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Wednesday 8th June

A major disappointment. Now up to Bust No.24. No.21: Sunday 5th June: Failed forecast of scattered thundery showers. One large cell near Wellington, Somerset. No.22: Monday 6th June: Failed forecast of scattered thundery showers for local area. Widespread and intense activity over west again, Ireland and Irish sea. No.23: Tuesday 7th June: MAJOR DISAPPOINTMENT AND LET-DOWN. The last two entries were mildly annoying - today's bust has been the most infuriating event for many years. This could have been the chance to get a major thunderstorm in Guildford. Usual story - storms over the South Coast, Brighton as usual, more develop inland, to the East of Guildford again, typically just too far away to hear the thunder before they are shunted away east. Newsworthy weather for London, again, like the annoyances on 9th June 1992 and 3rd August 2002, to name two, when Guildford misses out by a small margin yet again. This eastward shunting of storms developing just to the east of my locality is sickeningly annoying as this is what made up the entire summer last year. 2016 is another dreadful year for storms and the deprivation and frustration of seeing others gloating IMBY posts is infuriating. NO storms club is no good as that is just inane light hearted banter and does not cater for the seriously deprived and frustrated amateur observer who is stuck in his / her home town due to work commitments and being unable to drive to chase.  Also very annoying to have the zonal garbage back at the weekend resulting in more rain in useless and annoying small quantities which will no doubt coincide with outdoor activities like cycling - something to work off the anger after days like Tuesday 7th and Wednesday 8th June. After having to wait for 6 hr from the onset of the London storms - there was SLIGHT thunder at 7:32 pm to 7:48 pm (8 quiet rumbles) resulting in a cycle storm chase to a quieter area away from the incessant traffic. This storm just died off  as it moved S.E.wards. One more quiet rumble at 11:54 pm from cell to north. NO RAIN FELL LOCALLY during this time but colleague cycling home from work got caught in downpour to east of Guildford at 11;30 pm and he estimated 6~8 mm rain fell. There was also a good storm just west of Fleet, Hants where I originally lived.     No.24: Wednesday 8th June: Usual story, usual areas get the storms. London, west midlands and Birmingham. Hopeful build up of Cu and Cb to N.E. after 3 pm. This leads to irritating drizzle shower and no thunder. Only thunder today was 4 quiet rumbles at 12:37 am to 12:50 am probably to the north.  Possibly a more useful way to measure thunder would be in estimated discharges through the months / year rather than days on which thunder was heard - last year had 6 days all with quiet thunder and <10 discharges on each. So far, the 2016 count is 3 days but this includes a total of 14 quiet rumbles and no close discharges. The average number of thunder days in Guildford (1992~2011) was 16 days. Not at all happy about zonal dross returning and probably have to wait well into July before another stab at any decent weather. Funny (not) how no surprise thunder events ever develop in situations conducive to such development, or have had a past good history but failing to deliver nowadays, yet other locations seem to do OK. What has Guildford done to deserve all this brain-numbing boring dross all the time? The lack of activity is hardly in compensation for an active period as we suffered the awful years in 2009 (6 days), 2010 (4 days) and 2011 (5 days), which had few but better storms than anything in 2015 and 2016 so far. 2012 (12 days) and 2013 (12 days) also lacked any decent events locally and the thunder in those years was 'single clap wonders' or 'cloud farts'. Only 2014 has been a decent year (20 days) and even then Guildford only really saw 3-4 impressive events, the others being 'slight', GOne are the dasy when thunder was recorded on 5 or 6 days in a month, often 2 or 3 months consecutively such as in the summers of 1982 and 1983. Now those were truly great vintage years, the latter with a good summer too, and also after decetn winters with snow.  Feeling VERY DISGRUNTLED at present - how I wish I could just up and leave and go to America and get away form the stuffy UK with its extremely boring weather, ridiculous cost of living and all the infuriating unfair political issues (now don't get me started on the 'I' word - just suffice to say, if we import all that 'stuff' from France, why can't we get French import thunderstorms surviving the channel and making landfall at Southampton - where Guildford has a chance before the ever-present eastward shunt).  

Severe Blizzard

Severe Blizzard

 

Glastonbury 2016 Festival - Blog 4 Issued 8th June 16

This is my final blog for Glastonbury 2016; however there will official forecasts appearing shortly on the Net Weather website to keep you all up to date.I will also try to contribute a little to the Glastonbury blog a little over the next few weeks. This blog will again feature the NOAA surface pressure charts and the latest ensemble forecast, and while it is still far too early to get any accurate picture, we can perhaps get an idea of the weather leading into Glastonbury. NOAA Pressure Charts   6-10 Days The trend was for low pressure to start to influence the weather over the UK; however these latest charts suggest more of a dominating pattern as opposed to an influence.   8-14 Days The trend of the last update was for Low pressure to be in charge over the UK, but there were hopes that the influence of the Low Pressure was starting to reduce, as the deepest of the low pressure moved away to the North West. However the last couple of days show the Low Pressure dominance as much as ever. As these charts now cover the period towards the start of the festival, this is starting to look a little ominous.   Ensembles Pressure   There is solid agreement in things turning very unsettled into next week and if the Glastonbury festival opened its doors next week, it would most likely be a soggy affair. However is set to rise back to around 1020mb by the start of the festival, so perhaps things turning a little better.   Rainfall Into next week, and rainfall amounts are set to rise as mentioned above. As we move towards the Glastonbury festival, things turning a little drier and although not completely dry. Temps The trend is far temps to fall next week, but perhaps a slight signs of things warming up a little before the festival, but no clear pattern as of yet. Met Office http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcn4fpj2y#?fcTime=1465430400 Through the weekend (before Glastonbury festival) and into the following week the northwest is likely to see much of any further rain, with the southeast expected to see drier conditions. Settled weather is most likely across north and northwestern areas through late June and early July. Southern and southeastern areas are more likely to see drier, warmer and sunnier conditions. Through the period this trend to more settled conditions is then expected to extend to most parts of the country.  Summary The theme is for things to get better closer to Glastonbury, the big question is will things get better in time for the festival, fingers crossed it will, and I hope everyone going to the festival has a great time.

J10

J10

 

Glastonbury 2016 Festival - Blog 3 Issued 5th June 16

This update concentrates on the NOAA pressure charts and the ensemble charts for the Somerset area. This will enable us to see what the current projections are to the run up to the festival. NOAA Updates Looking firstly at the 6-10 day outlook we can see the High Pressure scenario initially favoured being slowly edged away to the North and East, however without the Low Pressure starting to dominate as the longer term (8-14 day) outlooks would have suggested. Next onto the 8-14 outlooks, this continues the theme of turning unsettled from the South West, and by the 2nd June run (covering 10-16th June) has low pressure over the UK. However the latest run (4th June covering – 12th to 18th June) although still having low pressure around the UK, moves the centre of the low pressure away to the North West. With more a NW flow over the UK rather than a SW flow. So a trend to a slight improvement and possibly reverting back to something a little more settled before Glastonbury starts. Ensemble Runs Pressure The ensembles tend to suggest pressure dropping over the next week to average 1005mb, but then tending to rise close to 1015mb by around the 21st June.   Precipitation All runs show some precipitation for Somerset for much of the 2 weeks running up to the festival, some runs show some heavy rain at times, but most go for moderate rain at worst. Temperatures Currently the 850Hpa temps are around +10c, which are giving temps above 20c, over the next week or so these are set to fall back to +5c at 850Hpa, with maybe a slight increase before the festival. Met Office http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/area/south_west_england Looking rather unsettled for the mid part of June, but with some drier sunnier periods between the spells of rain. Into late June and early July, Turning generally drier, warmer and sunnier to the south and east, although still with a risk of some rain or showers at times. Temperatures improving over the period,so mild to warm. Summary If the Glastonbury festival was due to start a week earlier, I might be a little concerned for the festival weather, however the weather is set to improve towards the end of June, but will this come before or even during the festival period. My guess at this stage would be for a getting better sort of festival, with a better weekend than the runup. But if last year is anything to go by, things will frequently change before then.

