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Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 16 January 2016

Current Synoptics and Conditions Recent weeks has seen the Alps transformed with heavy snowfalls down to resort level, with superb on piste skiing conditions generally. However there is the concern of avalanches off piste, as shown by the tragic events the past week. This weekend temperature is set to remain very cold giving very good conditions over the Alps. Synoptics Ongoing Very much a classic battleground situation this week. Whenever cold air gets over Western parts of Europ

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Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 8 January 2016

Current Synoptics and Conditions There has been a change to the conditions over the alps over the past week or so, with colder and snowier conditions becoming more prevalent, more especially over higher slopes. There has been further snow this week, at times to lower levels. However as can be seen when looking at the synoptic chart, winds have returned to a South Westerly direction, so some of the snow has thawed at lower levels. There is also an avalanche at some slopes so be careful off p

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Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 1 January 2016

Current Synoptics and Conditions Firstly a comparison of where we are now, compared to what was suggested in previous blogs. The synoptic pattern is generally very similar to what was suggested on Tuesday, however more of the Alps has a feed from the SW as opposed to the South East. There has been a snow topup in parts of the Western Alps, but not to the extent forecast on Tuesday. Synoptics Ongoing A bit of a change in the weather pattern in the upcoming week. Initially con

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Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 29 December

Current Synoptics and Conditions Very much a case of deja vu for much of the Alps, mild and settled with SW winds.  However high pressure over Eastern Europe is feeding in very cold air for the far east of Austria. Ongoing Synoptics At the time of the last blog, I was discussing whether the colder weather forecast for Scandinavia would edge South Eastwards towards the Alps. It now looks like this will largely miss the Alps, with the coldest air only impacting the far e

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Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 24 December

Current Synoptics and Conditions The current pattern over the Alps has seen some very mild and largely settled weather. Very good for getting out and about, but not any good at all for "natural" snow conditions. However, with clear conditions, even under this mild airmass, temperatures drop sharply overnight, meaning that snow cannons can be used. As a result, on piste conditions are reasonable, but off-piste remains very poor for the time of year. Looking at the pattern for today, com

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Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 18 December

Current Synoptics and Alps Weather Summary The mild weather continues to effect the Alps with conditions and temperatures better reflecting early Spring than Early Winter. The use of snow cannons has meant that many piste runs are open, especially at higher levels, however a quick glance at webcams will show that off piste conditions are a different story, either closed or showing pastures of green. Comparing the forecast for last week to today's synoptics. While the pattern

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Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 11 December

Current Synoptics and Alps Weather Summary Last week was a largely mild one across the Alps with mild South South westerly winds within a tropical Maritime air mass If we look at today's chart (left) and compare to the forecast charts from the last blog (right) we can see the general weather pattern is very similar, however the low pressure  is slightly further to the west, however the High pressure is very much still dominant over mainland Europe, and if anything stronger than previou

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Winter Forecast 2015/16

I usually start these off with a recap of last winter, but this year I covered that in a separate blog, so here's one I made earlier: Moving onto this winter, there are a number of factors that make this a really fascinating one to watch. I'll go through each of these in turn, explaining what they're likely to do and how that's likely to affect us, before going on to look briefly at the methodology of the forecast, and, finally, getting to the fun bit, where I pull all of this together

LomondSnowstorm

LomondSnowstorm

 

My winter tracker

[size=2][b][color=#000000]Winter 2014/15 Oldham East[/color][/b][/size] [size=2][b]none event​[/b][/size] [size=2][color=#000000][b]Winter 2012/13 Snow Days and Accum's[/b][/color] [b][color=#696969]5th Dec 2012:[/color][color=#0000FF] [/color][color=#0000FF]Light covering :)[/color] [color=#696969]6th Dec 2012:[/color] [color=#0000FF]Sleety snow showers 12pm onwards 1-2cm accumulated.[/color][/b][/size] [b][size=2][color=#696969]13th Jan 2013:[/color] [color=#0000ff]2cm [/color][/size][

Snowmad79

Snowmad79

 

A Winter's Tale Snow Diary 2015/2016

Friday 13th November - Wet snow shower from the west in the morning - no lying snow Friday 20th November - Snow from a band from the north late in the day - Lying snow of a brief dusting Friday 27th November - Snow shower from the west late in the day - no lying snow Sunday 29th November - Snow showers from the west late in the day - no lying snow Thursday 10th December - Snow shower from the west late in the day - no lying snow Thursday 31st Decenber - Snow shower from the west

A Winter's Tale

A Winter's Tale

 

Recap of 2014/15 forecast (2015/16 forecast to follow...)

