Here are some pictures of what the weather looked from space during the winter. Of course most of the time the UK was covered in cloud but here are the rare few moments when it was clear enough to see.
[b]18th March 2015[/b] - Snow over the very top of the Scottish Highland mountains can be seen.
[attachment=247548:18thmarch.png]
[b]9th March 2015[/b] - Storm passing over the NW of Scotland bringing gusts over 90mph.
[attachment=247544:9thmarch.png]
[b]17th February 2015[/b] - Mos
I'm using the Climate Simulator which I've used over the past 2 years and found it to be very accurate for predicting average temperatures for long range forecasts and also I will be using the CFS maps as well. I have compared all of my data to last years to make comparisons and fine tune my forecast.
[b]December[/b]
Climate Simulator - The dark blue line at the top show our average temperatures and the red line just underneath it shows our forecast temperature for December. It's saying as
[b]Introduction[/b]
Hi all, since 2011 I've done a yearly weather model experiment to find the best performing one.
The previous winners were,
2011 ECM
2012 UKMO
2013 GEM
This time the experiment took part during December 2014. We will be testing the nine weather models listed below,
European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts = ECM
Japan Meteorological Agency = JMA
Met Office = UKMO
Canadian Weather Service = GEM
Global Forecast System = GFS
Global Forecast System P
Welcome to the weather model experiment of 2013, in 2011 the ECM won it and in 2012 the UKMO won it but what model performed the best through out this experiment? It took place in December 2013.
These are the 9 models that took part in this experiment and some of them are new the NAVGEM, NASA and CMA which have never been tested before against the rest.
GFS
ECM
UKMO
JMA
GME
GEM
NAVGEM
NASA GEOS5
CMA
So how does it work? I let each model do its 12z runs and I pick a random locati
[b]Introduction,[/b]
Over the course of September and October this year I carried out a experiment to see what weather models performed the best at different time ranges from 24 hours to 144 hours.
[b]How it works,[/b]
Firstly I would let all the models do their 12z runs so none over them had a 12 hour advantage over another. Once they had done their 12z run I would pick a location and each model predicted its thought on it. The models then get awarded points on how close they are.
[
In 2011 I done a experiment to see how the models perform in 2012 I done the same thing. The experiment took place during September and October. Basically how it works fairly they all make a forecast on the same day at the same time (12z) then when the actual time comes I check the actual weather conditions and see how accurate they were. The models faced tough challenges mainly in September when Hurricane Nadine made the models struggle. The points system rewards the models more points the furt
[center]Update 21st July 2013[/center]
[color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
A small update from my original summer forecast back in May,[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica]
First onto August and September the CFS seems confident on average temperatures for the rest of the summer. As for rainfall, August average with some Western area's seeing below average rainfall as we move into September things change around with most of the UK seeing very wet weather to end the summer.[
[center]Updated summary below and in the comments - Last Updated 9th February 2013.[/center]
[center][size=5]2012 - 2013 Winter Forecast[/size][/center]
[center]Written By Sean Macdonald aka on NW weathermaster[/center]
[center][b]How the forecast has been made[/b][/center]
I've used the CFS monthly mean maps that pick up long range trends for the upcoming months. But I have also used a program called ''Climate Simulator'' to help back up my forecast in certain area's. I used the p
At the [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4452-very-early-first-look-at-winter-20122013/"]start of August[/url] I posted a blog entry giving a forecast for the winter ahead now 30 days later it's time for an update.
[b]Rainfall Averages,[/b]
[b]October:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] Still looking average for the UK but Southern Scotland below average.[/font][/color]
[b]November:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] Below average for mo
[size=3]Before I start bear in mind I am using the CFS model data and looking out to 6 months so things are likely to change I am just looking at early signs and what its saying at the moment.[/size]
[b]Rainfall Averages,[/b]
[b]October:[/b] Average for most but below average in Northern Ireland and Scotland.
[b]November:[/b] Average.
[b]December: [/b]Average.
[b]January:[/b] Average.
[b]February: [/b]Average for South and below average for North.
[b]Temperatures[/b] looking average
[center][b][size=5]9. Blocked pattern towards the end of November and start of December.[/size][/b][/center]
[center][img]http://i707.photobucket.com/albums/ww79/Sean2e5/Nov_zpsa5004e46.png[/img][/center]
It was something that got many people talking about what December may hold for us. Some remained positive but for others they thought it wasn't good enough and cancelled winter before it had even properly started.
[center][size=5][b]8. December a month of the models taunting us with e
[center][size=5]10. False taste of winter[/size][/center]
[center][attachment=210712:29Nov.png][/center]
Towards the end of November the UK got it's first taste of winter with strong Northerly winds and some wintry weather around as well.
[center][size=5]9. The January tease[/size][/center]
[center][attachment=210721:Jan.png][/center]
January was mostly settled and it always felt like it was leading up to something the models would show us some cold charts then downgrade them as
[b]September 2014[/b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica] - Based on computer generated long range forecasts and the climate simulator that takes the current climate conditions and simulates ahead of time for a forecast prediction.[/font][/font][/color]
[b]Rainfall[/b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] - Most places in the UK and Ireland will be average but Southern Ireland, most of Scotland and England apart from the Northern parts will see below average rainfall. Scotland
[b]October 2014[/b] - Based on computer generated long range forecasts and the climate simulator that takes the current climate conditions and simulates ahead of time for a forecast prediction.