J10

J10

 

Glastonbury 2016 Festival - Blog 2

This is the second blog for Glastonbury 2016. This will be largely concentrated on the NOAA charts over the past few days. Unfortunately they still do not run all the way to the start of the festival, but the longer term runs, now go up to 15th June,so about a week before the door opens. So perhaps we can start to see trends emerging. I will also look at the ensembles which now start to cover the start of the festival, a massive caveat in that these tend to change widely over time. 6-10 days These charts show the current general High Pressure pattern remaining in control, with winds perhaps turning more to the South East, warming things up a little. 8-14 days These charts are showing a slightly different picture, with the High Pressure being replaced by low pressure edging in from the South West turning things somewhat unsettled. Met Office UK Outlook for Thursday 16 Jun 2016 to Thursday 30 Jun 2016: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/area/south_west_england (Link) This suggests starting unsettled more especially for Southern and Western parts of the UK, presumably due to the lower pressure here, which ties in with the themes above. However it then suggests that while the overall weather remains rather mixed, but the best of the drier and brighter weather towards the south of the UK, where it will be warmer, this is quite positive for the Glastonbury festival period. Ian's Monthly Outlook Ian has done his regular excellent monthly forecast and it is well worth a read, the general theme is quite similar, but some differences in timings. (link below) http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=monthly;sess= Ensembles (GFS) These largely go with the theme of largely settled for the next week, turning unsettled for the following week, but again what follows? Outlook These charts of course can change, and indeed they did flip around somewhat last year but the general trend is for more unsettled conditions around a  week before the festival, and if this transpires, will they revert back to something a little drier before the festival. The next update over the weekend might give some clues.

J10

J10

 

Glastonbury 2016 Festival - Blog 1

Here is the first initial blog for the Glastonbury festival 2016. This will take the form of information from a number of sources. Of course this far out, it is very much an indicative look at best, and there will be many ups and downs to the forecasts. CFS Long Term – (Net Weather) The past two weeks of these runs have been attached. In each case the pattern from left to right is June forecast (23 May)                                    June forecast (29 May)                               July forecast (23 May)                                  July forecast (23 May) Precipitation June Rainfall generally around average, with July rainfall slightly above average. Temperatures June temps rising from slightly above average to above average. July temps stay at slightly above average. Pressure June Pressure slightly above average, more especially for Northern areas. July Pressure better in the south in the latest run. CFS (Meteociel) As ever there is a mix, but the general theme is for pressure to be slightly above average for both June and July, temps are set to be around or slightly above average. Rainfall is set to be below average for June, but for July the theme is for rainfall to be around average. Met Office and NOAA 6-10 day                                                         8-14 days These both tend to agree with the general theme of High Pressure for the UK for the start of June.   However this is centred towards the north of the UK. However as we move later into June, there are signs of lower pressure edging into the South West of the UK. Overall Quite a decent start to the forecasts, but still a very long time to go. The next update will be mid week probably Wednesday, and will tend to  focus more on teh NOAA forecasts as per above.

J10

J10

 

May - Continued lack of activity

May has yielded NO thunder (or even any distant lightning) in Guildford. There have been 20 'busts' in 2016 now - a truly horrendous figure. Getting thoroughly bored writing about missing out on thunderstorms while seeing the usual areas enjoying another 'good' convective and thundery year. Can't believe that the sum total of two 'good' convective months, April and May, can only deal out two rumbles locally (26th April) and one of those two months is completely thunder-free, again. After this so-called thundery and convectionally active spring, there will be a compensatory quiet boring summer - so Guildford area has to suffer yet more boredom having missed out on the only chances early in the season. I have never seen such protracted dreadful lacking conditions and after such an awful year last year as well.     At the end of the season, I will publish my Excel spreadsheet showing the true extent and detail of this let-down year.

Severe Blizzard

Severe Blizzard

 

Thursday 28th April: Bust No.9

Frontal system crossing UK was supposed to bring heavy rainfall and was NOT supposed to be thundery. S.E. gets massive downgrade with barely any rain while there was an unpleasant gusty wind instead. Meanwhile, parts of the Midlands including Bolton, Lancashire saw big upgrade with outbreak of thunderstorms along the cold front - this was a surprise and not forecast. Cannot remember when there was last such a surprise here in Guildford, possibly 28th July 2014!   Firmly get the impression that nothing really interesting ever happens in this part of southern England these days - the North seem to have all the excitement and decent weather with high pressure areas bringing sunshine and pleasant temperatures while the south gets the gloom, wind and crummy temperatures as during March's anticyclonic period. North seem to get all the thunderstorms irrespective of the time of year, snow in decent quantities, forecasts of interesting events which verify, few downgrades, surprise extra interesting events, more sunshine and more interesting temperature variation. Us, in the south get the complete opposite. The period from October 2014 to present is the worst 18 months for missing out on interesting events and suffering cack and dross I have ever had my misfortune to suffer, centring on that pathetic excuse for a year 2015 and its horrendous joke of a winter followed by even nastier summer and that truly vile November of incessant wind and drizzle.       Forecast for the next few days was for a continued chance (usually about 30~35%) of thunder and interesting showery conditions. Now it has been downgraded to barely any rainfall, very little thunder chance and more wind. What is the chance that this downgrade forecast is the one that will verify? Additionally, I go on holiday to Cornwall soon - what's the betting that it will be back to zonal dross and crap drizzle filth just for the week I am there, while in the S.E. there is a heatwave and plume for one day which brings the thunder event of a lifetime and I bl***y miss it, like the 14th June 2014 miraculous 4 hour thunderstorm in an anticyclonic northerly. This had been forecast 5 days previously and looked very unlikely to verify - when it did, it was considerably more severe than the forecast event. 

Severe Blizzard

Severe Blizzard

 

Tuesday 26th April: Partial success.

Thunder heard at 4:31 pm from cell to N.E. giving heavy soft hail shower over Ripley at this time. Further rumble at 4:37 pm. First thunder heard for exactly 8 months, previous being 26th August 2015. Good to finally have our first event of the year, although it was not from an overhead source. There had been moderate soft hail showers at 3:43 pm and another at 7:30 pm (Guildford).

Severe Blizzard

Severe Blizzard

 

Bust No.8 - Thursday 14th April

More thundery showers in the south midlands, including Cambridgeshire areas and parts of East Anglia.  Thundery showers were supposed to also affect areas to the south such as Surrey. Also annoying that thunder risk over all the next few days has been downgraded for Guildford area - no doubt this will verify as nothing thundery or snow-related ever upgrades for this location. Meanwhile, another hard-earned day off (Friday 15th) to be ruined by the usual drizzle and light rain dross with another gutless depression over southern England that will be electrically inactive with no surprises thrown in - well not here or at Fleet where I will be visiting.

