cold if not! Highs for most in the 5 to 8c range and with light winds again. Widespread slight frost and fog in places once more Thursday night, -3c possible for inland Wales. Friday may see a weak cold front crossing the UK from the NW but it is doubtful this will produce much if any rain, a rather cold day once more should be expected with plenty of cloud. The next belt of high pressure looks like extending across southern Britain next weekend, so the mostly dry weather continues with further frost and fog by night. HIghs still below average so expect no better than 5 to 7c, colder where mist and fog lingers into the afternoon, with sunny spells where it clears or did not form in the first place.
[attachment=231344:PPVG89 m dry r cloudy MO.png][attachment=231345:PPVJ89 m dry colder Tu.png][attachment=231346:ecmt850.072 m dry bright colder Tu.png][attachment=231347:PPVL89 dry r cold WE.png][attachment=231350:h850t850eu dry r cold WE frost local fog.png][attachment=231348:ecmt850.096 dry chilly frost and fog WE TH.png][attachment=231349:PPVO89 dry bright W cloudier Mid TH.png][attachment=231351:ecmt850.168 dry weekend night frost and fog.png][attachment=231352:h850t850eu dry chilly weekend fr fo likely.png][attachment=231353:prcpWest~Midlands m dry week.png][attachment=231354:prmslWest~Midlands mostly H all week.png][attachment=231355:t850West~Midlands r cold after MO.png][attachment=231356:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]

TonyH

TonyH

 

Weather guide Monday 24th to Sunday 30th November 2014

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Often dry but chilly with frost and fog up to Thursday; thereafter rain at times and milder[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The Lampeter area had an unexpected air frost last Monday night, the low of -0.7c here at Llanwnnen colder than any official UK weather station, closest values in our regions being Sennybridge and Shawbury minima 2.8c. Tuesday a lovely sunny day across much of West Wales (WW) with Wednesday a decent day too. Much of the week had temperatures in the average to mild bracket, with 13c reached over parts of WW Thursday. Much of the week was rather dry, particularly the Midlands, but rain arrived for Friday and during daylight it was rather cool over the Midlands at just 8c or so max. Saturday in contrast a very mild day widely reaching 13 to 15c - top spot Hereford at 16.1c, nothing though compared with the 24.8c reached at Socoa beneath the Pyrénées in France yesterday![/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]The coming week[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A difficult week to call - although there will be rain in places mid week, the outlook through to Thursday is mostly dry with sunny intervals (particularly for WW) and frosty and in places foggy nights as temperatures drop to where they should be at the end of November! It then probably turns unsettled with more widespread rain at times for Friday and into next weekend, but it must be stressed that uncertainty reigns by the end of the week! Lingering rain over the East Midlands this Sunday afternoon gradually edges away, while for Wales and the West Midlands its a dry afternoon with the sun breaking through. A cooler day highs at 8's and 9's c with light winds. Clearing skies and calm this evening sees frost setting in along with the formation of fog patches. It could well be the coldest night of the Season thus far (well we have n't had any cold as yet!) down below zero widely, coldest spots of inland Wales and the Marches at -2 or -3c. High pressure over southern Britain on Monday and typically for November this will mean thick fog in places which slowly thins and clears to give sunny spells for the afternoon. Where mist and fog persists longest a chilly day at just 5 or 6c max, but where it brightens up near average at 8 or 9c. Clear and cold again for Monday night again with fog in places, frosty lows generally -1 or -2c.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A ridge hangs on giving another dry day on Tuesday, some sunny intervals - once any fog and low cloud clears that is, rather cold though maxima just 5 to 7c, milder around coasts. However a shallow low over France is bringing a front up from the south and we could see rain breaking out in places by evening. A cloudy night follows with rain at times, not everywhere wet though, NW Wales may well escape, and no frost concerns for Tuesday night. The weakening weather front keeps it cloudy with some rain in places during Wednesday for the Midlands, while WW has a dry, bright day with sunny intervals. Maxima Wednesday 7 to 9c, even the odd 10c for parts of coastal WW where it could be quite a nice day! Light winds and clearing skies sees more fog developing on Wednesday night with frost in places, lows between 0 and 3c generally.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Thursday and we are between weather systems but with Atlantic fronts crossing Ireland towards us. Mostly dry with sunny intervals after any early fog, highs a chilly 7c or so for the Midlands but a milder day for WW as southerly winds increase, 10 to 12c here by evening. Uncertainties by this stage around frontal progress/ nature, but cloud and some rain for WW perhaps during Thursday afternoon becoming more widespread and heavier during the evening seems the likely outcome. It is doubtful the rain will extend far into the Midlands until Friday however as the fronts stall over the west during Friday night, so potentially a wet one for WW. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The models are quite difficult to interpret by the end of the week (more than unsual!) and so things may not pan out exactly as anticipated here: a 'disrupting' (splitting/ stalling) trough is somewhere over southern UK during Friday so there will be areas of wet weather but hard to ascertain exactly where - as the frontal sytem's behaviour and progress will be rather unpredictable until nearer the event. Suffice to say wet in places, not everywhere though, and for some of us just a cloudy day with little rain. Temperatures should be average to quite mild, say 8 to 11c on Friday. Next weekend model outputs remain indecisive with various possibilities, best guess is somewhat unsettled with some rain at times and on the mild side with frost unlikely by this stage.[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=230679:PPVG89 (1) early fog then bright dry Mon.png][attachment=230680:ecmt850.048 dry Mo.png][attachment=230681:PPVJ89 Tu m dry after fog patches little rain eve.png][attachment=230682:ecmt850.072 rain places Tu night to WEd.png][attachment=230683:PPVL89 little rain MIds m dry Wed WW.png][attachment=230684:PPVO89 m dry Th rain wind eve WW.png][attachment=230685:ecmt850.120 rain wind WW Th night milder.png][attachment=230686:metslp.120 rain wind TH night.png][attachment=230687:h850t850eu rain places FR.png][attachment=230688:ecmt850.168 mild somewhat unsettled weekend.png][attachment=230689:h850t850eu changeable weekend some rain times r mild.png][attachment=230690:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire often dry to TH then unsettled.png][attachment=230691:prmslWarwickshire H early low late.png][attachment=230692:t850Warwickshire chilly early week milder later.png][attachment=230693:mgram_Birmingham m dry fr and fog becoming unsettled.png][/font][/color]

TonyH

TonyH

 

Weather guide Monday 17th to Sunday 23rd November 2014

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Some rain at times but plenty of dry weather, rather benign[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A fairly mild breezy week gone with rain or showers at times, especially across Wales as is typical! A mostly dry start to last week for the Midlands in particular, not much rain until the latter part of the week, even then overall the week was not a wet one for the Midlands. Temperature wise consistently on the mild side especially by night - bar some ground frost at the very beginning and again across West Wales (WW) on Saturday night. Mumbles, Swansea reached a very mild 15c Thursday, a day on which many places exceeded 13c. Friday another very mild day with some sunny spells too, Mona on Anglesey attained 14.6c, with most places getting above 13c - it had been 13.3c at midnight here at Llanwnnen! This weekend, in spite of the proximity of low pressure, has been mostly dry, and for (WW) bright, although cooler for the Midlands with a NE breeze.

[b]The week ahead[/b]

Some rain at times in the coming week but with quite a lot of dry and benign if rather cloudy weather. No Autumn storms on the way just yet! Sunday afternoon is dry with some brightness for WW although with winds off the North Sea its a rather dull and dank day for the Midlands, with drizzly showers possible in places too. Highs Sunday ranging from 10 to 13c, best for SW Wales. During Sunday night a low moves into eastern England from the Continent, its associated frontal system bringing rain to the Midlands soon after midnight and onto WW by dawn. With all the cloud no lower than 5 to 7c tonight. Monday is largely overcast with further drizzly rain at times, more especially during the morning, although perhaps some late brightness for SW Wales before sunset. Quite a cool day highs of 8 to 10c, although a 12c where it brightens over Pembrokeshire is possible. Mostly cloudy on Monday night still a little drizzle in places, but largely dry, lows 4 to 6c.

Sunny intervals should appear for Tuesday which is a dry day bar the odd isolated shower, maxima of 9 to 11c bang on the mid November average with a moderate SE breeze. A dry night with clear intervals but no frost follows. A low in the Atlantic well west of Ireland is sending fronts our way on Wednesday however these should weaken considerably as they head towards a Scandinavian blocking high. Early brightness for the Midlands but Wednesday is a mostly cloudy day and rain soon arrives after dawn into SW Wales and edges slowly NE. Rain and drizzle, generally light, on and off much of the afternoon for Wales then, but the front tends to die over the Midlands so probably only a little rain here, and the East Midlands may get away with a completely dry day with a few sunny intervals. Familiar highs of 9 to 11c once more for Wednesday, but the SE wind could be fresh for a times over Wales during the day so making it feel chilly. Any rain and drizzle left over on Wednesday evening dies away overnight, plenty of cloud and no frost, no lower than 5 or 6c.

