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forecasts and the like

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Forecast for rest of feb

Im going to stick my neck out and give my forecast for the remainder of the month: I would suggest firstly that as this present setup breaks down over the next few days, we will have a string of medium strength low pressure systems flowing in from the atlantic, bringing milder weather. Temps will fluctuate between mild and cool, with no exceptional weather. This pattern will likely last till around the 16th or 17th , at which point the jet will begin to die away over the western atlantic. The low pressure systems from the atlantic will likely have moved across us, possibly on a fairly southern track, by around the 19th Feb. A period of slack pressure in the north west atlantic will follow, accompanied by a (probably weak at first) southerly tracking jet, of eventually varying strengths. Simultaneously, the AO will take another dip into negative territory, though the extent of this dip is dificult to predict. Nonetheless, heights will rise to the north, leading to an incursion of colder air from the north/north east. This will probably only be short lived, as the AO characteristically fluctauates towards positive again, and the blocking falls away south eastwards, by the 25th. There may be a brief spell of easterly weather while this happens. However, while a brief spell of zonal-type weather may follow, a further plunge from the AO will be accompanied by heights rising once more, and perhaps more significantly, to the north, as a much more amplified jet moves in to the west atlantic from north america, assisting northern blocking. Thereafter, a more southerly jet combined with blocking over greenland, perhaps extending towards Scandinavia, could lead to a generally north easterly flow, with a spell of cold weather at the end of the month the result.

wellington boot

wellington boot

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