[size=4][font=arial][b]Summary[/b]
The past week for the Alps have been one for the skiers to enjoy the sunshine, but at the expense of long term snow especially on lower slopes, where temps have been above freezing and snow depths have been effected.
A suggested last week, areas further east have faired better with temperatures being much colder, with some snow at the start of this working week.
[b]Synoptic Pattern[/b]
I have changed the charts a little this week, removing the 850HPa ch
[font=arial][size=4][b]Current Situation [/b]
Heavy snow throughout the Alps last weekend transformed the Alps, with over 50cm of fresh snow widely and over a 1m in places. Things have turned slightly milder in recent days, so not quite as good as last weekend, but overall still a massive improvement.
[b]Synoptic Situation[/b]
The current pattern is a mobile generally westerly flow across the Atlantic, with a prominent Azores High (AZH). Currently the AZH has ridged further east across ma
[b]Current Situation [/b]
Last week it was reported that conditions across the Alps were pretty poor for the time of year. The past week has been very mixed indeed with some snow over last weekend. This was followed by some very mild temps with freezing level reaching over 3000m. However for Christmas it turned colder with a little fresh snow in places.
[b]Synoptic Situation[/b]
However there is a big change for this weekend and into next week already in progress. The Low Pressure system th
[b]Current Situation [/b]
Definitely a week of contrasts, fronts from the North West brought snow to the Alps for the mid part of this week especially on Wednesday with parts of the French Alps and Switzerland seeing 20-30cm of fresh snow on upper slopes.
However there is a big but in that temperatures rose significantly with freeing levels well above 2000m.
In summary conditions are better than last week and with some good skiing conditions at the highest slopes. However conditions are still
[b]Background and Current Position[/b]
There have been a number of articles about the lack of snow in the Alps. As move in the middle of December, this is the time of year when many resorts open however the lack of snow at some resorts has meant this being delayed. What has helped though is some snowfall to low levels and some cold weather allowing those all important snow cannons to operate.
So in summary conditions are worse than normal, but we have seen worse years.
[b]Synoptic Patte
[b]Background and Current Position[/b]
This is the first Alps blog for the winter season 2014-15, so far this autumn/winter period it has been mixed for snow conditions. There has been some snow at times even down to some lower levels, however due to the milder weather recently much of this has thawed, although parts of Austria did see some fresh snow last week.
[b]Synoptic Pattern[/b]
Currently the main driver for the Alps is low pressure to the South West of Italy, with East to North
So today the gates opened on Glastonbury, and we are finally here at the Final Blog for Glastonbury.
Today looks a bit better than predicted for Glastonbury, with more in the way of sunny spells, than recently suggested.
I'll now split the forecast into the next 48hrs, which is the range of the higher details models and then the remainder of the forecast.
[b]Synoptic Summary[/b]
As the main focus in now on the day to day detail, I was firstly summarise the Synoptic position. Low Pres
So the gates open tomorrow, and what does the last minute weather models show us. We pretty much know that tomorrow will be dry and bright, but the big question is, how much rain will the Low pressure bring to Glastonbury over the subsequent days.
We have passed the point of overall ratings, so I will not be showing that any more in favour of daily summaries and forecasts.
Moving very swiftly onto the daily forecasts.
[b]Wednesday 25th June [/b]
With so much agreement on the overall
So all of a sudden it is two days to go before the gates open at Glastonbury 2014, do we finally have an idea of the weather for the festival. The general theme is sorted to an extent, a decent day Wednesday with the remnants the settled spell before getting worse Thursday/Friday, and possibly improving again over the weekend. However even the above summary give a large scope of variation for the detailed ground conditions at Glastonbury.
[b]Previous Runs[/b]
Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
F
This is the latest blog for the Glastonbury festival.
Previous Runs
Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 10 (17 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 11 (18 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 12 (19 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 13 (20 June) - 4.5
with 0 = Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath
[b]Wednesday 25th[/b]
Good Agreement between the GFS runs, UKMO 06Hz run and both runs that the High Press
This is the latest blog for the Glastonbury festival.
Previous Runs
Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 10 (17 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 11 (18 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 12 (19 June) - 5.5
with 0 = Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath
A slight change in the format, with an attempt to forecast by days of the festival as opposed to by model.
[b]Wednesday 25th[/b]
Decent
This is the 12th blog for the Glastonbury festival.
Previous Runs
Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 10 (17 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 11 (18 June) - 5.0
with 0 = Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath
Generally looking mostly settled with High Pressure to the South West, and a ridge of High pressure over the rest of the UK on this Sunday.
[attachment=216719:ECM 19 June to
This is the 11th blog for the Glastonbury festival.