Severe Blizzard

Severe Blizzard

 

Bust No.7 - Wednesday 13th April

Convergence line develops over area just to the south of Guildford with hopeful darkening of sky to S.S.W. at 1700. Light shower of large droplets at 1718~1730. Cu develop overhead and to north after 1730 and evident heavy shower to north and N.E. to at least 1900. Rainfall radar showed sferics only 4 miles from home. No thunder actually heard.  Also, quite good thunderstorm evident over Canterbury earlier in afternoon and the usual traditional areas that 'do well' (Peterborough and parts of East Anglia) enjoy another thunder event during evening. I am well aware that favoured spots in the UK will get more thunder than my local area but it's constantly getting nothing while certain areas are favoured over and over again that has made the last 18 months some of the most uninteresting and predictably boring weather I have ever had my misfortune to suffer.

Severe Blizzard

Severe Blizzard

 

Thursday 7th & Tuesday 12th April - 2 more busts

Bust No.5; Thursday 7th April: Morning drizzle finally gave way to decent convection after 1500. There was an impressive heavy shower at 1635~1650 giving ice pellets at 1640 and slightly larger 4~5 mm hail at 1642~1647. An impressive shower and so close to getting that elusive thunder - expecting a flash and bang during the most intense part of the rain and hail mix. Some sferics observed to the north and east including the Twickenham area and, earlier to the N.W. over Reading and Berkshire.   Bust No.6; Tuesday 12th April: Thundery shower risk was quite high according to forecast. Unexpected thunder activity in Cholsey and Pangbourne area at 1245~1315 according to reports. Just typical that I was passing through this area by train exactly 24 hours earlier. Sunny periods and dry throughout at Guildford.  Guildford still waits for its first thunder of the year where 26th August 2015's pathetic distant muffled rumble was the last occasion thunder was heard here. Makes me wonder if there will be any thunder event this year when decent situations cannot deliver and it will no doubt be back to more zonality soon ushering in another dreadful summer. 

Severe Blizzard

Severe Blizzard

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 8 April 2016

Synoptic Summary and Current Conditions We are moving into the final parts of the skiing season, with many lower resorts starting to close down for the year and there were some very warm temperatures last week.
However there is still some good skiing conditions on upper slopes, with decent snow totals from heavy snowfalls past the New Year and a top up in some resorts in recent days. The weather pattern for the weekend sees low pressure to the South East of the Alps, with South Westerly winds over the Alps. During the course of next week, the pressure slowly builds to the South East of the Alps, however winds generally from the South West, and turning milder towards the end of next week. Alps Detail Saturday - Winds from the South West, coldest to the North and West, Mildest South and East
850Hpa temps +0c to +3c (French Alps, N Switzerland, N Austria, S Germany and Liechtenstein) FL 1400m to 2000m
850Hpa temps +4c to +7c (S Switzerland, Central and Southern Austria, Italy) FL 1800m to 2400m Sunday - Winds from the South East, coldest to the North and West, Mildest South and West
850Hpa temps +2c to +4c (French Alps, N Switzerland, N Austria, S Germany) FL 1800m to 2000m
850Hpa temps +4c to +7c (Switzerland, Central and Southern Austria, Italy and Liechtenstein) FL 2000m to 2500m Monday - Winds from the South West, milder generally
850Hpa temps +7c to +13c (generally) FL 2200m to 2600m (West) 2400m to 3400m (East) Tuesday - Winds from the South West, milder generally
850Hpa temps +7c to +11c (generally) FL 2200m to 2600m (generally) Wednesday – Winds generally from the West to North west, colder for a time in the West
850Hpa temps +3c to +7c and FL 2000m to 2400m (West)
850Hpa temps +8c to +13c and FL 2600m to 3200m (rest of Switzerland, Northern Italy and S Austria) Thursday - Winds from the South West, milder generally
850Hpa temps +7c to +13c (generally) FL 2200m to 2800m (generally) Friday – Winds from the South West, even milder
850Hpa temps +9c to +14c (generally) FL 2900m to 3200m (West) 3200m to 3500m (East) Precipitation
Saturday looks rather unsettled with some heavy showers, more especially for southern parts of the Alps. Snow generally above 2000m. Drier Sunday before more showers edge from the west Monday afternoon, lasting well in the evening. Snow generally above 2200m. Tuesday again drier, before an area of low pressure is set to move North Eastwards across the Alps during Wednesday, perhaps 20cm of snow possible above 2000-2200m. Looking largely dry for the rest of the week. Summary and Outlook
Spring conditions set to continue this week, However with some snow possible of the higher slopes, generally above 2000-2200m.
Quite mild at times, but generally not excessively mild for April, however possibly turning very mild just before next weekend.
       

J10

J10

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 1 April 2016

Synoptic Summary and Current Conditions
Snow conditions are starting to reflect that we are now in April, with spring snow conditions becoming more widespread, however good skiing conditions remain on the higher slopes (as ever). Charts – Weekend
High Pressure starting to build over Eastern Europe, with winds from a South to South Easterly direction bringing some very warm air up from Northern Africa. With general low pressure, some moderate precipitation, mostly rain is possible. Charts – Monday and Tuesday
Staying mild or very mild for the start of the next week and remaining unsettled with further moderate precipitation likely. Charts – Wednesday to Friday
Turning much colder from the West to North West, with a Polar Maritime airflow developing, remaining unsettled with a greater chance of snow.   Alps Detail
Saturday – Very mild winds from the South to South East
850Hpa temps +8c to +13c (generally) +2c to +5c (Eastern Austria) FL 2800m to 3400m (across the Alps) Sunday - Very mild winds from the South to South West
850Hpa temps +8c to +14c (generally) FL 2500m to 3000m (South and Western Alps) and 3200m to 3500m (Germany and Austria)

Monday - Winds generally from the West to South West
850Hpa temps +5c to +13c (generally) FL 2400m to 3000m (generally) Tuesday - Winds generally from the West to South West, slightly cooler from the west
850Hpa temps +6c to +12c and FL 2400m to 2700m (SW Germany, Switzerland, France, NW Italy)
850Hpa temps +10c to +13c and FL 2600m to 3200m (SE Germany, Austria, NE Italy, Liechtenstein) Wednesday – Winds generally from the North East, colder again from the North West
850Hpa temps +1c to +4c and FL 1600m to 2000m (French Alps, N Switzerland, Germany, N Austria)
850Hpa temps +4c to +12c and FL 2000m to 2800m (rest of Switzerland, Northern Italy and S Austria) Thursday – Winds generally from the North East, colder again from the North West
850Hpa temps -3c to +1c and FL 1000m to 1600m (West French Alps, N Switzerland, Germany, Far N Austria)
850Hpa temps +2c to +9c and FL 1600m to 2400m (East French Alps, rest of Switzerland and Austria, Northern Italy and S Austria) Friday – Winds generally from the North East
850Hpa temps -1c to +1c and FL 1000m to 1600m (Generally)
850Hpa temps +1c to +4c and FL 1400m to 1800m (S Switzerland, NW Italy, SW Austria) Precipitation
Weekend - Dry for the east of the Alps over the weekend, with some showers in the far South West on the Alps on East on Saturday. The showers developing a bit more widespread in the west later on Sunday, Snow above 2500m or so. Monday - Tuesday - Staying dry over the East of the Alps, further showers or longer periods of precipitation for the Western Alps at times, Snow again limited to above 2500m. Wednesday - Friday - Fronts edging in from the North West and crossing the Alps towards the end of week, on Wednesday snow about 2000m. However for Thursday and Friday, snow levels closer to 1000m-1200m with the chance of appreciable snow totals. Outlook - For the weekend and the start the next week, some very mild weather with some heavy rain likely in western Alps and some very warm sunshine for the Eastern Alps, sunscreen is a must. This is likely to severely impact the slopes especially lower down, however towards the end of the week, turning colder again with some fresh slopes down to medium slopes.

