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About this blog

this will be my own forecast ideas

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Lrf Update - Friday 16 July 2010

If you look at my post from last week I suggested that a spell of 7-10 days unsettled weather was likely before it settled down by the end of the month. The generally unsettled pattern has occurred and will likely last for a few days yet. However I stick by the suggestion I posted that surface high pressure will become the dominant factor by the end of this month. On the synoptic scale the 500mb anomaly charts, all 3 versions, have slowly come round to the idea of an upper ridge developing

johnholmes

johnholmes

 

Lrf Ideas-Friday 9 July 2010

Rather than never be sure whether this type of post should be in model or technical I've decided to drop this and any others into my blog area. That way I will know where it is each week!Please add your comments, but I'd appreciate constructive type replies about your belief in it being good or bad let alone right or wrong.I'm always happy to have a chat via pm if you prefer that way.John[attachment=102177:will the hot spell return soon-9 jul10.pdf]

johnholmes

johnholmes

 

The Coming Weekend - 29-30 November

[b]This weekend's outlook, starting from Wednesday 26 November[/b] We can forget about long term effects over this short time period. Our eyes are turned to the 3 main models at what is now T+72 on Saturday. Indeed we need to start looking from tomorrow when the first hint of the colder air returning will be seen. The Met O Fax chart for T+36, (currently at 1630), shows it nicely. The cold front moving fairly quickly through most of the UK by dusk or soon after for the far southeast. [attach

johnholmes

johnholmes

 

blog 26 what will happen over the weekend?

hi This will do for a start for my view of the various models and the possible outcome. Its by no means certain, apart from being a heck of a lot cooler in the south, and pretty unsettled just what will develop through the latter part of the weekend. As I say, this will do for a start and I'll do a blog from Friday evening on how/where the low(s) are and their predicted paths by the 3 main models. Blog_26_into_the_BH_weekend.doc John

johnholmes

johnholmes

 

blog 24 to the BH weekend

hi This is my take on how the weather will develop from mid week into the weekend. blog_24.doc Monday I'll update this later today. The models coninue to be uncertain just how the weekend breakdown will occur. John

johnholmes

johnholmes

 

blog 22

hi renaming the blog but otherwise content the same. blog_22.doc sorry about the charts and black surrounds, will do blog 23 the correct way I hope. John

johnholmes

johnholmes

 

my annual sun burn warning

hi If you read this please do take note. I would hate you to end up with skin cancer. It can be very minor, just having cuts and stitches but I lost a very good friend when his skin cancer turned into something lethal. May I just make a plea to all you sun lovers, all pretty young, well at least compared to me. Soggy Wales comments about being on chemo - can I ask is that for cancer? To all you others, please, please do take very great care. Some of you mention looking like a lobster, stop allow

johnholmes

johnholmes

 

blog 16 - the T+144 and its actual - now

hi I was not going to issue another until tomorrow but as I seem unable to break into the discussion tonight so I thought I would put my ramblings down as a post for anyone to read it. What I'm trying to get across, and failing on the model thread, is that the model at T+120 is very very close in its predict to what we have today. This is NOT to say its other predicts from that time will be accurate but it is worth just trying to prevent Net Wx lemmings jumping off the cliff for a further 24 hou

johnholmes

johnholmes

 

blog 8

as in my post in the 06z model thread. this is issued at 1050 on Monday 05/02/07 Blog_8.doc John

johnholmes

johnholmes

 

blog 6

my latest ideas at 1030 on Sunday 4th february 2007 its a big file again with a couple of charts so please be patient whilst it downloads. Blog_6.doc

johnholmes

johnholmes

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