[b]Previous Runs[/b]
Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 10 (17 June) - 5.0
with 0 = Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath
[attachment=216675:Trendline to 17 June.JPG]
After the ominous charts on Monday 16th, a lot better charts yesterday, resulting in a better rating, will today continue the trend.
[b]GFS Operation
This is the 10th blog for the Glastonbury festival.
[b]Previous Runs[/b]
Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0
with 0 = Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath
[attachment=216591:Trendline to 16 June.JPG]
So in recent days a trend to an unsettled start to the festival, was it a new trend or maybe a blip.
[b]GFS Operational runs[/b]
[b]06[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
High Pressure centred to th
This is the 9th blog for the Glastonbury festival.
[b]Previous Runs[/b]
Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
with 0 = Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath
[attachment=216517:Glastonbury Trendline to 15 June.JPG]
Until yesterday, things had looked a bit more promising with a bit more longevity of the high Pressure, however yesterday was not so good, is this the start of a new trend or a blip.
[b]GFS Operational
This is the 8th blog for the Glastonbury festival, and covers the runs from Thursday to Saturday inclusive.
The previous runs have been rated 4.0, 4.0, 5.0, 5.5, 6.5, 5.5,4.5 with 0= Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath
Over the past few days things have looked a bit more promising with pressure around the festival period circa 1020mb, and not much in the way of washout runs, although a completely dry festival equally unlikely, what does today have in store.
[attachment=216388:Glastonbury Rollercoas
This is the 7th blog for the Glastonbury festival, and covers the runs from Thursday to Saturday inclusive.
The previous runs have been rated 4.0, 4.0, 5.0, 5.5, 6.5, 5.5 with 0= Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath
[sharedmedia=core:attachments:215998]
The theme has been for a while that High Pressure is likely to remain next week, ith pressure slowly falling back to 1020mb, the big question then was would low pressure take over.
Onto each of the forecast methods.
[b]GFS Operational runs[/b]
This is the 6th blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June],
Previous Blogs Summaries
No 1 Issued 11 May - Mostly Positive
No 2 Issued 18 May - Mostly Positive
No 3 Issued 25 May - Neutral
No 4 Issued 1 June - Neutral/Slightly Negative
No 5 Issued 8 June - Slightly Negative
The format of the forecasts will change from this one significantly as we are now in GFS range. We came into GFS range on Monday, and I though that after 3 days of runs we might be able to see a pattern
This is the 5th blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June],
[b]Previous Blogs Summaries[/b]
No 1 Issued 11 May - Mostly Positive
No 2 Issued 18 May - Mostly Positive
No 3 Issued 25 May - Neutral
No 4 Issued 1 June - Neutral/Slightly Negative
At this stage of the forecast, I am using a variety of techniques.
[b]1. CFS Monthly Averages
2. CFS Raw Daily Runs
3. CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily
4. NOAA 500Mb Upper Charts[/b]
The NOAA upper charts are new for this week, as we
This is the 4th blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June],
[b]Previous Blogs Summaries [/b]
No 1 Issued 11 May - Mostly Postive
No 2 Issued 18 May - Mostly Postive
No 3 Issued 25 May - Neutral
At this stage of the forecast, I am using a variety of techniques.
1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
2. [b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b]
3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b]
By next week, we will be starting to get into Long Range for the festival, and this will be reflected in the for
This is the 3rd blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June], the first 2 blogs were mostly [size=4][font=arial]positive.[/font][/size]
At this stage of the forecast, I am using a variety of techniques.
1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
2. [b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b]
3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b]
So moving on to the detail.
1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
Using the raw charts from Net Weather Extra, titled under the section Long Range Forecast Maps.
[b]June[/b]
[
This is the second blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June], the first blog was mostly [size=4][font=arial]positive.[/font][/size]
At this stage of the forecast, I am using a variety of techniques.
1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
2. [b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b]
3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b]
So moving on to the detail.
1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
Using the charts kindly supplied from Paul
[attachment=213364:Temps 18 May.JPG] [attachment=213365:Precip 18 May.
This is the first blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June]
At this stage of the forecast, I am using a variety of techniques.
1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
2. [b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b]
3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b]
4. [b]MJO Index[/b]
So moving on to the detail.
1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
These are produced weekly and this week Paul has very kindly supplied me with a higher resolution version of the forecast.
[attachment=212739:June Rainfall May 11.JPG
This is the final forecast for Glastonbury 2013, so thanks for reading and for your comments.
Unfortunately the rain yesterday totalled 10mm and this has caused some mud on site, this was forecast but only very recently, so earlier forecasts in the week did not pick this up. According to site reports, the wet ground and dampness is starting to dry out and today’s brightness and warmth should help matters. There is a front currently to the North West which may give a little bit more rain thi
114
35