J10

J10

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 25 March 2016

Synoptic Summary and Current Conditions
Snow conditions remain generally good or very good across the Alps. Snow over Austria in recent days has improved the conditions here. Elsewhere there has been a lack of snow generally for the past week and on piste the conditions remain very good. However off piste conditions are worsening and some fresh powder is desired.
With temperatures dropping over recent days, spring snow has also been less of a problem. Charts - Saturday to Monday
For the weekend, low pressure moving the over the UK and into North Western Europe will try to edge South Westerly winds and unsettled weather over the Alps. For Saturday, it should remain mostly settled over the Alps as High Pressure hangs on. For Sunday and into next week, the fronts start to edge in over the Alps form the North West, bringing some moderate precipitation along with fluctuating temperatures.    Charts – Tuesday and Wednesday
By midweek, the flow turns more to a westerly with further mostly showery precipitation with 850Hpa temps generally above freezing, the precipitation concentrated in Northern and Western areas. Charts – Thursday and Friday
Towards the weekend low pressure to the south may introduce southerly winds with the risk of some very mild air, but this is a long way away at present. Alps Detail
Saturday – Winds from the South to South West, Turning milder from the West
850Hpa temps +2c to +8c and FL 1800m to 2400m (France, Switzerland, Northern Italy, Liechtenstein, SW Germany, Western Austria)
850Hpa temps -1c to +2c and FL 1400m to 1800m (SE Germany, Northern and Eastern Austria) Sunday - Winds generally from the South to South West, Turning colder from the North West
850Hpa temps -1c to +2c and FL 1400m to 1800m  (W France Alps, N and W Switzerland, Liechtenstein, SW Germany)
850Hpa temps +1c to +5c and FL 1800m to 2400m (Austria, S and E Switzerland, Northern Italy, E France Alps)

Monday - Winds generally from the West to South West
850Hpa temps +3c to +7c and FL 1900m to 2200m (generally)
850Hpa temps +1c to +3c and FL 1700m to 1900m (Far SE areas - SE Austria, NE Italy, and Far NW areas, NW Switzerland, Far SW Germany) Tuesday - Winds generally from the West, Low Pressure over the South of the Alps and milder here
850Hpa temps 0c to +2c and FL 1400m to 1800m (Southern Germany, N Switzerland, Liechtenstein, N and E Austria)
850Hpa temps +2c to +6c and FL 1800m to 2200m (S and W Austria, S Switzerland, Italy, France Alps) Wednesday – Winds generally from the West to South West, as Low peruse moves east over north pars of the Alps.
850Hpa temps 0c to +3c and FL 1400m to 2000m (N and W Switzerland, SW Germany)
850Hpa temps +4c to +8c and FL 2200m to 2600m (French Alps, rest of Switzerland,. SE Germany, Northern Italy and FL 2600m to 3000m ( Far east Austria) Thursday – Low Pressure over the Alps, much milder from the South
850Hpa temps +4c to +8c and FL 2400m to 2800m (generally) Friday – Huge uncertainty with GFS model runs varying 850HPa temps by as much as 15c for some parts of Austria, however more consistently showing looking milder weather to the south. Precipitation – A succession of fronts are set to move in this week from the west, most are cold fronts, with snow to quite low levels at times, especially to start the week. Weekend - Precipitation for Austria is expected to continue through Saturday morning, before decaying slowly during the afternoon, snow initially above 1000m, perhaps 1200m later. A cold front from the North West slowly edging east during Sunday, reaching central areas overnight before decaying in Austria Monday, Snow generally 1200-1400m on the front, but higher on the front edge of the front and over Italy, 1600-1800m here. Monday - Early Next Week
Later on Monday, the next front edges in from the west for Western parts of the Alps, with snow restricted above 1600m-1800m for daytime and evening. However as colder air pushes in from the west, snow levels falling back to around 1200-1400m overnight and into the morning, with a few more hours of precipitation for western areas, before it moves to Austria by early morning. Showers for Tuesday afternoon over Southern parts of the Alps with snow levels back up to close to 1800-2000m.Further showers seem likely on Wednesday, with snow above 2000m, there is a chance of frontal precipitation from the NW later with snow to 1400-1600m, but uncertainty as to its location. In terms of snow amounts, 25-50cm of snow are possible in places, above 1750-2000m, below 1500m though and the snow/rain mix is always likely to change. Outlook - So in summary a messy week, conditions look pretty good for Easter Weekend, with generally good snow conditions. For the first part of next week, a succession of fronts from the west will bring precipitation with snow likely above 1750-2000m and to lower levels at times.
Towards the weekend, perhaps turning very much milder from the south, but a lot of uncertainty.

J10

J10

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 18 March 2016

Synoptic Summary and Current Conditions
For this weekend there is High Pressure centred over the UK, the Alps on the South Eastern flank of the High Pressure, with a E to NE breeze and cool conditions for the Alps, also mostly settled. Charts - Saturday to Tuesday
The High pressure slowly edging away to the west, into the start of next week, allowing lower pressure to edge in for the South East, wins still from the East to North East.
Charts - Wednesday to Friday
Towards the weekend, the low pressure edging away to the east, with the Alps largely in-between weather systems. Alps Detail Saturday – Winds generally from the East, low pressure over the Southern Alps.
850Hpa temps -4c to +2c and FL 1000m to 1800m (South Eastern Germany, E Austria)
850Hpa temps +2c to +6c and FL 1800m to 2200m (W Austria, Switzerland, Italy, France Alps, SW Germany and Liechtenstein) Sunday - Winds generally from the North East, cooler from the north
850Hpa temps -2c to +2c and FL 1200m to 1800m (Southern Germany, N Austria)
850Hpa temps +2c to +6c and FL 1800m to 2000m (S Austria, Switzerland, Italy, France Alps) Monday - Winds generally from the East, cooler from the north
850Hpa temps -3c to +2c and FL 1200m to 1600m (Southern Germany, N Switzerland, N Austria and Liechtenstein)
850Hpa temps +2c to +6c and FL 1800m to 2000m (SW Austria, S Switzerland, Italy, France Alps) Tuesday - Winds generally from the East,
850Hpa temps -2c to +1c and FL 1200m to 1400m (Southern Germany, N and Central Switzerland, most of Austria and Liechtenstein, W French Alps)
850Hpa temps +1c to +4c and FL 1600m to 2000m (SW Austria, S Switzerland, Italy, E France Alps) Wednesday – Winds generally from the East,
850Hpa temps -4c to 0c and FL 1100m to 1400m (Southern Germany, N and Central Switzerland, most of Austria and Liechtenstein, W French Alps)
850Hpa temps 0c to +4c and FL 1400m to 1800m (SW Austria, S Switzerland, Italy, E France Alps) Thursday - Winds generally from the East,
850Hpa temps -4c to +2c and FL 800m to 1400m (Southern Germany, N and Central Switzerland, most of Austria and Liechtenstein, W French Alps)
850Hpa temps 0c to +4c and FL 1600m to 2000m (SW Austria, S Switzerland, Italy, E France Alps) Friday –
850Hpa temps -1c to +2c and FL 1300m to 1800m (Southern Germany, N Switzerland, most of Austria and Liechtenstein, W French Alps)
850Hpa temps +3c to +6c and FL 1800m to 2200m (SW Austria, S Switzerland, Italy, E France Alps)   Precipitation –
Mostly dry over the weekend, perhaps a few afternoon showers for Sunday afternoon in the southern half of the Alps. Into next week and more showers starting to develop Monday afternoon, and showers continuing through to Wednesday evening, with the showers always pepping up each afternoon.
Some showers are possible anywhere, but the heaviest and more consistent showers most likely for Italy, and southern parts of both Switzerland and Austria. Snow Amounts
Snow levels 1600-1800m Monday afternoon
1200m (Northern Alps) -1600m (Southern Alps) Tuesday afternoon
1200m (Northern Alps) -1400m (Southern Alps) Wednesday afternoon
Dropping to 1000m for the evening and overnight 10-25cm of fresh snow possible above 1800m for some central and southern parts of the Alps. Summary
A definite split in the weather, coldest towards the north of the Alps, always mildest for southern parts of the Alps, with freeze thaw conditions again.
Conditions are still good or very good; however the milder weather for southern areas means that slopes will soften again in the afternoon on lower slopes. 
However fresh snow will make conditions very good into Easter for the higher slopes.  