The high to our NE exerts a reasonably strong ridge across northern Britain by Thursday which should be a dry day for many with some sunny intervals. A touch milder at 10 to 12c but still a that keen SE breeze. For Friday and much of next weekend it looks as though the Scandinavian blocking high should continue to keep Atlantic influences at bay, so plenty more mostly dry weather seem likely, although we still get weakened fronts into western UK from time to time, so a little rain may occur at times and probably with a good deal of cloud for the most part. Temperatures next weekend should be up to average (around 10c) although a minority of the models do bring in cooler air and given that particular outcome there would be a frost risk. We must also be aware that as recent as yesterday the GFS was suggesting a rather wet weekend, such are the variations in model output a week hence!
[attachment=229930:PPVG89 drizzle esp am r cool.png][attachment=229931:PPVJ89 m dry Tu.png][attachment=229932:ecmt850.072 m dry Tu.png][attachment=229933:PPVL89 some rain pm WW m dry Mids WE.png][attachment=229934:h850t850eu light rain Wales m dry Mids WE block.png][attachment=229935:PPVO89 m dry some sun TH.png][attachment=229936:h850t850eu m dry TH.png][attachment=229937:ecmt850.120 TH dry.png][attachment=229938:ecmt850.168 m dry cooling weekend.png][attachment=229939:h850t850eu often dry ave weekend.png][attachment=229940:prcpWest~Midlands little rain times.png][attachment=229941:prmslWest~Midlands H dry TH FR at least.png][attachment=229942:t850West~Midlands mild or cool latter week.png][attachment=229943:mgram_Birmingham plenty of dry weather this week.png][/font][/color]

TonyH

TonyH

 

Weather guide Sunday 9th to Saturday 15th November 2014

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Frequent rain or showers, brief drier interludes and windy at times; average to mild temperatures[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Some quite cool weather for a time last week, maxima were under 10c for many on Tuesday while most places saw slight frosts and with the first snowfalls of Autumn to highest hills such as Snowdon and Pen y Fan. The coldest was Wednesday night with a widespread air frost inland, coldest being here at Llanwnnen -2.2c and Shodon, Hereforshire -1.9c, but many places reached -1c. Showers mostly affected West Wales (WW), much of the Midlands escaping mostly dry Monday to Wednesday. Pembrokeshire caught a near constant streamer of showers coming down the Irish Sea throughout Tuesday giving totals up to 40mm locally, in contrast stretches of the Cardigan Bay coast had a completely dry and bright day, such is the nature of showery weather patterns! Wednesday was a nice sunny day generally, here at Llanwnnen an estimated 8 hours sunshine made it the sunniest day since September 22nd! Most areas caught some heavy rain during Friday, at Aberporth on the Ceredigion coast 26mm fell between 6am and midday alone.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]The week ahead:[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Another unsettled week to come, with plentiful showers or longer spells of rain, temperatures mostly around or somewhat above the mid November average (which is 10 or 11c by day), just the chance of a ground frost on a few nights early in the week, but no serious frost issues in the coming week. Rain at times for the Midlands this Saturday afternoon, while for West Wales (WW) the morning rain clears to sunny intervals and a few showers. Maxima quite mild at 11 to 13c with the wind becoming lighter during the afternoon and evening. Rain eventually clears the Midlands Saturday evening to clear spells and just the odd shower over SW Wales, chilly down to 2c locally with grass frost.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]For Sunday a shallow low is over northern Britain this giving showers in places, more especially for Wales, with the Midlands getting a mainly dry day with sunny spells. Highs Sunday 10 to 12c with a moderate SW breeze. Some showers keep going into Sunday night for West Wales (WW) but dry and largely clear for the Midlands, lows around 2 to 4c with local ground frosts. Monday sees more Atlantic fronts ganging up over Ireland these bringing rain to much of Wales by midday and then onto the Midlands during the afternoon. Maxima 10 or 11c and it will be a windy late afternoon/ evening period. A wet night then follows for many. With a low slow moving just west of Ireland Tuesday is another unsettled day, showers, even some longer spells of rain driven by a brisk south wind. Some of the showers could be thundery on Tuesday. A bit milder though at 11 to 13c and so not bad should the sun make an appearance between the showers! Some showers keep going across Wales in particular during Tuesday night which is a mild one no lower than 7 or 8c.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]With low pressure close to us again more showers look likely for Wednesday as well, perhaps a better chance of drier interludes by this stage although parts of WW may end up prone to numerous downpours by being under 'shower streets'! Maxima 11 to 13c, perhaps lighter breezes though. Perhaps a brief respite with a drier, brighter interlude for a time Thursday however some of the models are starting to show a nasty secondary low running up the Irish Sea late Thursday, so potentially gales and heavy rain for Thursday evening and night? Low pressure over Ireland on Friday means yet more showers and longer spells of rain and perhaps strong winds, but rather mild at 11 to 13c. With all this rain by later in the week we may have to watch out for localised flooding becoming an issue for certain areas..[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Next weekend the low looks set to transfer across SW UK to the English Channel, little change in the weather though with further showers and wet weather at times, it may be somewhat cooler though with easterly winds developing, so maxima perhaps no better than 10c by Sunday.[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=229102:PPVJ89 rain wind pm Mo.png][attachment=229103:ecmt850.072 Rain wind Mo night.png][attachment=229104:PPVL89 milder showers lsr tu.png][attachment=229105:ecmt850.096 milder showers lsr TU.png][attachment=229106:ecmt850.144 potential wet windy late Th.png][attachment=229107:h850t850eu potential,gales heavy rain late TH.png][attachment=229108:ecmt850.192 L SW Eng more showers weekend.png][attachment=229109:h850t850eu cooler unsetttled weekend.png][attachment=229110:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=229111:prcpWest~Midlands daily rains from Mo.png][attachment=229112:prmslWest~Midlands sub 1000 week.png][attachment=229113:t850West~Midlands ave to mild week.png][/font][/color]

TonyH

TonyH

 

Weather guide Monday 3rd to Sunday 9th November 2014

[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Cooler and showery with drier, brighter intervals; wet windy Thursday[/b]

[b]Last weeks highlights[/b]

Very mild much of last week, on Tuesday many places reached over 15c, with parts of the Midlands over 18c, warmest of all Church Lawford and nearby Coventry both at 19.9c, and some 7c above normal! Then a resurgence of really mild conditions from Thursday onward saw some remarkable warmth for the very end of October..with record temperatures by day and night for this time of year with 24c being reached in the London area. Here at Llanwnnen Thursday night only fell to 14.9c while Friday peaked at 19.4c. Many places exceeded 19c over our regions on Friday. Readings for this remarkable day across our regions Pershore 22c, Trawsgoed, Church Lawford, Coleshill and Little Rissington all attaining 21c 70f. Rainfall amounts were small in total last week, West Wales being mostly cloudy and at times drizzly while the Midlands saw a lot of dry and sometimes bright weather. Wales had heavy rain and strong winds Saturday evening however (time of my compiling this)

October was very mild and for most places quite wet. Some rainfall totals:

Capel Curig 353mm
Llanwnnen 193.8mm
Aberporth 110.2mm
Long Lawford 63.8mm
Coventry, Bablake School 72.2mm

[b]The week ahead[/b]

Cooler weather than we have been accustomed to in this coming week, down nearer the average for early November (11 or 12c). Monday and Tuesday are both to be dominated by an area of low pressure that is slow moving over the UK. Some sunny intervals but occasional showers, heavy with hail in places. As is often the case in these set ups at this time of year, warm seas means WW is most prone to showers while parts of the Midlands could escape with a dry, bright day. Cooler on Monday highs of 10 to 12c with quite a fresh SW wind. Clear spells and only a few showers for Monday night, chilly lows of 3 or 4c inland. Tuesday a similar day, showery but with sunny intervals and as usual some places escape with a mostly dry day. Quite cool highs between 9 and 11c but less wind than there will be Monday. Clear spells overnight and with light winds some places seeing grass frost by dawn Wednesday with lows of 1 to 3c.

Wednesday is transitory ridge day so a dry bright day with sunny spells, a few unlucky spots catching a rogue shower. Temperatures reaching 10 to 12c with fairly light breezes. Clear skies on Wednesday evening leads to local ground frost again down to 2c or so for the Midlands, but clouding over with the wind picking up for WW where temperatures are on the rise before midnight. A deep low south of Iceland brings wet and windy weather during Thursday, this may have set in by first thing across Wales and will soon reach the Midlands too. The rain especially heavy for WW on Thursday, a strong SW wind but a little milder at 12 or 13c max although these levels perhaps not reached until evening over the Midlands when the warm sector arrives. The rain could last well into the night especially over the Midlands, but should have cleared by Friday morning (unless it gets stalled by developing a wave which is possible). Friday then we should be back into a more showery regime with sunny intervals and a brisk SW breeze. Some heavy showers with hail for WW in particular, maxima 10 to 12c. Next weekend and low pressure still looks like dominating so further showers about, and a longer spell of wet weather could occur too. temperature look close to the average, frost should be unlikely.
[attachment=228506:PPVI89 showers Mo.png][attachment=228507:ecm500.072 r cool showery MO Tu.png][attachment=228508:PPVO89 Wed dry R.png][attachment=228509:ecmt850.096 m dry WE.png][attachment=228510:h850t850eu.png][attachment=228511:ecmt850.144 showers FR esp WW.png][attachment=228512:ecmt850.168 showery weekend.png][attachment=228513:viewimage lo wall week.png][attachment=228514:viewimage r cool to ave weeek.png][attachment=228515:viewimage showery week.png][/size][/font]

TonyH

TonyH

 

