[b]Barry's January & February Forecast[/b]
A similar theme of Atlantic dominated weather will continue into January, temperatures in the south will be between 8-11C, while in the north temperatures will be between 6-9C. Rainfall will widely be above average, causing more flooding in places, especially in the south west.
Into the middle of January, temperatures will be slightly below average as air comes from a more Northerly direction, in the south temperatures will range from 5-7C and
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Continuing very unsettled, further spells of rain and localised flooding. Average to mild temperatures[/b][/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A very wet wet week gone- totals of 50mm for Coventry and 79mm at Llanwnnen, 41mm of this falling in the 24 hours to midnight last night alone at the latter. Coventry and Warwickshire in 2012 has had double the rainfall that fell in 2011, 800mm or so against 400mm or so. Llanwwnen has had a thor
[b]Alps / Europe Past week [/b]
The forecast last week suggested a rather variable week with fluctuating freezing levels and snow conditions.
[b]This week for the Alps in Summary - [/b]The trend towards milder weather increasing for the start of the forecast period, and with 850HPA temps of over +10c at times, no surprise that it will be very mild or even warm for a time. However it is set to turn much colder on Christmas Day and at this stage fresh snowfalls are expected in many areas, es
[b]Initial forecast[/b]
Overall im finding it rather difficult to produce a forecast, but then isn’t it always! What’s apparent is the PV shall remain disrupted and disorganised as we progress through December. I am generally supportive of height rises to the NE given the latest runs, although feel that these will transfer nearer Greenland as we progress through the month when we see further wave breaking disrupting the vortex and leading to more movement of the PV segments. This would al
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
[b]Headline: Unsettled with rain and wind at times; rather cold to mild temperatures[/b][/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A decent cold snap last week. The Midlands was especially cold due to persistent freezing fog, this meant that Coventry failed to top 0c on both Tuesday and Wednesday, while at least west Wales enjoyed plenty of albeit chilly sunshine.[/size][/font][b] [/b][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Night-wise, Llanwnnen got down to -7.4c
[b]Alps / Europe Past week [/b]
The forecast last week suggested a mostly dry week over the Alps and cold or very cold. As ever the following link gives the latest conditions [url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/overviews/tips_full"]http://www.snow-fore...views/tips_full[/url] this seems to suggest that the bas forecast was right at least until Thursday. However much milder weather has swept across the Alps today or tomorrow for much of the Alps.
[b]This week for the Alps in Summary - [/b]S
Looks like we could be in for some pretty appalling conditions up here later tonight and into the early hours.
SE-E winds are forecast to reach Storm Force with gusts between 70-80mph. As if that weren't bad enough theres a possibility that it could turn to snow again for a time between about 2100 and firt thing tomorrow sop we could well see some really atrocious blizzard conditions for a time.
On top of all that is the highest astronomical tides of the year tonight so we could have a win
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Cold, sunny and frosty to mid week. Unsettled and turning less cold, with rain at times from Thursday (outside chance of snow in places)[/b][/size][/font]
[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A mixed, unsettled and quite cold week gone, almost two inches of rain falling here. Few places saw more than a few flakes of snow during the week, and it looks as though this theme SHOULD continue. However, were I typing this guide last Thursday I would have been
[b]Alps / Europe Past week [/b]
Last week I commented about the improvement over the Alps, this week has continued the vast improvement, and there has been a transformation of snow conditions from green field to deep snow over most Alpine mountains and down to resort level quite widely. This also means a very good base has been established which is now likely to remain to the end of this season.
For most of November there was mild weather over the Alps, with the snow line rising back up th
I really have no idea where to begin with the new blog of the new year, but anyway.
For the past month or so, we have been receiving what I can only describe as moderately cooler than
normal temperatures, but not on the scale of 2010. If we compare both years, then it's fare to say that
this year would definitely be classed as much milder...why? because back in November 2010, the average
temperature during the final week of the month was around 2C which is significantly colder than this, in
The forecast ran as follows:
[quote]Changeable, near-average temperatures
November 2012 will be a changeable month with low pressure set to control the weather for most of the time. The long-range signals point to near-average temperatures and no significant cold spells during the first two-thirds of the month at least.
