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Winter thought's

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A Change On The Way ?

This morning's models continue to show a change to more unsettled conditions next week , the high looks to slowly receed back south westwards with a slack northerly or north westerly flow taking over , The models today show a far less potent shot of cold than was shown over the last few days , with the exception of the ECM which has decided to build heights towards greenland on it's 0z output. Gfs 6z seems to have 2 attempts at a northerly but both fail in bring any sustained cold air over the uk.

My instinct tells me that the time is over for any worth while cold over the uk for the 08/09 season , The exception to this could be the cairngorms with remaining cold pools flirting with the far north at times. I think northerly's will probably happen all the way through april but I don't think they will bring with it the threat of snow to england and wales.

A warmer than recent summer is on the cards this year I think with the azores tending to extend eastwards over the uk on a regular basis . At time's this could extend far enough east to pull in a really hot feed from the south . Late summer storms to be followed by an indian summer in september. Then cooling down for the start of winter , basicly I think next year will see the season's start to get back to normal and at normal times.

I might try a proper long range lrf next winter , just for a laugh but we will see.

It is now time for a quick cuppa before getting some work done , roll on next week as I'm off all week , let's hope the weather plays ball for me.




I Just Can't See It Happening ..

Good Evening all , Haven't managed to write a blog since christmas so I thought i'd write a few thoughts down now. Well what a winter season this year , 10 days of snow falling here in Leicester from the 1st of February and finishing on the evening of my birthday on the 9th with Heavy snow and strong winds before becoming milder on the 10th. I have to admit after seeing the build up to this years season though this winter was not as good as I expected it to be , but it was a good start . I will be very interested to see how quickly the cold pooling to our north starts to build this september .

Onto winter's last blast , I really can not see it happening , Every northerly that has shown up recently has moved eastwards and missed us , energy still looks to strong to the north to allow the high pressure to build into greenland , indeed tonight's (18th march) Ecm doesn't allow the high to move into greenland at all. Because of the energy to the north I think we will get a break down to unsettled conditions but it is likely to come from the north west and linger close to the uk sending the winds westwards and giving a more flatter patten.

Even if the northerly did come off as gfs currently shows it , the uppers are only around -5 in the south with would not support lying snow at this time of year so a wintry mix would be the most likely outcome .

The biggest problem us weather watchers have at the moment is the models being so unreliable and to make that problem worse is that most of the models are seeing the same wrong signals. I am tempted to say that the mmw may be a factor as the models don't know how to handle it. ( I know there is no direct info on this fed into the models , but the global effects of it obviously are. )

I am going to finish this blog off with a poll to see what you all think will happen to the progged northerly . I give it a 30% chance at the moment meaning I think it is more likely not to happen .

Cheers all





Abit More Promising Than Yesterday ...

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]Well compared to the rather dissapointing gfs runs of yesterday the 00z ecm and gfs 6z have decided it may get colder after all. Ukmo try's to bring a south easterly in on christmas eve night.

Maybe a few snow furries for the south east as we head towards boxing day although I do not think it will be in the right place to class it as a white christmas.

Ecm brings in north easterly winds by late xmas day as does gfs. Gfs then get's thing's really cold with -10 850's filtering right across the uk. We then eventually end up with a 1065 high pressure over greenland with a 1040 high pressure over scandi at the same time. I do not think this will be the exact way it will plan out, but height rises seem the order of the day for some time to come.

I'm now awaiting 12z to see if the trend continues for an easterly componant for christmas day. My advice don't look past +168 it is pointless no matter what it shows.

p.s. I mentioned In my blog entry yesterday I was going to be at woolworths this morning, I got outside for 8.30 at there loughborough store and the que to get in before they even opened was about half a mile long.. needless to say I didn't bother. I am working near skegness on monday ( my last day yay) So hopefully there woolworths will be a little less packed and I might pick up some decent weather equipment.[/font]




Christmas Is Coming

[b]Christmas is less than a week away now and I have still got so many presents to get, I'm going to try and be down woolworths at 8am tomorrow morning and bag some 60% off bargins. I wonder if woolworths sell weather equipment ?? . It's another dark cloudy misty day in leicestershire today with plenty of drizzle around a true sign that we are now into winter. Is the official start to winter still the 21st december ??. So christmas and what do I think it will bring ....

Well high pressure now looks likely to be slap bang over the top of us, I think this will bring a cool cloudy day with plenty of mist and fog around. I think sunny spells will be at a premium with mist and fog lingering all day in some area's under very light winds. This will also aid to keep things cool with a max of not higher than around 5 degrees for the midlands. Into christmas night and I think there is a good possibilty temps will fall below freezing in the midlands, with scotland a little warmer.

Into boxing day and things are starting to get a little complicated as it all depends on where the high decides to go . There are clear signs for northern blocking so i'm thinking there will be no sinker at the moment. I would expect some kind of easterly to evolve at some point during the first half of january due to the constant blocking to our north east. But from the 26th - 30th i'm going to go with cool mainly dry with high pressure over us or ridging over us.

Yesterday's 12z showed very nicely what could happen in this situation, It is all up in the air with wild model swings, although the essembles are slowly starting to lean towards a colder sollution.

Anyway that's my thought's for now.