Weather guide Monday 27th October to Sunday 2nd November 2014

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
[b]Headline: Often mild, changeable with some rain at times[/b][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
[b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
A rather uneventful week, although ex- Gonzalo did produce some strong and locally damaging winds on Tuesday. Nor did temperatures deviate greatly from the norm, most days were mild, but with a couple of cooler ones in the mix. Rainfall totals were not excessive last week apart from Snowdonia where Capel Curig picked up another 3 inches (75mm) in a what has been a thoroughly wet month for Wales.[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
[b]The week ahead[/b][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
Sunday is a very mild and rather windy day, rather cloudy with drizzle in places for West Wales (WW) but dry with a few sunny intervals for the Midlands this afternoon. Highs 14 to 16c. Very mild again tonight, mostly dry the odd spit of drizzle for WW, no lower than 10 or 11c (a typical late October night gets down to around 5c). Quite a deep fetch SW flow brings even milder air on Monday. Plenty of cloud, but a better chance of sunny breaks, especially for the Midlands. Breezy with maxima in the 16 to 18c range for most. Still some bits and pieces of drizzle affecting parts of WW though. Very mild for Monday night with nowhere getting below 10 or 11c and some coastal areas of Wales staying above 13c.[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
During Tuesday we see a cold front gradually moving down from the NW, however the mostly dry weather hangs on for the Midlands where, given any brightness, the mercury tops 18c. For WW though it clouds over sometime around midday and a band of rain, heavy at times works across late afternoon and evening. In spite of this, very mild for WW too at 15c or so. Due to this rain area being slow moving parts of Wales could pick up 20mm or so. The rain extends to the Midlands during Tuesday night which is mild one except for NW Wales where skies clear. The trough may prove difficult to shift the Midlands on Wednesday, so a wet morning in prospect here, while for WW a ridge gives us a dry and bright but fresher, cooler day. The dry, bright weather should reach the Midlands during the afternoon too. Highs on Wednesday afternoon 11 to 13c. Wednesday night is dry with clear periods and cool, lows 2 to 6c generally, but milder along coasts. Fog may form in places too.[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
Wednesday's ridge is but a transient feature and for the remainder of the week a large deep Atlantic low controls our weather as it wanders to the south of Iceland. For Thursday cool air resides over much of the UK still and there may be a chilly SE to east breeze ahead of an impending mild incursion. It looks like being a cloudy, murky, cool day with light rain and drizzle on and off, highs perhaps of just 9 to 11c. Friday sees mild, moist south to SW winds flooding over the UK once more and there is the potential of quite a lot of rain for Wales. For the Mildands however most of the rain looks light and patchy for Friday but it should be a largely cloudy day. Highs Friday 13 to 15c. Next weekend and into November.. low pressure in on our doorstep to the NW so a mild and unsettled one seems likely with showers and some longer spells of rain, there is potentially for some strong winds at times too. [/font][/color][color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
[color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=227906:PPVG89 VM m dry MO.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=227907:h850t850eu VM m dry MO.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=227908:VM Mo TU.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=227909:PPVK89 rain WW late pm TU to Mids night.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=227910:PPVL89 H drying Wed cooler.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=227911:PPVO89 cool TH little rain.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=227912:ecmt850.168 showers lsr windy times weekend.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=227913:h850t850eu unsettled mild weekend.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=227914:prcpWest~Midlands some rain times Mids from Tu night m dry TH.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=227915:prmslSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion mostly lowish pressure bar mid week.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=227916:t850West~Midlands mild week but cool WE TH.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=227917:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color][/font][/color]

TonyH

TonyH

 

Weather guide Monday 20th to Sunday 26th October 2014

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][b]Headline: Unsettled with further rain at times; often mild but a cool windy blip Tuesday[/b][/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][b]Last weeks highlights: [/b][/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Last week began cool and in places wet, on Monday most places only reached 11 to 13c. Wet across the Midlands and South Wales, but much of West Wales (WW) narrowly missed this soaking. Parts of the Midlands had around an inch of rain Monday, wettest being Pershore, Worc 26.8mm. Torrential downpours over Wales on Thursday heralded the arrival of warm, humid sub- tropical air, 13mm in one hour at Llanwnnen lunchtime followed by rather warm, sunny intervals and a high of 16.6c, well above the mid October norm (14c). Thursday ended up the wettest day of the month so far with a total 31.9mm here. Many places have already exceeded their October rainfall averages, here at Llanwnnen the figure is 163mm to date (average 143mm) while Coventry is on 62mm (average 59.4mm). The very mild weather has lasted through until this weekend, Friday night was exceptionally mild for October, the low of 15.0c here being the warmest so far into October that I have recorded. Most of Wales and the Midlands remained above 15c in fact, with Trawsgoed, Mumbles and Pembrey even warmer not falling below 16c! Saturday in spite of being a windy day generally was the mildest day of the week, most places attaining 17 to 19c, not at all bad as we approach November![/size][/font][/color]


[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][size=4][b]The week ahead:[/b][/size]

[size=4]Unsettled again in the coming week, further rain at times, although perhaps not quite as wet as was last week, with the Midlands favoured for several essentially dry days; often mild, but with a cool blip Tuesday. Sunday is very mild again, after a warm night, quite a windy day, sunny intervals and a few scattered showers with highs 16 to 18c. Showers may become heavier and more frequent as we go through this afternoon over NW Wales and Cardigan Bay. A few showers keep up tonight for these same exposed areas but elsewhere a largely dry night with the wind easing and mild lows close to 10c. Brisk westerly winds brings a mix of sunny intervals and mostly light showers for Monday, the Midlands may be afforded shelter from the showers, quite mild at 13 to 15c. During Monday night a nasty little low which contains the remnants of ex- hurricane Gonzalo zips across Scotland. Although the worst of the wind and rain is over northern Britain, all of us see a spell of heavy rain after midnight along with a strong SW veering west wind with gales for exposed areas. The rain will have cleared all but the SE Midlands by dawn Tuesday. Tuesday itself is a cool, windy, showery day, fresh to strong NW winds feeding showers, some with hail, to typically exposed areas such as NW Wales, Cardigan Bay and the NW Midlands (Staffs to Birmingham), while elsewhere it could stay essentially dry and bright, just the odd rogue shower. Cool highs 10 to 12c. Showers die out Tuesday night with clear spells but not especially cold as a a breeze continues, so no lower than 5c to 7c.[/size]

[size=4]High pressure close to our south over France on Wednesday, near enough for a largely dry and bright day, especially Midlands, however a weak warm front clouds it over for WW afternoon with drizzle in places later. Maxima back up to the late October averages of 12 to 14c but it will be a breezy day. By Wednesday night we are in a broad warm sector bringing some rain and drizzle to WW in particular. A mild night no lower than 10c, and in fact temperatures may well be on the rise after midnight. A very mild SW flow for Thursday, lots of cloud but it could brighten a little over the Midlands where temperatures reach 17 or 18c in places, compared with 14 or 15c WW and where there will be further mostly light rain and drizzle on and off. The Midlands not immune from the odd spit of drizzle either, and quite a fresh SW wind on Thursday too. Mild and quite windy for Thursday night, further rain at time especially WW, not getting below 12c for most places. [/size]

[size=4]A cold front sinking SE may well develop a wave during Friday across southern Britain, and so stalling its progress, there is then potential that some areas see a thoroughly wet day, but hard to say exactly where, and no doubt some of us miss the worst of this (if it happens). Uncertainties as usual for next weekend although signals suggest further rain in places on Saturday, with Sunday having the better chance for dry weather, temperatures at least up to average. Some of the models are going for high pressure and a dry end to October, this far from conclusive however![/size]
[size=4][attachment=227415:PPVG89 breezy light showers Mo.png][attachment=227416:PPVI89 Gonzalo Mo night.png][attachment=227417:Recm482 Gonzalo wind rain Mo night.gif][attachment=227418:h850t850eu Gonzalo mon night.png][attachment=227419:h850t850eu cool showers Tu.png][attachment=227420:Recm962 m dry bright WEd.gif][attachment=227421:h850t850eu m dry bright dr later WW.png][attachment=227422:prcpWarwickshire rain times drier Mids We Th.png][attachment=227423:metslp.120 developing wave FR potentially wet.png][attachment=227424:Recm1442 potentially wet spell FR.gif][attachment=227425:Recm1682 changeable weekend.gif][attachment=227426:prcpWarwickshire rain times drier Mids We Th.png][attachment=227427:t850Warwickshire mild week bar cool blip Tu.png][attachment=227428:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/size][/font][/color]

TonyH

TonyH

 

Weather guide Monday 13th to Sunday 19th October 2014

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][b]Headline: Unsettled with rain at times, very mild but more windy from Thursday[/b][/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][b]Last weeks highlights:[/b][/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Last week was unsettled with near average temperatures, West Wales (WW) in particular had a wet week. Heavy rain and strong winds last Sunday night into Monday gave 25.9mm at Llanwnnen and this was the wettest day since Feb 14th (32.2mm). The cloud and rain lingered well into Monday afteroon across the East Midlands where it was a cool day, reaching just 11 or 12c. Although we were in much cooler air to start the week temperatures were still reaching around average generally though with some pleasant sunny spells between the showers. Thunder was a feature of the showers on many days last week, a twitter friend at St Clears reported thunderstorms each day from Monday to Thursday. Thunderstorms were widespread and quite frequent on Wednesday over West Wales, and a tornado occurred at Alfreton, Derbyshire, one of several to occur across England that day. Wednesday evening and night saw the thunderstorms continuing to affect West Wales, I observed almost continuous lightning, much of it brilliant and vivid during the evening and from various different directions, indeed it was one of the most outstanding electrical displays I have witnessed here! Many parts of WW had over 25mm in the 24 hours to Thursday morning, 31.6mm here being the wettest October day since 2008 (34.3mm 25/10/08). On Friday a torrential shower here at Llanwnnen produced a rainfall rate of 153.6mm/ hour, the highest my automatic weather station has logged in its 2 years, but thankfully only briefly! [/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][b]The week ahead[/b][/size][/font][/color]