J10

J10

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 11 March 2016

Synoptic Summary and Current Conditions There is currently an elongated High Pressure covering a narrow strip from Scandinavia running through the UK down to the Azores, with the Alps on the SE side of the High with cold/cool NE winds. Lower pressure to the  South of the Alps over parts of Italy. Conditions over the Alps are very good generally with the recent heavy snowfalls over the past month, looking a bit drier for the coming week, with more in the way of sunshine, but some showers still possible at times more especially towards the South and South East of the Alps. Charts - Saturday to Tuesday

For the weekend, the high pressure is set to move a little to be centred over Southern Scandinavia/ NW Midland Europe, before moving further north to be centred over northern UK through to Scandinavia by Tuedays, The flow is generally set to be from the East for the Alps. Lower pressure never to far away from the south, and some showers are likely to build up from time to time especially in the afternoon and for more Southern parts of the Alps. Charts - Wednesday to Friday
A similar there towards the end of the week, perhaps with the pattern becoming a little more unsettled from the south, with a little more in the way of showers towards Friday. Alps Detail
Winds generally from an Easterly direction, with the coolest weather on the whole for N and E Austria, S Germany and N/NW Switzerland, milder further SW for SW Switzerland, NW Italy, and Eastern French Alps) Saturday –
850Hpa temps -4c to -2c and FL 1000m to 1400m (Southern Germany, N Austria, N Switzerland, Liechtenstein, W France Alps)
850Hpa temps -2c to +3c and FL 1600m to 2000m (S Austria, S Switzerland, Italy, E France Alps) Sunday -
850Hpa temps -4c to -2c and FL 1000m to 1400m (Southern Germany, N and E Austria, N Switzerland, Liechtenstein, W France Alps)
850Hpa temps -2c to +3c and FL 1600m to 2000m (SW Austria, S Switzerland, Italy, E France Alps) Monday–
850Hpa temps -7c to -5c and FL 800m to 1000m (NE Austria)
850Hpa temps -6c to -2c and FL 900 to 1400m (S Germany, Liechtenstein, N Switzerland, C Austria, W France Alps)
850Hpa temps -2c to +3c and FL 1600m to 2000m (SW Austria, S Switzerland, Italy, E France Alps) Tuesday–
850Hpa temps -7c to -4c and FL 800m to 1100m (E Austria, S Germany, N Switzerland)
850Hpa temps -3c to +1c and FL 1200m to 1700m (W Austria, S Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Italy, France Alps) Wednesday –
850Hpa temps -6c to -2c and FL 800m to 1000m (E Austria, NW Switzerland, S Germany)
850Hpa temps -3c to +1c and FL 1100m to 1600m (W Austria, rest Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Italy, France Alps) Thursday -
850Hpa temps -3c to 0c and FL 1000m to 1400m (Southern Germany, N and E Austria, N Switzerland, Liechtenstein, W France Alps)
850Hpa temps -1c to +3c and FL 1400m to 2000m (SW Austria, S Switzerland, Italy, E France Alps) Friday –
850Hpa temps -5c to -2c and FL 900m to 1200m (N and E Austria, NW Switzerland, S Germany)
850Hpa temps -2c to +2c and FL 1400m to 1900m (SW Austria, S Switzerland, Italy, E France Alps) Precipitation A drier week than recently, however some showers are likely to develop at times, these most likely for Southern and Southern Eastern areas, and many of these may develop for the afternoon, after a dry sunny morning. The showers are not likely to be focussed on certain areas as per the precipitation charts, but they may well be isolated and heavy in nature, Weekend
Showers tending to develop into the afternoon on both days, more especially for Austria, snow levels 1200m midday, down by 500m, by evening. Next Week
Drier Monday perhaps more general precipitation for Western areas Tuesday into Wednesday, with afternoon showers again developing further east, snow level 1200m midday, dropping back to 500m or so evening/overnight. Showery precipitation again developing for Southern areas Thursday and Friday, some of the showers heavy and prolonged, snow levels upto 1500m midday, dropping rapidly back to 500m for evening/overnight. Snow Amounts
Some topups can be expected, but less than recently generally, perhaps 25-50cm possible in some parts of Austria. Summary A drier and sunnier week over the Alps, but recent heavy snow should mean good conditions. The overnight very low temperatures and spring sunshine , should mean freeze thaw conditions, so a little icy for the morning and slushy for the afternoon, however better conditions expected on the higher slopes, say above 1500m. But overall a good week to go skiing, but take your sun cream.

J10

J10

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 4 March 2016

Synoptic Summary and Current Conditions
The clock has ticked on and all of a sudden, we have moved into Spring, and you would think that things may start warming up. However the weather has not been that mild, whit plenty of snow above 1500m, while at lower resorts there has rain one day, and snow the next. However colder in recent days, with more general snow to lower levels. Currently there a is a cool NW flow over the Alps, with low pressure to the north of the Alps. Charts - Saturday to Tuesday
A NW flow seems likely over the weekend, but switching round to an Easterly by Monday and generally unsettled for the most part with low pressure centred over Italy. 