[b]Rainfall[/b] - Northern Ireland and Western Scotland are the two area's that are very likely to see more than average rainfall during October. Meanwhile the rest of the UK looks to see average rainfall amounts.
[attachment=225563:octoberrain.png]
[b]Temperature[/b] - All parts of the UK and Ir
A few days later than usual but here it is.
[b]November 2014[/b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] - Based on computer generated long range forecasts and the climate simulator that takes the current climate conditions and simulates ahead of time for a forecast prediction.[/font][/color]
[b]Rainfall[/b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] - All of Ireland, Wales and Western parts of England and Scotland look to see above average rainfall while Eastern parts of England and Scotland see a
[center][size=8]NOGAPS[/size][/center]
[center][size=6]1982 to 2013[/size][/center]
[size=4][b]The Start:[/b] NOGAPS came into the world in 1982 it's job was simple give the Navy a weather forecast. It impressed people by going to 180 hours and bringing in 4 updates per day.[/size]
[size=4][b]It's Prime: [/b]NOGAPS did have a prime moment when it was new and updated reguarly it could compete well with the other models at the time.[/size]
[size=4][b]The Mocking: [/b]In the past few year
[center][b]The Biggest Weather Events Through The Winter And How They Were Forecast[/b][/center]
During the winter of 2011 into early 2012 we had some very active Atlantic storms this was due to a strong jet steam. The winter of 2011 and 2012 will not be remembered as a cold and snowy one but we did get some cold weather near the end.
[b]11[sup]th[/sup] September 'Hurricane Katia'[/b]
[center][attachment=138689:katia.jpg][/center]
The first low pressure system headed towards the Brit
[color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][size=5][b]May 2014 -[/b][/size][/font][/color][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] [/font][/color][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica]Based on computer generated long range forecasts and the climate simulator that takes the current climate conditions and simulates ahead of time for a forecast prediction.[/font][/font][/color]
[b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica]Rainfall[/font][/font][/color][/b]
[color=rgb(40,40,40
[size=5][b]March 2014 - [/b][size=4]Based on long range forecasts and the climate simulator.[/size][/size]
[b]Rainfall[/b]
After the wettest winter since records began there are signs of above average rainfall continuing into March especially for the West.
[attachment=208606:MarchRain.png]
Eastern parts are likely to see average rainfall amounts.
[b]Temperature[/b]
The South East of England is likely to see 1°C or maybe even 1.5°C above average temperatures as the rest of the
[b]El Nino[/b]
It's expected to stay in the neutral zone for the rest of this summer. But slowly dips down during autumn. It will stay around the -1 mark through the winter so not as strong as lasts winters.
[attachment=119400:El Nino June 2011 Onwards.gif]
[b]Rainfall[/b]
July is looking average for rainfall amounts which is good news for those that need some.
[attachment=119401:July Rainfall.png]
August in Southern Scotland and Northern England may see slightly less rainf
[color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica][size=5][b]June 2014 -[/b][/size][/font][/font][/color][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica] [/font][/font][/color][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica]Based on computer generated long range forecasts and the climate simulator that takes the current climate conditions and simulates ahead of time for a forecast prediction.[/font][/font][/color]
[b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica][font=helvetica]Rainfall[/
[b]July 2014[/b] - Based on computer generated long range forecasts and the climate simulator that takes the current climate conditions and simulates ahead of time for a forecast prediction.
[b]Rainfall[/b]
Southern parts of Ireland and the South West of England are the two area's where above average rainfall can be expected. Elsewhere can expect average rainfall although there are some hints that the Midlands may see some spells of wet weather and the South West of Scotland some dry spell
Hi everyone, well its that time of the month again when I release my monthly forecast. My winter forecast released back in November seems to be doing okay at the moment you can still read it here [url="https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4843-winter-2014-2015-forecast-december-to-march/"]https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4843-winter-2014-2015-forecast-december-to-march/[/url] Anyway here are my latest thoughts on January 2015.
Made using the CFS long range model along with th
To view part 2 you can click [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4469-very-early-first-look-at-winter-20122013-part-2/"]here[/url].
[b]Rainfall,[/b]
[b]October:[/b] It looks like Northern parts of the UK will experience lower than average rainfall meanwhile Southern parts will get more rainfall.
[b]November:[/b] It is looking mainly average for most of the UK but again Northern parts may see lower rainfall.
[b]December: [/b]The below average rainfall trend continues from
[url="http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4480-first-look-at-autumn-2012-and-the-winter-ahead-part-3/"][b]View part 3 here[/b][/url]
It's been 4 weeks since the last update and we have seen an interesting end to October a lot colder than expected.
[b]Rainfall,[/b]
November: Below average for Scotland and Ireland but average for England and Wales.
December: Across Northern Scotland slightly above average and for the South West of England slightly below. Elsewhere looks average.