[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][size=4]Saturday night for many was foggy with a widespread ground frost, and in a few spots such as Shobdon, Shropshire and Llanwnnen a touch of air frost as it fell marginally sub zero. The fog has been dense and persistent over the Midlands this morning but has largely cleared this midday... Sunday afternoon is fine and quite sunny if rather hazy, temperatures getting up to the average of 13 to 15c and with little wind. Low pressure moves towards southern England from the Bay of Biscay overnight, clouding over this evening and it turns wet across the Midlands by midnight and all but the NW of Wales by dawn Monday. Mostly cloudy with further rain at times through Monday, heavy bursts in places, even a rumble of thunder. A cool and quite windy day, a fresh NE wind and highs only between 10 and 13c. The exception could be Anglesey and Bardsey Island where the rain may not quite reach and temperatures nearer 14c if it remains dry here. Further rain at times, in places, even on Monday night although it should be turning lighter and patchy. This little low hangs around close to the East Anglian coast through Tuesday so a lot of cloud with a little rain or drizzle in places still, especially over the NE Midlands (Notts, Leic), while it should brighten pm over WW. Highs Tuesday 12 to 14c. Clearing skies overnight lead to local ground frost and widespread fog, lows close to 0c in the Marches and Mid Wales. [/size]

[size=4]Changes from mid week as a deep low becomes stuck out west of Ireland, the weather remains generally unsettled with further rain at times but at least it turns a lot milder for the rest of the week with a deep, rather moist SW flow becoming established. This process begins on Wednesday so after a foggy start in places, there will be sunny intervals but it then clouds over afternoon as a trough of low pressure gradually moves NE across SW UK. This brings some spells of rain into much of Wales and the South Midlands by late afternoon or evening. Maxima Wednesday 12 to 14c so not mild just yet! Wednesday night though looks mild and cloudy with rain or drizzle at times, no lower than 9c. A broad warm sector with deep SW flow has arrived by Thursday, so its turning much milder but rather windy. Thursday also sees plenty of cloud although the Midlands brightens afternoon to some sunny intervals, while WW remains mostly cloudy with some light rain and drizzle on and off. Highs Thursday 16 to 18c, best East Midlands. Very mild and breezy with drizzle in places Thursday night no lower than 10 to 12c. [/size]

[size=4]Friday too is rather cloudy with some light rain and drizzle about, the East Midlands more favoured for warm, sunny intervals, and it becomes windy with gale force gusts over WW. Highs Friday well above average at 17 to 19c. Next Friday night may be exceptionally mild for October with many places getting no lower than 14 or 15c! It may be turning more definitely wet across Wales through Friday night but this a long way off...Next weekend the same slow-moving low should have edged to the NW of Scotland, so it is still rather unsettled but very mild and quite windy, a lot of cloud but with a few sunny intervals. Fronts slowly crossing the UK bringing rain at times but highs should be in the mild to very mild 15 to 19c range, with nights still likely to be in double figures...so the central heating stays off![/size]
[size=4][attachment=226894:PPVI89.png][attachment=226895:PPVK89 cloud irdo Tu.png][attachment=226896:h850t850eu L close E little rain esp Mids Tu.png][attachment=226897:ecmt850.096 some rain pm Wed.png][attachment=226898:ecmt850.120 TH FR mild rain places esp WW.png][attachment=226899:h850t850eu v mild windy little rain WW Fr.png][attachment=226900:h850t850eu WEND v mild rain times.png][attachment=226901:ecmt850.168 WEND v mild rain and wind times.png][attachment=226902:prcpWest~Midlands some rain most days.png][attachment=226903:prmslWest~Midlands sub 1010 all week.png][attachment=226904:t850West~Midlands mild from TH.png][attachment=226905:mgram_Birmingham rather unsetteld becomes vm.png][/size][/size][/font][/color]

TonyH

TonyH

 

Weather guide Monday 6th to Sunday 12th October 2014

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Unsettled, windy at times with showers or longer spells of rain; becoming mild[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Past week/ month highlights:[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Warmth last Sunday, Pershore 22.9c, Coleshill 22.8c, with most parts just above 20c, and then Coleshill the warmest spot in the UK Monday 21.5c max.[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Last Monday saw some showery rain about, especially the Cardigan Bay area, 11.4mm falling at Trawsgoed inland from Aberystwyth compared to just 1.4mm Aberporth & 1mm Llanwnnen, while parts of the West and North Midlands caught an early evening thunderstorm, most places then had very little if any rain again though until Friday or Saturday.[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Surprising to record the Season's first air frost on Wednesday night here with a pre dawn low of -0.3c in our Llanwnnen garden! Nowhere else in Wales or the Midlands seems to have got this low, Trawsgoed the nearest at min 1.5c. However the generally warm weather lasted to Friday with some places still managing to get above above 20c. An active cold front introduced Autumnal conditions of heavy rain and strong winds on Friday night into Saturday, West Wales getting more rain in just 6 hours than in the whole of September! Anglesey was especially wet on Friday night, 24 hour totals at Valley 58.4mm and RAF Mona 56.8mm. Clearing skies last (Saturday) night saw a local touch of frost. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]September[/b] was very dry and warm everywhere. Quite a sunny month for West Wales but below average sunshine for the Midlands. It was the driest September since 1959 generally, in the Lampeter area it was drier than any September found in the local long term record back to the late 1800's, and the driest of any month for at least 12 years (April 2007 14.4mm). Some monthly totals with approx % of average:[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Llanwnnen 9.4mm 8%[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Trawsgoed 13.6mm 14%[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Aberporth 13.0mm 18%[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Pembrey Sands 10.6mm 13%[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Mona, Anglesey 14.0mm 20%[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Coventry, Bablake 4.8mm 8%[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Coleshill, Warks 5.2mm 8%[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Church Lawford, Warks 5.2mm 8%[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Long Lawford 7.1mm 14% [/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Little Rissington, Glos 6.4mm 8%[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]The week ahead:[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Sunday sees hazy sunny intervals, just the odd light shower over Wales but many places have a dry, bright day. Temperatures close to the early October average reaching 14 to 16c, the breeze freshens over West Wales (WW) in particular later this afternoon. As Atlantic fronts approach a strong southerly develops over WW this evening gusting gale force (>40mph) and with heavy rain arriving around midnight too. A wet, very windy night then for the Principality, 60mph gusts for exposed coasts and hills may bring a few trees down, even lowland inland gusts of 50mph may occur. Windy with locally gale force gusts for the Midlands too tonight the rain arriving by dawn. A wet and windy morning for the Midlands on Monday, chilly too, whilst the rain should have cleared WW by mid morning leaving only a scattering of showers for the afternoon, some heavy with hail perhaps, and much lighter winds. The rain should clear the West Midlands by mid afternoon leaving a bright, dry end to the day but may linger longer over the East Midlands, and as a consequence a very cool day here, no higher than 11c if it stays wet, compared with 14 or 15c for brighter Wales and the West Midlands. Showers may be turning more frequent with local hail and thunder during Monday evening into the night over WW, but a mostly dry night Midlands. With a deep low pressure sinking west of ireland Tuesday looks another unsettled day, showers, perhaps longer spells of rain, especially for WW, again the risk of hail and thunder, some very heavy downpours knocking about. Some showers also affecting the Midlands, but with shelter from the keen SW breeze a better chance of a dry, bright day here. Highs Tuesday in the 13 to 15c range, mildest Midlands. Showers should become restricted to western coasts and hills on Tuesday night, a cool one 3c locally with a grass frost risk.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The deep slow-moving low still close to Ireland on Wednesday, so further showers or longer spells of rain, heavy in places, even the Midlands rather wet at times too, and generally a lot of cloud. A strengthening SSW wind may be gusting gale force over Wales by Wednesday evening. Maxima ranging from 14 or 15c WW to a mild 17 or 18c South Midlands. Rain or showers keep going for WW on Wednesday night driven by the strong SW wind, while only a few showers reach the Midlands, a mild night not lower than 9 or 10c. The low still there over Ireland Thursday too, but it starts to edge away northwards. More showers then, even a longer spell of rain, and rather windy, although parts of the Midlands may escape and see some decent sunny intervals. Mild again, highs 15 to 18c, latter East Midlands. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Low pressure should be filling up over Scotland by Friday, essentially a showery day, but with lighter winds and sunny intervals, with parts of the Midlands having a dry, bright and quite warm day. Maxima Friday 14 to 16c WW, but as high as 19c Midlands. An outside chance that another low develops to our SW on Friday and drags even warmer, humid air across the Midlands in particular through, but in this scenario WW could see a spell of wet weather and not benefit. Saturday looks another unsettled showery day and a touch cooler, but pressure is on the rise next weekend and Sunday may be mostly dry with sunny spells and light winds, if rather cool... we shall see![/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=226338:PPVG89 Mo wet Mids few sh WW cool.png][attachment=226339:PPVJ89 showery perhaps TH Tue esp WW.png][attachment=226340:ecmt850.024 wet v windy Su night WW.png][attachment=226341:ecmt850.072 heavy sh Tu.png][attachment=226342:PPVM89 showers lsr windy Wed.png][attachment=226343:ecmt850.096 showers lsr r windy Wed.png][attachment=226344:PPVO89 windy showery Th.png][attachment=226345:ecmt850.144 fewer sh FR.png][attachment=226346:ecmt850.168 drying cooler weekend.png][attachment=226347:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire rain daily.png][attachment=226348:prmslWest~Midlands low all week R poss SU.png][attachment=226349:t850West~Midlands mild from mid week.png][attachment=226350:mgram_Birmingham unsettled week becoming mild.png][/font][/color]

