At the [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4452-very-early-first-look-at-winter-20122013/"]start of August[/url] I posted a blog entry giving a forecast for the winter ahead now 30 days later it's time for an update.
[b]Rainfall Averages,[/b]
[b]October:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] Still looking average for the UK but Southern Scotland below average.[/font][/color]
[b]November:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] Below average for mo
[center][b]The Biggest Weather Events Through The Winter And How They Were Forecast[/b][/center]
During the winter of 2011 into early 2012 we had some very active Atlantic storms this was due to a strong jet steam. The winter of 2011 and 2012 will not be remembered as a cold and snowy one but we did get some cold weather near the end.
[b]11[sup]th[/sup] September 'Hurricane Katia'[/b]
[center][attachment=138689:katia.jpg][/center]
The first low pressure system headed towards the Brit
[size=3]Before I start bear in mind I am using the CFS model data and looking out to 6 months so things are likely to change I am just looking at early signs and what its saying at the moment.[/size]
[b]Rainfall Averages,[/b]
[b]October:[/b] Average for most but below average in Northern Ireland and Scotland.
[b]November:[/b] Average.
[b]December: [/b]Average.
[b]January:[/b] Average.
[b]February: [/b]Average for South and below average for North.
[b]Temperatures[/b] looking average
[b]Introduction,[/b]
Over the course of September and October this year I carried out a experiment to see what weather models performed the best at different time ranges from 24 hours to 144 hours.
[b]How it works,[/b]
Firstly I would let all the models do their 12z runs so none over them had a 12 hour advantage over another. Once they had done their 12z run I would pick a location and each model predicted its thought on it. The models then get awarded points on how close they are.
[
[b]El Nino[/b]
It's expected to stay in the neutral zone for the rest of this summer. But slowly dips down during autumn. It will stay around the -1 mark through the winter so not as strong as lasts winters.
[attachment=119400:El Nino June 2011 Onwards.gif]
[b]Rainfall[/b]
July is looking average for rainfall amounts which is good news for those that need some.
[attachment=119401:July Rainfall.png]
August in Southern Scotland and Northern England may see slightly less rainf