Low pressure centred over northern Scotland will bring a rather cool and showery theme during the first five days of the month, with the majority of the showers in weste
[b]Headline: Rather cold, rain or showers at times; frosty at times, snow less probable.[/b]
A reprieve from the rain last week, only 4mm falling since Monday here. As the models predicted it turned cold from mid week, and on Thursday morning Llanwnnen was colder than anywhere else in the UK getting down to -7.5c and only managing 1.8c during the day - very cold for November. Church Lawford, Warwickshire, had a minimum of -5c on Saturday morning. Turning milder early this week briefly, then g
[b]Alps / Europe Past week [/b]
For most of November there was mild weather over the Alps, with the snow line rising back up the mountains, however there were indications in the models last week that it would turn colder this week with snow arriving back on the mountains.. As ever the following link gives the latest conditions [url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/overviews/tips_full"]http://www.snow-fore...views/tips_full[/url]
In summary there was quite a lot of snow across the higher reso
December 1st: Welcome to winter, and a fantastic way to start it with another sub 5C maxima, frost and fantastic sunshine and wintry scenes aswell as some snow showers across parts of Scotland. But there was a lot of ice on surfaces this morning - very dangerous.
Went for a drive this afternoon with another fantastic wintry sunset and dusk, magical winter colours and shadows to everything. There was some snow on the Campsies, plenty of icy slushy deposits on the roads. The Queen's View had a
[b]December outlook [/b]
The following forecast is based on the latest stratospheric output, MJO, CFS, AO and NAO ensembles means, as well as 500hpa and 850hpa means.
[b]Stratospheric outlook[/b]
Stratospheric temperatures at both the 10hpa and 30hpa level are set to increase, as shown on the following diagrams. This should strain the vortex and encourage blocking.
[attachment=146385:ECM current temp. conditions.gif][attachment=146388:ECM T240 temp. conditions.gif]
The GFS also indica
[u][b][u]DECEMBER[/u][/b][/u]...quite cold, changeable with periods strongly influenced by low pressure but there should be some quiet and settled spells at times. Some periods of partciulary wet weather and at times quite windy and there could be a few storms. Temperatures 0.5 below to 0.25 above the average. CET 4.3C. Rainfall 90% in the north and west and 70-80% in the south and east. A good deal of hill snow in the highlands and some wintry weather at times . Sunshine 0-5% above average.
[center]Updated summary below and in the comments - Last Updated 9th February 2013.[/center]
[center][size=5]2012 - 2013 Winter Forecast[/size][/center]
[center]Written By Sean Macdonald aka on NW weathermaster[/center]
[center][b]How the forecast has been made[/b][/center]
I've used the CFS monthly mean maps that pick up long range trends for the upcoming months. But I have also used a program called ''Climate Simulator'' to help back up my forecast in certain area's. I used the p
Well it looks like winter proper has arrived up here in Shetland. Much colder than it has been of late and also a bit more settled. Over the next few days I'm expecting to see night frosts and some light wintry showers. Sunday is looking like there might be a bit more in the way of wintry showers around and generally, the beginning of December is looking cold, with just the odd milder interlude.
That said, it's pretty much what you would expect for the time of year, particularly up here, alth
[b]Note: Next update either on Thursday or Sunday/Monday. All images below will/have change/d as they have only been hyper-linked, will attach them on the next update [/b]
Thought it would be fun to have a go at a little longer range forecasting. I am by no means expert, however have learnt bits and bobs over last few years of my net-weather membership!
I shall be basing my thoughts on the stratospheric output, MJO forecasts, long range ensemble forecasts and CFS weekly charts. Instead of
[b]Headline: Wet start , turning cold later, snow possible next weekend[/b]
An exceptionally wet week with flooding in many areas. Warwickshire having an inch of rain on Wednesday flooding the Avon and other rivers, while it was west Wales turn for floods on Thursday, Llanwnnen getting 30mm. Another deluge in the past 24 hours, Coventry has just had it wettest November day in the 120 year record, and Llanwnnen and most of west Wales picked up another inch! Total rain fall figures for the past
[b]Alps / Europe Past week [/b]
Over the past week, the pattern has been very similar , with low pressure around the UK, which has given the very wet weather and flooding, High Pressure to the East, with the Alps being mostly mild with generally southerly winds.
[url="http://www.snow-forecast.com/overviews/tips_full"]http://www.snow-fore...views/tips_full[/url] At this stage, the main resorts being features are the glaciers so the mild weather does not have the impact lower down the slopes.
[b]Headline: Unsettled, rain and strong winds at times; average to mild temperatures[/b]
Most places reached 13 or 14c mid week, well above the mid November average (10c). Llanwnnen saw the highest reading of the month (13c) on Tuesday afternoon soon followed by the lowest (-1.6c) on Thursday morning. This was due to the importation of less mild Continental air late on Wednesday bringing clearing skies which caused all the fog and local frost on Thursday. It was notable how thick was the fog
Well it’s that time of year again when I, and what seems like half the world, publish their thoughts on the coming winter. Many of us have already had a taste of winter, with fairly significant snow down the east coast, away from the now famous snow shadow here in central eastern Scotland. The northern hemispheric pressure patterns that delivered that snowfall and which have been showing up for some time now consistently on the models has borne a striking resemblance to those of 09/10 and earl