TonyH

TonyH

 

Weather guide Monday 29th September to Sunday 5th October 2014

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Mostly dry and quite warm (particularly Midlands) with some sunny spells; more unsettled next weekend[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Although another mostly dry week gone, all of us did see a little rain midweek, the light fall on Tuesday 23rd ending a 22 day drought here at Llanwnnen. Rather a lot of cloud at times too last week, for West Wales in particular due to the winds coming from the west for a change, although there were some sunny spells especially early in the week. The Midlands saw the driest, brightest and warmest of the weather. Pershore in Worcestershire topped a rather warm 20c Thursday with sunny intervals while West Wales only managed a drizzly 16 or 17c. Friday was warm more widely over South Wales and the Midlands, with some sunny intervals and 21c 70f reached in a few spots. September is going to end up one of the driest on record, for many places since the exceptionally dry Sept 1959. Here at Llanwnnen, provided it does not rain appreciably in the last few days of the month (unlikely), it will be the[b] driest of any month in my 9 year record[/b] (April 2007 14.4mm to beat) and the [b]driest September on record[/b] too (beating 11mm at nearby Llanybydder in Sept 1986). Currently we have had just 7.7mm while some places have been even drier, Coventry for example has only received 4.8mm. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]The week ahead[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]We continue in the recurring high pressure pattern into the start of October so plenty more dry (although not completely dry) and mild/ warm weather in the week ahead. As with the past few weeks variable cloud, sunshine amounts hard to guess but we should all get at least one or two reasonably sunny, warm days this week, more especailly over the Midlands, while some other days could remain overcast but mild. Mild once we are into October is anything above 16c really, and to get 20c is certainly warm for the time of the year and as we shall experience on several days this week, especially over the Midlands! With the mild air no risk of frost in the coming week, but October will inevitably see the first widespread ground frosts, at least.. eventually.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Saturday night was very mild many places remaining above 13 or 14c. Variable cloud with some warm sunny spells on Sunday, light winds, maxima feeling very pleasant at 19 to 21c, the odd 22c over the Midlands. Just the chance this warmth sparking a shower over the Midlands late afternoon into this evening. A few heavy showers overnight too affecting the Midlands but most parts stay dry, and where skies clear fog patches forming, lows 9 to 12c generally. A weak showery trough crossing the Midlands and slowly moving away NE on Monday, most places have another warm and dry day with sunny spells, but the odd heavy shower scattered about, perhaps with an isolated thunderstorm, affecting the Midlands in particular. Maxima on Monday between 19 and 21c so well above the average for the very end of September (15 to 17c) and only gentle breezes. Again with clearing skies, fog patches form locally Monday night. Relatively high pressure over southern Britain on Tuesday so another generally dry day with some sunshine, best of this for the Midlands, as West Wales (WW) is likely to see a cloudier afternoon as the SW breeze freshens. Highs Tuesday 20c Midlands and 16 to 18c WW. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A series of weakening Atlantic fronts cross the UK on Wednesday, these expected to bring some light rain and drizzle to Wales in particular, but most of the Midlands getting another dry if rather cloudy day, just the odd light shower for the West Midlands. Highs Wednesday ranging from a warm 20c over the brighter East Midlands to 15c over damp Snowdonia. Some clear spells may result in a foggy dawn in places Thursday especially over Wales and the Marches. High pressure then rapidly builds over England and Wales on Thursday killing off the dying fronts left within it. Some vestigial areas of cloud then, but with sunny spells eventually breaking through and pleasantly mild at 16 to 19c. With high pressure still in place over the SE Friday should be generally dry again too, quite warm with sunny spells for the Midlands, 20c in places here, but perhaps more cloud and only fleeting sunny intervals for WW with a freshening SW breeze here too, so maxima restricted to, a still though mild, 16 to 18c.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Pressure does look set to drop next weekend and so we should expect the fine dry weather to break down, all of us seeing some rain or showers then but still some dry spells and no washout. A changeable and cooler weekend then should sum it up, although the Midlands may hold onto warmth for Saturday, so the possibilty of another 20c here. As we move into the second week of October the weather looks like turning more decidedly unsettled and at times wet, although it should still be warm sometimes![/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=225693:PPVG89 warm m dry odd sh.png][attachment=225694:PPVJ89 dry bright warm Mids.png][attachment=225695:h850t850eu wk fronts little rain WE.png][attachment=225696:ecmt850.096 dry bright Th.png][attachment=225697:ecmt850.168 changeable weekend.png][attachment=225698:h850t850eu changeable cooling wend.png][attachment=225699:prcpWarwickshire Mids showers Mo breakdown WEND.png][attachment=225700:prmslWarwickshire h but falls WEND.png][attachment=225701:t850Warwickshire warm week cooler by SU.png][attachment=225702:mgram_Birmingham mild m dry week.png][/font][/color]

TonyH

TonyH

 

Weather guide Monday 22nd to Sunday 28th September 2014

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Mostly dry and quite warm with sunny spells, especially for South Wales and the Midlands, cloudier perhaps a little rain affecting NW Wales at times[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Highlights of last week:[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A generally dry and warm week gone. West Wales was favoured for sunshine and warmth last week due to the easterly winds, with cloudier weather affecting the Midlands in particular at times and so restricting temperatures here. A very warm, rather sultry Thursday saw the highest readings of the week, and for many places since early August, with Whitechurch, Pembrokeshire best at 25.7c, then Llanelli 25.4c, Llanwnnen 24.4c, Aberporth 24.2c, Pembrey 24.1c, Wellesbourne 23.7c, Trawscoed and Pershore 23.3c, Coventry and Church Lawford 23.0c. Warm nights too for much of last week and on Thursday night Mumbles, Milford Haven and Trawsgoed did not fall below 17c which is more like the average daytime figure for September![/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Bar a few showers much of the week remained dry until scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday gave localised torrential falls but again some areas missed these completely. Parts of Ceredigion have had no measurable rain at all for the first 20 days of September including Trawsgoed and Llanwnnen and the countryside is now hard and dry, the few spits of drizzle not enough register in the gauge. The legacy of storms over the south on Thursday night was a cloudy, murky cooler Friday especially for the Midlands where for many it only rose a couple of degrees from the overnight values to just 17c or so. Saturday too a cooler cloudier day for most, although the Carmarthenshire coast was quite bright and warm still. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]The week ahead: [/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Amazingly the predominantly dry weather looks set to continue for the rest of the month - could the Lampeter area have a completely rainless month for the first time since February 1986? Me thinks some drizzly weak fronts this week will prevent this..Problems with some of the models this weekend means less data to go on - but we will try anyway and the general theme is for plenty of dry and at times rather warm weather, North and West Wales having the most chance of dampness at times from late Tuesday onwards, but never particularly wet even here. A weak cold front has shifted the cloud leaving a lovely sunny Sunday, just some patchy Cumulus this afternoon. Temperatures just above average reaching 17 to 19c. Clear, calm and cool tonight, 2c in the Marches and mid Wales is close to a grass frost. High pressure centred over SW England on Monday so another lovely day, mostly sunny and fairly warm highs 18 to 20c, even a 21c here and there. Clear periods but not quite as cool for Monday night. High pressure holds over the south on Tuesday but with a weakening cold front arriving into NW Wales later. A dry bright but rather breezy day for South Wales and the Midlands but cloudier for NW Wales and later Cardigan Bay with a little light rain or drizzle in places but it should be dying out as it moves SE into the high. Maxima a rather warm 20c for parts of the Midlands on Tuesday but 16 or 17c for Snowdonia where it may well turn out a cloudy and damp afternoon. This front means a more cloudy night so milder no lower than 9 or 10c and the odd spit of drizzle in places.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Ridging into the SW on Wednesday keeps it generally dry and bright, however a warm front is crossing northern Britain and so rather cloudy for NW Wales perhaps a smidgen of rain or drizzle from midday onwards. The westerly wind freshens through the afternoon, highs ranging from 19c over the Midlands to 15c for NW Wales if cloudy and damp, so feeling chilly here on Wednesday. We are in a warm sector for Wednesday night, so cloudy, mild and breezy, drizzle in places, chiefly for Welsh hills, temperatures no lower than 12c. High pressure still close enough to our SW Thursday to kill off the rain fronts passing to our north, perhaps a lot of cloud for Cardigan Bay and NW Wales, the odd spit of drizzle, but for South Wales and the Midlands it brightens to sunny spells afternoon and becomes warm at 20 to 22c, compared with 17c for NW Wales. Quite a fresh west to NW breeze Thursday though. Again on Friday high pressure should be close enough by to weaken any fronts that may reach southern Britain, so the generally dry but rather breezy theme continues and where it brightens 20 or 21c is achievable, although once more NW Wales likely to be cooler and cloudier still with the west winds blowing. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Pressure look set to build over the UK again next weekend so apart from the odd shower it looks dry and bright with temperatures at least attaining the average for the end of September (16 to 18c) so feeling pleasant in any sunshine.[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=225253:PPVG89 (1) sunny r w Mo.png][attachment=225254:PPVJ89 dry bright esp Mids Tu little rain pm NW Wales.png][attachment=225255:PPVM89 m dry bright We.png][attachment=225256:PPVO89 TH m dry bright warm Mids.png][attachment=225257:h850t850eu m dry weekend too.png][attachment=225258:prcpWest~Midlands m dry week.png][attachment=225259:t850West~Midlands r warm week overall.png][attachment=225260:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]

TonyH

TonyH

 