Before I start on this year's forecast, it's worth recapping last year's one for a look at what went right, and (moreso) what went wrong, and why. If my 2013/14 forecast was wrong but for the 'right' reasons i.e. the synoptic pattern for the NH that materialised was similar to the one that was predicted even if it was milder than I'd predicted for here, last winter's was pretty much the opposite, for Scotland at least. A look at the predicted/analogue (left) vs the actual height anomalies (on

LomondSnowstorm

LomondSnowstorm

 

El Nino vs UK winter

[code=auto:0] Weak El Nino (Oceanic Nino Index SST Anomoly +0.5 to +0.9) Dates Winter Class Info 1951 – 1952 Mild & snowless According to reports this winter was generally mild but snowy in March 1952 when easterly winds and blizzards caused havoc for the South East. 1952 – 1953 Mild & snowless Despite a cold end to Autumn with 20-25cm of snow across a belt from Wales to East Anglia the winter turned out to be rather snowless with more in

Snowmad79

Snowmad79

 

Tempelfjorden Glacier

So I have finally been able to go out in the field. My first trip was to Tempelfjorden tidewater glacier. This glacier has the highest surge rate in the Svalbard region. Sadly we could not get close, for obvious reasons; calving. When arriving I was lucky enough to witness a carving event, although not of great magnitude. I have attached a few images of the calving front, which was several hundred meters. Not the englacial feature in the zoomed picture. [attachment=257846:P8070012.JPG][attachm

Mark Bayley

Mark Bayley

 

Svalbard - the first days

I am enrolled at UNIS,Svalbard, studying Arctic glaciers till September. I am hoping to keep this blog updated with details of what I am up to and pictures. So far I am limited to Longyearbyen, having not received gun training, but next week will start with fieldwork. The weather has so far been sunny, and rather warm, reaching a high of 15c yesterday. The constant light is taking some getting use too! I'll be visiting a local glacier on Thursday, where I hope to update!

Mark Bayley

Mark Bayley

 

Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 13

So this is the final full blog for Glastonbury 2015, ahead of the gates opening tomorrow. [b]Daily forecasts [/b] [size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June[/b][/size] [attachment=253786:GFS 23rd June 12Hz + 24.JPG] Mostly Fine and Dry with a small ridge of High Pressure over Southern parts of the UK. Sunny to start, a bit more cloudy in the afternoon. Temps low 20s, [b][size=3]Thursday 25 June[/size][/b] [attachment=253785:GFS 23rd June 12Hz + 48.JPG] Very similar conditions to those of Wednesday

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Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 12

Well we are nearly there, and for some of you this will be the last Glastonbury blog you read, so enjoy Glastonbury whatever the weather. [b]Run up to festival[/b] The promised rain arrived in Glastonbury, a little earlier than anticipated and looking at radar returns close to 10mm of rain fell in the past 24 hours. Which according to people on site, hasn't made things too wet. [b]Daily forecasts [/b] [size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June[/b][/size] As per recent forecast low Pressure remains

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Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 11

This is the 11th blog, and there have some real ups and downs. The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive. The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive. The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. The 8th blog (Issued 18 June

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Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 10

This is the 10th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015. The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive. The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive. The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. The 8th blog (Issued 18 June) was slig

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Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 9

This is the 9th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015. The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive. The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive. The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. The 8th blog (Issued 18 June) was sligh

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Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 8

This is the 8th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015. The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive. The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive. The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. So a definite trend towards a wet fest

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Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 7

This is the 7th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015. The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive. The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive. The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. This forecast will contain charts for the past 2 days, and most of these charts were already posted in the main thread yesterday. As we move closer

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Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 6

This is the 6th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015. The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive. The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive. This forecast will be split into 3 main sources [b]1. Prognostic Charts at 6-10 day and 8-14 day [from NOAA][/b] [attachment=253140:610day.03 from 14 June.gif] [attachment=253149:610day.03 from 15 June.gif] [attachment=253141:814day.03 from 14 June.gif] [a

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Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 5

This is the 5th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015. The previous blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive. IMO a definite trend is starting to emerge, which I will outline later, of course whether or not this is accurate, time will tell. This forecast will be split into 2 main sources [b]1. Prognostic Charts at 6-10 day and 8-14 day [from NOAA][/b] The 6-10 day chart at this poll covers the immediate run up to the festival while the 8-14 day charts covers the festival period itself.

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