  Charts - Wednesday to Friday
Unsettled with easterly winds to start, but High Pressure ridging up from the South West turning things much milder by Friday. Alps Detail Saturday – Turning colder from the North West, mild to start in Austria
850Hpa temps -3c to +2c and FL 800m to 1400m (France, Switzerland, SW Germany and Italy) (temps higher in the South)
850Hpa temps  +1c to +4c and FL 1400m to 2400m (Austria, SE Germany), (temps higher to the NE) Sunday –  Colder in most areas, but still a little colder to the North
850Hpa temps -5c to -2c and FL 700m to 1100m (Germany, Liechtenstein, Switzerland, N Austria)
850Hpa temps  -1c to +1c and FL 1100m to 1400m (S Austria, Northern Italy) Monday and Tuesday –  Similar temps to Sunday, winds now from the North East
850Hpa temps -5c / -6c to -3c and FL 700m to 1000m (S Germany, Liechtenstein, Switzerland, N Austria, France)
850Hpa temps  -2c to -1c and FL 1100m to 1300m (S Austria, Northern Italy) Wednesday –  A little less cold, winds still from the North East
850Hpa temps -5c to -4c and FL 800m to 1100m (S Germany, Liechtenstein, N Switzerland, Far N Austria, W France Alps)
850Hpa temps -3c to +2c and FL 1200m to 1800m (S Switzerland, most of Austria, Italy, E France Alps) Thursday – A little colder again, winds still from the North East
850Hpa temps -4c to -2c and FL 900m to 1100m (S Germany, Liechtenstein, Northern and Central parts of both Switzerland and Austria, W France Alps)
850Hpa temps  -2c to +2c and FL 1100m to 1600m (S Austria, Northern Italy) Friday – Somewhat milder from the west, as a Tropical Maritime airmass approaches
850Hpa temps -2c to +2c and FL 1200m to 1800m (S Germany, Liechtenstein, Austria, Northern Switzerland, NE Italy) (coldest over Austria)
850Hpa temps  +2c to +7c and FL 1800m to 2200m (S Switzerland, French Alps, N and NW Italy) Precipitation Weekend Heavy precipitation moving Eastwards across the Alps during Saturday, with the heaviest of the precipitation towards the south of the Alps. Snow level never above 1200m, and dropping to around 600m by Sunday morning. Further precipitation on Sunday, more especially for eastern areas, Snow levels riding to 800m (North) 1000m in (south) midday dropping back to circa 400m-600m by evening. Monday and Tuesday Further precipitation continuing through much of Monday and Tuesday for the Alps, with snow levels never above 1000m, and closer to 500-600m overnight. Wednesday to Friday Turning a bit drier fro a time midweek, with precipitation edging in from the west on Friday, with snow to 1600m-1800m. Snow amounts Charts from snow-forecast.com Quite widely over 50cm for Southern parts of the Alps over the next 72 hours above 1500m, with 75cm-1m in some parts, with up to 75cm, possible above 1000m.
A further 25-50cm possible over parts of the Alps for the following 3 days, this time with Central areas receiving more. Less snow expected to North Eastern areas, with 10-20cm more likely here this week. Summary
Another snowy start for the Alps this week, with snow to quite low levels, drier for a time midweek, before perhaps a little milder towards next weekend.

J10

J10

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 27 February 2016

Synoptic Summary and Current Conditions As we come to the end of the "winter" season, probably some of the best condition of the season for the Alps. Looking ahead another mixed week in prospect, mostly unsettled with all parts seeing some fresh snow at times but with fluctuating freezing levels, not for the first time. Charts - Saturday to Tuesday Low Pressure Centred over Northern Spain edging east into Northern Italy, keeping things very unsettled over the Alps, especially the Southern Alps. This only very slowly moves NEwards to clear the Alps late Monday. Turning briefly settled with a Ridge of High pressure for Tuesday.

Charts - Wednesday to Friday
North Western winds setting in and as as low pressure dives SE over Northern Europe, turning rather unsettled towards the weekend. Alps Detail Saturday – Turning milder as winds edge from the South / South East
850Hpa temps -5c to -3c and FL 800m to 1000m (Eastern Austria and far SW Germany)
850Hpa temps  0c to +4c and FL 1400m to 2000m (Western Austria, and the rest of the Alps) Sunday –  Turning milder as winds edge from the South / South East
850Hpa temps -1c to +1c and FL 1000m to 1600m (NW Switzerland and SW Germany)
850Hpa temps +2c to +5c and FL 1800m to 2200m (Italy, Austria, most of Germany, Germany, France, S and E Switzerland ) Monday – Colder from the North East, for Western areas
850Hpa temps -4c to -1c and FL 800m to 1200m (N Switzerland and SW and Central Southern Germany)
850Hpa temps -1c to +3c and FL 1200m to 1800m (Italy, Austria, SE Germany, Germany, France, S Switzerland)

Tuesday –
850Hpa temps -5c to -2c and FL 600m to 1200m (S Germany, Northern and Central Austria, N Switzerland)
850Hpa temps -2c to +2c and FL 1200m to 1800m (S Switzerland and NW Italy) Wednesday – Turning colder later in the day with North West winds
850Hpa temps -2c to +2c and FL 1000m to 1400m (S Germany, Northern and Central Austria, N Switzerland)
850Hpa temps +2c to +5c and FL 1800m to 2200m (S Switzerland, S Austria and Italy) Thursday – Easterly winds, cold to the North a little milder to the south
850Hpa temps -4c (N) to -1c (S) and FL 800m (N) to 1400m (S) Friday – Winds from the West to South West
850Hpa temps  0c to +2c and FL 1400m to 1600m (generally) Precipitation Weekend
A very wet weekend for Northern Italy, this fringing Southern parts of Switzerland and SW Austria at times, but otherwise mostly dry for the Alps. Snow levels forecast to be 1200m to start the weekend, rising to 1600m for Sunday. Early Next Week
The precipitation moving Northwards on Monday with some heavy bursts possible, but staying dry in the far west. The precipitation seems likely to be concentrated in Austria for Tuesday , and even here fading later in the day. Snow levels 1200m-1400m Monday daytime, falling to 600m Monday late evening, overnight and into Tuesday. Middle to End of Week
Precipitation edging in from the NW early Wednesday to give spells of wet weather for the Alps, most of the precipitation for NW parts of the Alps.
Snow Levels variable generally around 1000-1200m daytime, briefly 2000m Southern areas Wednesday, 600m-800m overnight. Summary
Another mixed week for the Alps, some heavy snowfalls possible for the higher slopes, but again with the risk of some rain at lower levels at times.

J10

J10

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 20 February 2016

Synoptic Summary and Current Conditions The conditions over the Alps over the past week have been the best over the Alps generally for this season, with good snow cover and fresh snow over many resorts. Currently looking rather mild over the Alps with winds for a westerly direction. Charts - Saturday to Tuesday A rather tricky position to gauge the Alps weather for this forthcoming week, it is set to tune much colder over much of North Europe, but current models suggest that it should remain milder for the Alps at least to start the week. Charts - Wednesday to Friday The same split in the weather between the colder weather to the north and the milder weather to the south. it does seems likely that it will turn colder from the north, with the models below, probably on the milder side of the models, in comparison ECM has it colder generally towards the weekend. As a result there is a lot of uncertainty as to where the dividing line will be. Alps Detail Saturday – A quite mild Westerly flow, remaining cooler in East
850Hpa temps -4c to -1c and FL 800m to 1200m (Austria and Eastern Alps)
850Hpa temps -1c to +4c and FL 1500m to 2100m (France, Switzerland and Western Alps) Sunday –  Much milder for all parts
850Hpa temps +3c to +4c and FL 2200m to 2400m (Germany and Northern parts of Austria)
850Hpa temps +4c to +7c and FL 2400m to 3000m (France, Italy and Southern parts of Austria and Switzerland) Monday – Mild with Westerly winds and a Tropical Maritime airmass
850Hpa temps +4c to +7c (generally, +2c to +4c locally) and FL 2800m to 3200m (France, Tuesday – Turning colder from the North West
850Hpa temps 0c to +3c and FL 1400m to 2000m (Germany, Austria, most of Switzerland and France)
850Hpa temps +4c to +6c and FL 1800m to 2200m (S Switzerland and NW Italy) Wednesday – Easterly winds, mild to the south, cold to the North
850Hpa temps -4c to -2c and FL 600m to 1000m (Northern parts of Austria and Switzerland, Southern Germany)
850Hpa temps -3c to +1c and FL 1400m to 1800m (Central Austria and Switzerland)
850Hpa temps +2c to +6c and FL 2000m to 2400m (Southern Austria and Switzerland, Italy) Thursday – Easterly winds, mild to the south, cold to the North
850Hpa temps -6c to -3c and FL 600m to 1000m (Northern parts of Austria and Switzerland, Southern Germany)
850Hpa temps -2c to +2c and FL 1200m to 1800m (Central Austria and Switzerland)
850Hpa temps +2c to +4c and FL 1600m to 2200m (Southern Austria and Switzerland, Italy) Friday – Winds from a general Easterly direction
850Hpa temps -4c to -2c and FL 600m to 1000m (Northern parts of Austria and Switzerland, Southern Germany)
850Hpa temps -2c to +2c and FL 1400m to 2000m (Central and Southern Austria and Switzerland, Italy) Precipitation
Some heavy precipitation seem likely over the Alps, over this weekend, with milder weather spreading in it seems that snow will be reserved to over 1800m, with over 20cm of snow possible. Thereafter apart from some patchy precipitation for Monday. It does seem likely that further precipitation seem likely from around Wednesday, with snow down to lower levels, possibly 1200m-1500m but this is very uncertain, depending on how far south the cold weather pushes. Snowfall
Snowfall totals 20mm possible over 2000m this weekend. Snowfall totals over 25cm possible over 1500m from Wednesday to Friday. Summary
A mixed week over the Alps, with rising and falling temperatures, Unsettled this weekend and towards next weekend.