Weather guide Monday 15th to Sunday 21st September 2014

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
[b]Headline: Mostly dry and warm but breezy with sunny spells; risk of showers Thursday to Saturday[/b][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
[b]Highlights of the past week:[/b][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
The rather warm, very dry September continues, almost half way and some places yet to receive any measurable rain and a with a virtually bone dry week gone everywhere bar dew deposits in automatic rain gauges! The Midlands joined in with plentiful sunshine too last week, although the week ended with more cloud especially here again. The total 62 hours sunshine in the past 7 days here at Llanwnnen is most impressive for September and its rapidly reducing day lengths. Many days inland saw temperatures into the low 20's celsius but with no spectacular Autumn warmth, some of the highest readings being - Tuesday Hereford 22.2c and Coventry 22.1c, Wednesday Llanwnnen 22.6c, Trawsgoed 22.4c and Hereford 22.2c, then Wellesbourne, Warks 22.2c Friday. However nights were often cool with clear periods, lowest readings being last Sunday - Sennybridge 1.7c, Llanwnnen 1.9c, Trawsgoed 2.2c while here at Llanwnnen each night until Friday fell below 6c (average September minimum 9c) although we narrowly escaped grass frost.[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
[b]The week ahead:[/b][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
Plenty more dry and warm weather in week ahead so we are being spoilt this month, just the threat of a few showers, more especially later in the week. Sunday morning has been quite cloudy over the Midlands but bright for us in West Wales (WW). Reasonable temperatures this afternoon as the sun breaks through for all areas, maxima 18 to 21c but breezy. Just the chance of a light shower later for the North Midlands. Temperatures holding up above 10c tonight with a bit of a breeze keeping up, in fact during the week ahead the milder nights should be noticeable. Our Scandinavian high losing its grip this week with the ever- present low west of Iberia attempting to become more of an influence mid to late week threatening more unsettled conditions. Quite a keen easterly breeze on Monday, variable cloud but sunny intervals for most places, some weak fronts crossing northern Britain which may spark off a few afternoon showers for the North Midlands, but an essentially dry day with near average temperatures at 18 to 21c. Clear periods developing on Monday night, a cooler one down to 6c in parts of the inland west. Tuesday sees a somewhat warmer ESE flow off the Continent, some decent sunny breaks and warm maxima between 20 and 22c, but with quite a fresh wind developing especially later over South Wales. Dry but breezy overnight, clear periods with lows around 10c 50f.[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
The low close to Portugal and NW Spain getting its act together mid week and in so doing drags warm and quite humid air our way, but with an attendant increasing threat of showers. Wednesday however should be another dry day with decent sunny spells, especially over WW, warm again highs of 20 to 23c but still that keen east to SE breeze. The low never really properly dominates our weather this week though, as we are just too distant and escape any truly wet weather. There will be some showers developing on Thursday, over the south of our regions in particular, but few and far between these, some spots though catching a late sharp downpour. A touch warmer again for Thursday given pleasant sunny spells highs between 21 and 24c, best in the south. A mild night follows no lower than 12 or 13c generally.[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
Friday and still a warm airflow from the east or SE seems likely, earlier model charts were suggesting some very warm and potentially thundery weather by this stage, however the recent trends are less unsettled for the end of the week but without the heat arriving. Friday then, perhaps a greater shower risk, with an outside chance of thunder for a few, but the showers should be well scattered and with pleasant sunny spells once more it reaches a warm 20 to 24c, best over South Wales and the South Midlands. Less of a breeze too by Friday. On Saturday too a threat of showery rain over SW UK, so for our regions this means SW Wales and Gloucestershire most at risk of some showers on Saturday, but a new high is moving into Scotland drying things out. Sunday looks a dry, fine day with the high over us, the weekend seeing a continuation of the warmth, highs 20 to 23c so hopes then of a late Season trip to the beach! [/font][/color][color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
[color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224559:PPVG89 m dry ave some si.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224560:PPVJ89 Tu bright warmer breezy.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224561:PPVL89 we dry warm bright breezy.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224562:ecmt850.072 warms u mid week m dry bright breezy.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224563:PPVO89 Th warm sun ints odd shower breezy.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224564:ecmt850.120 TH warm few showers south.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224565:ecmt850.168 H weekend Scot becoming dry again.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224566:h850t850eu m dry warm bright weekend.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224567:prcpWest~Midlands few showers but reasonably dry week.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224568:prmslWest~Midlands never turns truly un settled.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224569:t850West~Midlands warm from mid week.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224570:mgram_Birmingham perhaps unsettled from Fr.png][/font][/color][/font][/color]

TonyH

TonyH

 

Weather guide Monday 8th to Sunday 14th September 2014

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Dry and quite warm, sunniest for West Wales, cloudier at times Midlands; some cool nights[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights:[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]At last some warmer conditions for the start of September which may have been better appreciated during the second half of August! Last Monday night was a chilly one, Llanwnnen registering lower than any of the official UK weather stations with a minimum temperature of 1.8c and a touch of grass frost around dawn Tuesday. Trawsgoed also in Ceredigion got down to 3.9c as the coolest official place. West Wales (WW) has had a fairly sunny warm week, while the Midlands, although quite warm, has often been rather cloudy with limited sunshine. In spite of a lot of cloud, Wednesday was a warm day with 21 to 23c reached widely, Whitechurch in Pembrokeshire the warmest place in the UK at 23.8c, and with 23.5c in our Ceredigion garden. Thursday was a warm, sunny one over Wales, while much of the Midlands clung on to the cloud, high spots Whitechurch 23.7c, Valley and Llanwnnen 22.6c, Pershore 22.3c and Trawsgoed 22.1c. Almost unbroken sushine gave 12 hours at Llanwnnen and the sunniest day since July. Friday was similar, sunnier and warmer for West Wales again. Saturday was a cooler, fresher day for Cardigan Bay and North Wales with the warmth holding on further south and east, chilly again last (Sat) night for Wales and the Marches, Trawsgoed down to 1.9c. A dry start to September, some places have had no measurable rain to date including here at Llanwnnen.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]The week ahead:[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]High pressure dominates again so another mostly dry week, some troublesome cloud again, but hopeful that more of us see decent amounts of sunshine, although again with an easterly so West Wales better situated for more prolonged sunshine and warmth. Sunday afternoon sees decent sunny spells for all, near average highs between 16 and 20c, a dry day too if breezy. Clear periods tonight which is a cool one down to 4 to 7c widely and a ground frost for some spots of inland Wales and the Marches where locally it dips to just 1c. Monday is another dry bright day, a little warmer highs 18 to 21c, best over South Wales and the South Midlands, all of us getting decent sunny spells with only patchy Cumulus clouds. Monday night [b]rather[/b] chilly again with clearing skies, coldest over mid Wales and the Marches, 1c with grass frost locally here, more generally at 5 to 8c. High pressure slap bang over the UK on Tuesday, another nice day, decent sunny spells, sunny even for West Wales, highs a warm 20 to 22c inland, with some cooling sea breezes. Just the chance a NE breeze drags more in the way of cloud and cooler air across the eastern Midlands afternoon though, and if so no higher than 18c here. Clear spells overnight Tuesday but not as cool, lows generally 5 to 9c. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]High pressure moves into the North Sea Wednesday, but another dry and quite warm day with sunny spells, maxmima 19 to 21c. A keener easterly breeze on Wednesday so areas of North Sea cloud may affect parts of the Midlands more widely and so perhaps a disappointing day here? High pressure still close by to our NNE on Thursday which is yet another dry, and for the west fine and quite warm day, but a distinct east breeze may make it cooler over the Midlands in particular. We should be seeing sunny spells again Thursday especially over WW, so warmest at 20c for bright Cardigan Bay with 17c for the East Midlands if cloudy. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A strong ridge from Scandinavia holds an Atlantic low at bay to the SW of Ireland through Friday and quite likely the whole weekend too. This means the dry spell continues, the best of the warm sunny spells over West Wales while the Midlands may be plagued by North Sea cloud at times given the drift of air is from the east. Given some decent sunshine though 21c is quite achievable and respectably warm for mid September (average max 17 to 19c), while nights are around average, lows in the 6 to 11c bracket. An outside chance that a trough does erode the blocking ridge by Sunday so cannot rule out some showers by this stage but a dry week does seem in prospect. [/font][/color]

TonyH

TonyH

 

Weather guide Tuesday 2nd to Monday 8th September 2014

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][b]Headline: Mostly dry and warm with sunny spells, especially in the west; possibly less settled next weekend for Wales in particular[/b][/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]A wet Bank Holiday Monday especially for the Midlands - however much of Cardigan Bay escaped with just a little rain and drizzle, wettest places that day were Capel Curig 29.4mm, Little Rissington 27mm, Long Lawford 24.8mm and nearby Church Lawford 22.2mm. There was some showery rain at times last week after the washout BH but thereafter totals generally quite low, apart from (as so often the case) Snowdonia where orographic (hill forced) rain fell quite heavily last Friday giving 28mm. [/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]A very cool Bank Holiday too across much of the Midlands and NW Wales, highs last Monday just 14c at Nottingham and not much above 15c eleswhere across the Midlands. The really cool weather eased by mid week, by Tuesday parts of SW Wales were a rather warm 20 or 21c the highest for a fortnight or so, Pembrey Sands was warmest spot in the UK at 21.1c max. No day reached 19c (late August average) here at Llanwnnen from 12th to 28th so a most prolonged spell of cool weather, with Thursday finally breaking average at max 19.5c, and then yesterday (Sunday) 20c was breached for the first time in 3 weeks! Capel Curig did not see 20c at all in August so a very poor show for Snowdonia.[/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]August was a cool, rather wet month almost everywhere, some rainfall data:[/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Llanwnnen 143.3mm (130%)[/size][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Aberporth 105.2mm[/size][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Llanelli 145.8mm[/size][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][url="http://classic.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=ICARMART4"]http://classic.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=ICARMART4[/url][/size][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Pembrey Sands 125.2mm[/size][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Hereford 84.2mm[/size][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Little Rissington 98.8mm[/size][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Coleshill 89.6mm[/size][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][url="http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/PREV.html"]http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/PREV.html[/url][/size][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Coventry approx 81mm [url="http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/"]http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/[/url][/size][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Long Lawford 86.7mm (125%)[/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]August certainly cooled down the decent Summer of 2014 which has ended up only slightly warmer than average, and with rainfall around average, except locally where downpours have made it rather wet overall. For parts of West Wales including here at Llanwnnen rainfall was below average this Summer, we had a June to August total of only 236.4mm (85%) compared with 198.2mm (115%) at Long Lawford, Warwickshire [/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Sunday was a lovely day with plentiful sunshine, and much of the coming week will be dry and warm with reasonably sunny weather at times, although some days may prove more cloudy affairs, for the East Midlands in particular. A weak front has brought further small amounts of rain overnight and during Monday, from fronts associated with former Hurricane Cristobal which recently crossed Iceland as a deep low. For most of the coming week we are under the influence of high pressure and hence the predominantly dry theme but perhaps with variable sunshine depending on wind flows and positioning of the highs. Overall I would expect West Wales (WW) to fare best for warmth and sunshine in the coming week, the East Midlands perhaps plagued by North Sea cloud at times as we will be seeing east or NE winds featuring quite a bit. [/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Monday afternoon has seen the drizzle and rain clearing the Midlands, with sunny spells for WW and eventually parts of the Midlands. Highs have been near the early September normal reaching the upper teens (17 to 20c) generally. High pressure is over us tonight so dry with clear periods and chilly lows widely below 10c and just 5c in parts of Mid Wales, after tonight the nights this week are looking milder at mainly 10 to 14c min though. Variable cloud and sunny spells on Tuesday, the East Midlands perhaps more troubled by cloud, highs for most at 20 to 22c, rather warm. High pressure over Scandinavia with more of an ESE flow Wednesday promises greater amounts of warm sunshine for all, a lovely day highs 21 to 24c with gentle breezes. Similar prospects for Thursday too, a light ESE flow off the Continent so decent sunny spells and warmth, maxima in the 21 to 25c range, decidedly warm for September. Some good opportunities for a late Season trip to the beach this week! [/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Friday, and the high pressure relinquishing its grip a little, so with the threat that some of us could catch a sharp shower or two, most likely over the Wesh hills, but in general another fine early Autumn day, decent sunny spells and warm again at 21 to 25c. A chance though of the NE breeze dragging cloud across the East Midlands so perhaps rather cooler here on Friday? Next weekend and a new high is close to Scotland so the mostly dry weather continues. Perhaps more keen an easterly breeze over the weekend but with sunny spells feeling quite warm nonetheless, maxima between 18 and 21c, perhaps best in the west and cooler for the East Midlands, where cloud may be more prevalent. Nights too cooler, certainly falling below 10c and even down to 3 or 4c locally, quite close to a ground frost. A minority of the modelled outcomes of late suggest it turns less settled as we go through the weekend, but the likelihood is of quite a fine weekend and indeed start to the following week, with any rain or showers likely to be restricted to Wales.[/size][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][attachment=223411:PPVG89 m dry variable cloud rw Tu.png][attachment=223412:PPVJ89 warm SP.png][attachment=223413:ecmt850.048 warm SS TU WE.png][attachment=223419:h850t850eu warm SP widely We.png][attachment=223414:PPVL89 warm SS Th.png][attachment=223415:ecmt850.096 warm SS Th.png][attachment=223416:metslp.120 H changeover days m dry warm.png][attachment=223418:PPVO89 m dry isolated sh warm Fr.png][attachment=223417:ecmt850.144 m dry warm weekend.png][attachment=223420:prmslWarwickshire H likely all week poss lower Weekend.png][attachment=223421:t850Warwickshire warm week.png][attachment=223422:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion less settled weekend WW.png][attachment=223423:prcpWarwickshire chance less settled SU MO.png][attachment=223424:mgram_Birmingham dry warm week.png][/size][/font][/color]

TonyH

TonyH

 

Weather guide Monday 25th to Sunday 31st August 2014

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b][font=arial]Headline: Unsettled, rain or showers at times (especially Monday); near average temperatures but some cool weather still[/font][/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][font=arial]A notable and unusually cool spell of weather over the past week or so, 'Autumnal' being a most apt adjective. [/font]Here at Llanwnnen the highest reading since a week Saturday a poor 17.2c (Sunday 17th), while the average maxima since Wednesday 13th August (12 days) is just 16.4c and unprecedented here for August in my albeit short record (11 years), with no day getting above 18c. Three successive days failed to reach 16c at Llanwnnen - again an almost unprecedented occurrence at this time of year, poor Capel Curig never getting higher than 16c all week! The week started not as cool though for the Midlands in particular, close on 20c recorded on Monday at Church Lawford on Monday, thereafter all downhill! Coventry has not been above 17c since last Monday.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Some of the more notable cool maximum temperatures of last week: Aberporth 14.4c and Llanwnnen 15.2c on Tuesday, Sennybridge (Powys) 13.8c, Capel Curig (Snowdonia) 14.0c, Little Rissington (Cotswolds) 15.2c and Llanwnnen 15.2c all Wednesday then the lowest just 13.3c (56f) the 'high' on Thursday at Capel Curig. Nights were chilly too, especially from mid week, some of the lowest readings being: Sennybridge 3.6c on Tuesday night; Llanwnnen 2.6c (with an unseasonable touch of grass frost), Hereford 3.4c, Pembrey Sands 4.2c, Little Rissington 5.3c all on Wednesday night; Pembrey Sands 3.6c Friday night; then last night Capel Curig 3.7c, Sennybridge 3.8c, Pershore 3.9c (with a ground frost) Mona & Pembrey Sands 4.3c. This prolonged very cool spell means August will end up a cool month in spite of the warm start.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]At least the showers were well scattered and mostly quite light, most places getting at least a dry day or two last week, and rain totals for most were low, indeed some spots escaped with a virtually dry week. Coventry only having 1.0mm, Coleshill 1.0mm, Pembrey Sands 2.4mm, while Trawsgoed in contrast caught quite a few showers obtaining 30.8mm over the past week.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Sunday and it has clouded over across much of Wales but the Midlands has had a bright morning. A dry but increasingly cloudy afternoon for most, bar the odd isolated shower, but with rain gradually spreading into Pembrokeshire during this afternoon and the rest of West Wales (WW) early this evening. Another cool day, no higher than 17c for many but 19c for brighter parts of the East Midlands, so not feeling too bad here. Moderate winds for the most part on Sunday, but a freshening southerly for Wales this evening along with the rain. Rain and drizzle at times for all regions tonight, a milder one though. The deep low bringing this rain is situated close to SW Ireland on Monday with its rain fronts ahead of it, so a wet day for many especially in the south of our regions where over 25mm is possible in places, even 50mm for a few spots, perhaps in the Cotswolds, which may cause flooding. Quite windy too on Monday and very cool with all the cloud and rain, highs no better than 18c, and even 15c for wetter spots of the Midlands. Further showers or longer spells of rain for Monday night as the low crosses southern England. Still a trough left over the SE on Tuesday so another unsettled day, rain or showers knocking about, more specially for the Midlands, probably mostly dry with some sunny intervals later for WW. Temperatures closer to the late August average at 18 to 20c. A weak high east of Scotland tries to dry things out on Wednesday, sunny spells and mainly dry for a time,but the next front may be bringing some further showery rain into much of Wales and the SW Midlands through the afternoon, that it clouds over means rather disappointing temperatures 18c for WW and but perhaps 21c for the East Midlands with brightness. LIght to moderate SE breezes on Wednesday.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][font=arial]A shallow low or trough seems likely to be crossing over us Thursday so another rather unsettled day threatens some further rain or showers in places. Rather cool 18c for WW and a more respectable 20c for the Midlands on Thursday afternoon. [/font]Friday and Saturday see a continuation of the unsettled weather so more rain or showers at times, some places getting more than others, there should be some sunny intervals too during which it will not feel too bad. The models were showing some promise of drier and warmer conditions next weekend, however this signal now seems to be faltering, so even Sunday may be seeing showers or longer spells of rain knocking about too? [/font][/color]

TonyH

TonyH

 