J10

J10

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 12 February 2016

Current Synoptics and Conditions Some heavy snow fell over the past week in parts of the Alps, with very heavy snow at high altitude towards the west, with some rain at times on lower slopes. Synoptics Ongoing Rather unsettled to start the weekend, with winds for the West to South West, turning a little milder for a time Sunday. Into next week remaining unsettled with winds from the North East and turning a little colder. A little uncertainty towards the weekend, winds currently from a general Easterly direction, but either South Easterly or North Easterly, depending on this it may be cool or cold. the forecast temps below are based on the cool option. Charts - Saturday to Tuesday Charts - Wednesday to Friday Alps Detail Saturday – A cool West to South Westerly flow
850Hpa temps 0c to +2c and FL 1400m to 1800m (all except Eastern Austria)
850Hpa temps -3c to 0c and FL 1000m to 1400m (Germany, E and NE Austria) Sunday –  Milder to start, then colder from the North West
850Hpa temps +1c to +5c and FL 1400m to 2200m (all except NW Alps)
850Hpa temps -1c to +1c and FL 1000m to 1400m (SW Germany, NW Switzerland) Monday – Cooler Winds From East to North East, coldest NW, mildest South East
850Hpa temps -5c to -1c and FL 800m to 1200m (Northern parts of Austria and Switzerland, Southern Germany )
850Hpa temps -1c to +3c and FL 1400m to 1800m (Elsewhere) Tuesday – Winds From East to South East, coldest NW, mildest South East
850Hpa temps -5c to -1c and FL 800m to 1200m (Northern parts of Austria and Switzerland, Southern Germany )
850Hpa temps -1c to +4c and FL 1500m to 2100m (Elsewhere) Wednesday – Turning colder from the North West
850Hpa temps -3c to -1c and FL 800m to 1200m (Northern parts of Austria and Switzerland, Southern Germany )
850Hpa temps 0c to +2c and FL 1200m to 1800m (Elsewhere) Thursday – coldest NW, mildest South East
850Hpa temps -3c to -1c and FL 800m to 1200m (Northern parts of Austria and Switzerland, Southern Germany )
850Hpa temps 0c to +3c and FL 1400m to 2200m (Elsewhere) Friday – Winds veering North Easterly and turning a little colder
850Hpa temps -5c to -3c and FL 800m to 1200m (Northern parts of Austria and Switzerland, Southern Germany )
850Hpa temps -2c to +3c and FL 1400m to 1800m (Elsewhere) Total Precipitation
With low pressure over or close to the Alps, it is set to be an unsettled with periods of snow most days. While there are set to be heavy bursts of precipitation, most of this will be persistent as op;posed to heavy. As a result precipitation totals are set to be lower than last week generally, with 30mm-50mm widespread, upto 100mm over Southern parts of Switzerland, and under 25mm over NE Austria. Possibly a little drier towards next weekend. Total Snowfall (Estimates)
Above 1500m it looks as if it will be an all snow event, Snow Totals 50cm generally, 1m locally in parts of Switzerland, up to 25cm in Eastern Austria.
1250m-1500m Rain/Snow mix this weekend, thereafter a snow event 30cm generally, 50cm locally in parts of Switzerland, up to 15cm in Eastern Austria.
1000m-1250m Mostly rain this weekend, with a rain/snow mix thereafter, with upto 25cm of snow possible in places. Summary
An unsettled and snowy week for the higher Alps. SNnowfalls probably not as heavy last week, however lower freezing levels means more in the way of medium slopes snow.

J10

J10

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 7 February 2016

Current Synoptics and Conditions Rather mixed over the Alps in recent weeks some heavy snow at altitude but with temperatures never being that cold, some lower resorts seeing more in the way of rain than snow. Synoptics Ongoing This general theme continuing into next week, with winds generally from a westerly direction. It is unlikely to be very cold apart from a transient North Westerly flow and Polar Maritime airmass midweek.The flow also South Westerly at times, however no sign of the ridiculously mild air we have seen at times recently.This combined with generally unsettled weather means that there could be a lot of snow again for the higher resorts and slopes, as ever though the detail makes all the difference. Charts - Sunday to Tuesday
Charts - Wednesday to Friday
Sunday – Turning colder from the west
850Hpa temps -2c to +2c and FL 1200m to 1600m (France, W Switzerland, Italy and S Austria)
850Hpa temps +4c to +7c and FL 1800m to 2400m (Germany, N and NE Austria) Monday – Westerly winds
850Hpa temps +1c to +4c generally, locally +5 to +6c Switzerland/ Austria border
FL 1800m to 2200m generally Tuesday – South Westerly winds, cooler in the South
850Hpa temps 0c to +3c and FL 1600m to 2000m (Italy and Southern parts of both Switzerland and Austria)
850Hpa temps +4c to +7c and FL 1800m to 2400m (Germany, N and NE Austria) Wednesday – North Westerly winds, much colder from the North for all areas
850Hpa temps -6c to -3c and FL 800m to 1000m generally
850Hpa temps -3c to -1c and FL 900m to 1200m (Italy and far South of Austria and Switzerland) Thursday – South Westerly winds return, milder from the SW
850Hpa temps -3c to -1c and FL 1000m to 1400m generally
850Hpa temps 0c to +2c and FL 1400m to 1800m (France and W Switzerland) Friday – South Westerly winds return, milder from the SW
850Hpa temps 0c to +4c and FL 1200m to 1800m generally Total Precipitation There are too many potential snowfall events to try to go into detail this week with pretty much every day there are bands of precipitation edging in from the west. While Western areas are likely to see the bulk of the precipitation, most of these events are likely to push across further east, so most areas of the Alps are likely to see large precipitation totals this week, perhaps only the NE of Austria remaining relatively drier. The GFS 06Hz run suggests precipitation totals of up to 6 inches for France and W Switzerland, 2-4 inches E Switzerland, SW Germany and W Austria and 1-2 inches SE Germany, and Central Austria. NE Austria seems likely to be drier with only 10mm expected here, while N Italy looks likely to see 4-6 inches of precipitation. Total Snowfall The big question is how much of this will be snow, snow Estimates this week. Above 2000m it looks as if it will be an all snow event, Snow Totals 1m+ (west) up to 50cm-1m  Central areas.
1500m-2000m looks like the vast majority will be snow, and all snow from Midweek onwards Snow Totals 1m+ (west) up to 50cm-75cm  Central areas,
1250m-1500m Rain/Snow mix this weekend, Snow midweek, then more Snow than rain Thursday/Friday Snow Totals 20cm-50cm  (west) up to 50cm Central areas,
1000m-1250m Rain to start, Snow midweek, then a rain/snow mix thereafter
750m-1000m Rain to start and finish, mostly snow midweek (From snow-forecast.com) Precipitation Charts Summary A very unsettled and snowy week for the higher Alps. Probably not the best skiing conditions at times due to the heavy snowfalls, but this should help the ski season going forward.  