Weather guide Monday 18th August to August Bank Holiday Monday 2014

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][color=rgb(28,40,55)][font=arial][b]Headline: Cool, sunny intervals and hit and miss showers; drying weekend but perhaps wet Bank Holiday Monday[/b][/font][/color][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][color=rgb(28,40,55)][font=arial]The past week was a cool and showery one, as always in these showery set ups, some places saw torrential downpours and thunder while others missed the worst. [/font][/color]Downpours and thunderstorms were quite widespread on Thursday, here at Llanwnnen 10mm fell in just 15 minutes on Thursday morning, with a maximum rain rate of 123mm/ hour briefly, while [color=rgb(28,40,55)][font=arial]45mm fell in 24 hours Thursday at Swyddfynnon, Ceredigion. In contrast Valley on Anglesey collected just 0.2mm Monday to Saturday inclusive while quite a few spots missed the worst of the showers after Monday. [/font][/color]A rather cool week past overall, especially for Cardigan Bay and NW Wales where some days did not exceed 17c. The Midlands and SW Wales fared rather better in the temperature stakes, much of the Midlands managing 19 to 21c and so closer to average on some days. Wellesbourne 21.1c on Wednesday being highest reading of the week across our regions, however on the same day Capel Curig in Snowdonia did not better a miserable 15c! Cool nights in the second half of the week, Bala 3.7c, Trawsgoed 5.4c Thursday night lows, then Friday night down to 5.9c here at Llanwnnen, and 6.1c Pembrey Sands. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Another essentially cool and showery week to come, as ever showers hit and miss - some areas may even escape with a reasonably dry week, while other get a good soaking from time to time. Cool, sometimes very cool for all, it is doubtful that anywhere will reach 21c (70f) in the coming week in spite of sunny spells. Some of the colder spots of Wales and the Marches may even see an unseasonable ground frost by the end of the week.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The remainder of Sunday afternoon is rather cool and windy, strong to gale force gusts especially for North Wales, a scattering of showers, heavy in places, as usual some of us escape with a dry afternoon. Maxima this afternoon 16 to 19c and much as they will be all week. We should be seeing 19 to 22c at this time of year on average, so a cool week indeed. The fresh to strong NW wind continues tonight, clear spells and dry for most, but some showers rattling into NW Wales and Cardigan Bay, lightning and hail may be a feature of these. The wind prevents temperatures dropping so low, around 10c in general.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A deep and large low pressure is circulating over Scandinavia for much of the week, dragging Arctic air south across the UK. Sunny intervals with hit and miss showers on Monday, some places catch heavy downpours with hail, temperatures in the 16 to 19c range, some decent sunny intervals but a fresh NNW wind.Clear periods, less wind and cool overnight, down below 10c for most of us. Again showers may continue to train down the Irish Sea into northern and some western parts of Wales through the night, so a rather wet night in places here.Tuesday sees plenty of cloud with more widespread showers and possibly longer spells of rain, especially for NW Wales and the NW Midlands. Very cool on Tuesday 'highs' just 13 or 14c over Snowdonia and 15 to 17c elsewhere. Clearing skies and reducing windspeeds means some low temperatures for August on Tuesday night, widely 5 to 8c, and 2c for parts of inland Wales and the Marches, so the chance of a of grass frost locally. Another sunny intervals and showers day on Wednesday, more chance of some areas escaping with a basically dry day though. Highs Wednesday back into the 16 to 19c range, best for the Midlands and coastal South Wales sheltered from the cool NNW breeze which will though be lighter. Another very chill night for Summer to follow, coldest spots over inland Wales again, down to just 3c with a grass frost just possible very locally. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Lighter winds too on Thursday with a slacker pattern over the UK, sunny intervals and some showers again, the odd heavy one in places, again some areas stay essentially dry while the next village gets a prolonged soaking with a clap of thunder! Familiar but cool temperatures between 16 and 19c, it will feel pleasant enough in the sunny breaks given only gentle breezes on Thursday, a few spots in the Midlands perhaps touching 20c. Clear spells and some showers overnight, chilly again temperatures in the 4 to 8c range away from cities and coasts. Similar Friday too, showers in places, some pleasant sunny intervals, cool though for August, maxima generally in the 16 to 19c range yet again, perhaps very cool though for NW Wales where showers may 'gang up', and if so no better than 15c here. Clearing skies means that Friday night is yet another very cool one down to 8c generally, 4c though locally with mist and fog patches by dawn. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Bank Holiday weekend and changes as an albeit somewhat tenuous ridge crosses the UK trying to kill off most of the showers. Saturday hopefully will be a largely dry and bright day although still on the cool side highs 17 to 20c so a slight improvement. The ridge may just about hang on for Sunday but an Atlantic low is heading towards Ireland threatening rain and wind as we go through the day, and quite likely into Wales at least by evening. Holiday Monday may see us entering another unsettled spell although a warmer one. Showers or longer spells of rain the guesstimate then for Holiday Monday with a low set to cross Britain, at least milder SW winds taking over by then![/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=222214:PPVG89 cool showery r windy Mo.png][attachment=222215:h850t850eu cool showery mo.png][attachment=222216:PPVJ89 cool showers Tu.png][attachment=222217:h850t850eu showers lsr v cool Tu.png][attachment=222218:ecmt850.072 showery cool Tu We.png][attachment=222219:ukmintemp local GF Tu night.png][attachment=222220:PPVO89 slack some showers Th.png][attachment=222221:h850t850eu light winds fewer showers TH.png][attachment=222222:ecmt850.120 lsr TH night.png][attachment=222223:ecmt850.168 tenuous R Sat to rain Su.png][attachment=222224:ecmt850.192 unsettled BHM.png][attachment=222225:prcpWarwickshire showery week wet by BHM.png][attachment=222226:prmslWarwickshire lowish tenuous R wend.png][attachment=222227:t850Warwickshire cool all week.png][attachment=222228:mgram_Birmingham showery cool week.png][/font][/color]

TonyH

TonyH

 

Weather guide Monday 11th to Sunday 17th August 2014

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Often cool and showery, some sunny spells, windy at first; perhaps mostly dry and becoming warmer Friday to Saturday[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The worst of the rain and showers held off last week, so most places ending up with a reasonably dry, bright and warm week. Some exceptions as always, on Monday and Tuesday some places caught downpours with thunder but these few and far between, then a wet Tuesday night, Valley on Anglesey getting 43mm rain in less than 12 hours. The nights were cool at times last week, readings of around 7c in rural areas, Shobdon, Herefordshire getting down to 6.5c last Sunday night, and then just 5.1c at Sennybridge Thursday night, and here at Llanwnnen 6.8c the low first thing Friday. Temperatures in the average to warm category (low 20s celcius) for the most part last week, but without any especially high temperatures, the highest I have seen being 24.2c at Church Lawford on Thursday, then Friday with 24.6c Llanwnnen, 24.8c Coleshill and 25.7c Wellesbourne, Warwickshire which was the warmest spot in the UK. The warmth on Friday set off further thundery showers and storms over the East Midlands, Nottingham getting flooding - 2014 has been a very thundery year![/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Some heavy rain and thunderstorms in places this morning associated with the remnants of ex- hurricane Bertha that are presently crossing Wales and England. Indeed some parts of England in particular at risk of severe thunderstorms, even tornadoes today, such is the input of energy and mixing of differential wind and temperatures within this system. The rain has already cleared this Sunday morning to sunny intervals and showers across West Wales (WW) while the rain continues into early afternoon for the Midlands, as said, with a risk of thunderstorms here. Highs Sunday afternoon in the 17 to 21c range, and it will turn quite windy as we go through this afternoon. Most of the showers and storms die out this evening to leave a largely dry and quite cool night but a breezy one, some showers still affecting Welsh coastal districts though.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The deep low that was Bertha sticks between NE Scotland and Scandinavia through the first half of this coming week, about which blow showery and cool west or NW winds. A similar pattern then through to at least Wednesday or Thursday, basically one of sunny intervals and showers, some heavy, and even a longer spell of rain may be in the offing, more especially perhaps during Tuesday. There will also be hail and thunder in the showers in places. Temperatures on Monday near normal at 18 to 21c so not feeling bad out of the wind in any sunny breaks, but Tuesday through to Thursday are decidedly cool Summer days, we will be lucky to see 20c and even cooler for NW Wales in particular where some days may well not exceed just 16c (61f) - poor indeed for August! Nights rather cool too in this first half of the week at somewhere around the 10c mark. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Pressure is on the rise from Thursday but even the end of the week looks essentially cool and showery, the NW breeze less of an issue by this stage, so perhaps not feeling all that bad in the sunny spells. Maxima on Thursday and Friday cool in the 16 to 20c range still, best for the East Midlands. With the lighter winds by the end of the week and given clearing overnight skies, some decidedly cool late Summer nights can be expected, down to just 4 or 5c perhaps in rural locations, though nearer 8 to 10c for cities and coasts. Showers should become fewer and farther between on Friday and with some decent sunny spells by this stage as a ridge approaches from the west.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Our ridge looking a temporary affair next weekend although we may get away with a dry, bright and rather warm Saturday, low 20s celsius over the Midlands. By Sunday though there may be showers about once more although at least temperatures should stay reasonably warm. Looking further ahead out towards the end of August (and Summer 2014) and the models have a rather unsettled and not so hot look about them - although that could still alter for the better![/font][/color]
[attachment=221390:PPVE89 DL NE Eng tonight.png][attachment=221391:ecmt850.024 DL NE Eng tonight.png][attachment=221392:PPVG89 windy showery MO.png][attachment=221394:PPVJ89 r windy showery poss lsr TU.png][attachment=221399:h850t850eu showers lsr TU.png][attachment=221395:ecmt850.072 r cool showery perhaps lsr TU WE.png][attachment=221398:h850t850eu cool showery WE.png][attachment=221396:PPVO89 cool showers less windy TH.png][attachment=221397:ecmt850.120 r cool showery TH FR less windy.png][attachment=221400:ecmt850.168 brief R Sat more showers Su but warmer.png][attachment=221402:h850t850eu fine Sat turning unsettled Sun warmer.png][attachment=221403:prcpWarwickshire showery week.png][attachment=221404:prmslWarwickshire R WEND.png][attachment=221405:t850Warwickshire r cool all week.png][attachment=221406:mgram_Birmingham showery cool week.png]

TonyH

TonyH

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