J10

J10

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 29 January 2016

Current Synoptics and Conditions
Some very mild weather over the Alps over recent days with South Westerly winds. However due to the previous heavy snow, still some very good conditions, although lower slopes were starting to suffer with thinning snow depths. Synoptics Ongoing Weekend
Mild South Westerly winds continuing to bring mild and settled weather over the Alps for Saturday morning and early afternoon. However a cold front is set to edge in from the north West later Saturday and into Sunday.  This will bring colder weather from the North West and heavy precipitation over much of the Alps for Sunday, more details on the expected snow level in the detailed section below. However turning a bit milder from the South West later in the day. Monday and Tuesday
Very mild South Westerly winds and High Pressure edging into the Alps for Monday and Tuesday, and any precipitation in the east quickly edging away, Freezing levels may reach 4000m for South Western parts of the Alps, but turning a little cooler from the North West later on Tuesday. End of Week
Continuing to turn much colder over the Alps with a Polar Maritime airmass affecting all areas by Thursday, and with fronts edging in bringing a snow risk across the Alps.
There are also signs of a further North Westerly outbreaks over the Alps into the weekend.
Alps Temperatures Saturday - Sunday
Mild to start, turning colder from the North West late Saturday into Sunday, before turning mild again from the South West later Sunday. Saturday
850Hpa temps +0c to +4c and FL 1800m to 2200m (Generally)

Sunday
850Hpa temps -4c to +2c and FL 900m to 1800m (Austria, colder in the east)
850Hpa temps +0c to +4c and FL 1800m to 2600m (France, Switzerland and Western Alps, milder to the SW) Monday – Tuesday
Turning much milder for Monday and to start Tuesday, turning a bit colder from the NW later into Tuesday evening.
Monday 850Hpa temps +4c to +11c and FL 3000m to 4000m (France, Switzerland and Western Alps, milder to the SW)
Tuesday 850Hpa temps +4c to +7c generally and FL 3000m to 3200m Wednesday - Friday
Colder again from the North West, but slightly milder again from the west on Friday
Wednesday 850Hpa temps -2c to +3c and FL 1200m to 2200m (colder North and West, milder to the South and Italy)
Thursday 850Hpa temps -4c to -7c and FL 600m to 1000m, perhaps locally 1200m in the south  (colder North and West, milder to the South and Italy)
Friday 850Hpa temps -1c to +2c and FL 1200m to 1800m (France, Switzerland and Germany) 850Hpa temps -2c to -7c and FL 600m to 1400m (Austria, coldest further east) Total Precipitation   There appear to be two main areas of precipitation this week.
A cold front is set to edge in from the North West later on Saturday across much of the Alps, and is set to remain over the much of the Alps on Sunday, before clearing Austria to the East early Monday.  Snow levels to start around 1200m to 1500m Saturday midnight, dropping to 1000m to 1200m by 6am Sunday, however increasingly steadily to around 2000m by midday Sunday for France, Switzerland  and other Western areas, and this spreading into Austria later.

Snow amounts possible (est) at 1000m 0cm (rain event) 1500m 20cm (rain later) 2000m 50cm (perhaps rain later in west) 2500m 50cm-75cm Then drier until midweek before another front edges down from  the North West around Wednesday, looking light to start but intensifying as it edges south. With the snow level  1400m on its leading edge, 1000m behind the front.  This is forecast to drop steadily through the event to 800m by midnight and to 600-800m during Thursday so a much better event for lower slopes and resorts than the one over the weekend. Snow amounts possible (est) at 1000m 15cm (rain to start) 1500m 20cm (snow preceded by rain) 2000m 30cm 2500m 40cm Summary
A complete mixed bag this week, Some snow at times for all, but also some rain for most late Sunday, Very mild indeed Monday and Tuesday.
Then colder from the North West with the forecast of snow for many, and looking cool, with the chance of further NW outbreaks into next weekend and quite possibly beyond.  

J10

J10

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 22 January 2016

Current Synoptics and Conditions After heavy snowfalls a few weeks and recent drier but very cold weather, skiing conditions remain very good. Settled conditions over the weekend should mean great skiing weather, but starting to turn milder again from the west. Synoptics Ongoing After models divergence in recent weeks, this week weather ifs much easier to forecast, however this does mean that conditions are set to turn very much milder from the West. In many ways this is a trade off, very good conditions to ski in, albeit with softening conditions in the afternoon. This is not good for long term snow retention, as ever higher slopes will be less affected for both. Weekend
High Pressure building over NW Europe, with milder weather starting to spread in from the west, with a warm front bringing some precipitation across the Alps on Saturday.
Very mild over the Western Alps by Sunday, staying much colder over Eastern Austria for most of Sunday, however turning more settled on Sunday. Monday and Tuesday
South Westerly winds spreading across all of the Alps by the end of Tuesday, with very mild and settled weather across all of the Alps by the end of Tuesday. End of Week
The pattern remains model unchanged, with south westerly winds and largely settled and mild conditions across the Alps, however perhaps cooler weather from the North West at times. Alps Temperatures Saturday - Sunday
For Saturday High Pressure centred to the North West Europe, with NE winds, but with the air originating from the SW increasingly over the weekend.
850Hpa temps +2c to -3c and FL Sea level to 600m (Eastern Austria)
850Hpa temps +2c to +3c and FL 1800m to 2100m (SW Alps) For Sunday, turning milder from the west.
850Hpa temps +2c to -3c and FL 900m to 2100m (Western Austria to Eastern Austria)
850Hpa temps +2c to +6c and FL 2100m to 2400m (France, Switzerland and Western Alps) Monday – Wednesday
Continuing to turn milder from the West, but settled conditions, with plenty of sunshine. Monday
850Hpa temps +2c to +5c and FL 1800m to 2400m (Western Austria to Eastern Austria)
850Hpa temps +5c to +8c and FL 2700m to 3000m (France, Switzerland and Western Alps) Tuesday
850Hpa temps +5c to +9c and FL 2600m to 3200m (colder Eastern Austria, mildest Western Alps) Wednesday
850Hpa temps +5c to +8c and FL 2400m to 3000m (colder Eastern Austria, mildest Western Alps) Thursday to Friday Perhaps turning slightly colder from the North on Thursday, perhaps a bit milder again from the east Friday.
850Hpa temps +4c to +7c and FL 2300m to 2700m (colder Germany , mildest Italy) Friday
850Hpa temps +0c to +4c and FL 1600m to 2400m (Austria, coldest further east)
850Hpa temps +3c to +4c and FL 2000m to 2600m (France, Switzerland and Germany) Total Precipitation
On Saturday, a front edges in from the west, bringing moderate precipitation in places, Snow levels around 1200m in Central/Western areas, well below 1000m in Austria, by the evening.
Thereafter, mostly dry this week, but perhaps some patchy precipitation in parts of Austria at times. Summary
Turning much milder from the west, however always that little bit colder in Austria, especially Eastern Austria. A better week for skiing in, than for the slopes themselves.

J10

J10

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