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Wednesday 8th June

A major disappointment. Now up to Bust No.24. No.21: Sunday 5th June: Failed forecast of scattered thundery showers. One large cell near Wellington, Somerset. No.22: Monday 6th June: Failed forecast of scattered thundery showers for local area. Widespread and intense activity over west again, Ireland and Irish sea. No.23: Tuesday 7th June: MAJOR DISAPPOINTMENT AND LET-DOWN. The last two entries were mildly annoying - today's bust has been the most infuriating event for many years.

Severe Blizzard

Severe Blizzard

 

May - Continued lack of activity

May has yielded NO thunder (or even any distant lightning) in Guildford. There have been 20 'busts' in 2016 now - a truly horrendous figure. Getting thoroughly bored writing about missing out on thunderstorms while seeing the usual areas enjoying another 'good' convective and thundery year. Can't believe that the sum total of two 'good' convective months, April and May, can only deal out two rumbles locally (26th April) and one of those two months is completely thunder-free, again. Aft

Severe Blizzard

Severe Blizzard

 

Thursday 28th April: Bust No.9

Frontal system crossing UK was supposed to bring heavy rainfall and was NOT supposed to be thundery. S.E. gets massive downgrade with barely any rain while there was an unpleasant gusty wind instead. Meanwhile, parts of the Midlands including Bolton, Lancashire saw big upgrade with outbreak of thunderstorms along the cold front - this was a surprise and not forecast. Cannot remember when there was last such a surprise here in Guildford, possibly 28th July 2014!   Firmly get the impression t

Severe Blizzard

Severe Blizzard

 

Tuesday 26th April: Partial success.

Thunder heard at 4:31 pm from cell to N.E. giving heavy soft hail shower over Ripley at this time. Further rumble at 4:37 pm. First thunder heard for exactly 8 months, previous being 26th August 2015. Good to finally have our first event of the year, although it was not from an overhead source. There had been moderate soft hail showers at 3:43 pm and another at 7:30 pm (Guildford).

Severe Blizzard

Severe Blizzard

 

Bust No.8 - Thursday 14th April

More thundery showers in the south midlands, including Cambridgeshire areas and parts of East Anglia.  Thundery showers were supposed to also affect areas to the south such as Surrey. Also annoying that thunder risk over all the next few days has been downgraded for Guildford area - no doubt this will verify as nothing thundery or snow-related ever upgrades for this location. Meanwhile, another hard-earned day off (Friday 15th) to be ruined by the usual drizzle and light rain dross with ano

Severe Blizzard

Severe Blizzard

 

Bust No.7 - Wednesday 13th April

Convergence line develops over area just to the south of Guildford with hopeful darkening of sky to S.S.W. at 1700. Light shower of large droplets at 1718~1730. Cu develop overhead and to north after 1730 and evident heavy shower to north and N.E. to at least 1900. Rainfall radar showed sferics only 4 miles from home. No thunder actually heard.  Also, quite good thunderstorm evident over Canterbury earlier in afternoon and the usual traditional areas that 'do well' (Peterborough and pa

Severe Blizzard

Severe Blizzard

 

Thursday 7th & Tuesday 12th April - 2 more busts

Bust No.5; Thursday 7th April: Morning drizzle finally gave way to decent convection after 1500. There was an impressive heavy shower at 1635~1650 giving ice pellets at 1640 and slightly larger 4~5 mm hail at 1642~1647. An impressive shower and so close to getting that elusive thunder - expecting a flash and bang during the most intense part of the rain and hail mix. Some sferics observed to the north and east including the Twickenham area and, earlier to the N.W. over Reading and Berkshire.  

Severe Blizzard

Severe Blizzard

 

Winter Forecast 2015/16

I usually start these off with a recap of last winter, but this year I covered that in a separate blog, so here's one I made earlier: Moving onto this winter, there are a number of factors that make this a really fascinating one to watch. I'll go through each of these in turn, explaining what they're likely to do and how that's likely to affect us, before going on to look briefly at the methodology of the forecast, and, finally, getting to the fun bit, where I pull all of this together

LomondSnowstorm

LomondSnowstorm

 

My winter tracker

[size=2][b][color=#000000]Winter 2014/15 Oldham East[/color][/b][/size] [size=2][b]none event​[/b][/size] [size=2][color=#000000][b]Winter 2012/13 Snow Days and Accum's[/b][/color] [b][color=#696969]5th Dec 2012:[/color][color=#0000FF] [/color][color=#0000FF]Light covering :)[/color] [color=#696969]6th Dec 2012:[/color] [color=#0000FF]Sleety snow showers 12pm onwards 1-2cm accumulated.[/color][/b][/size] [b][size=2][color=#696969]13th Jan 2013:[/color] [color=#0000ff]2cm [/color][/size][

Snowmad79

Snowmad79

 

A Winter's Tale Snow Diary 2015/2016

Friday 13th November - Wet snow shower from the west in the morning - no lying snow Friday 20th November - Snow from a band from the north late in the day - Lying snow of a brief dusting Friday 27th November - Snow shower from the west late in the day - no lying snow Sunday 29th November - Snow showers from the west late in the day - no lying snow Thursday 10th December - Snow shower from the west late in the day - no lying snow Thursday 31st Decenber - Snow shower from the west

A Winter's Tale

A Winter's Tale

 

Recap of 2014/15 forecast (2015/16 forecast to follow...)

Before I start on this year's forecast, it's worth recapping last year's one for a look at what went right, and (moreso) what went wrong, and why. If my 2013/14 forecast was wrong but for the 'right' reasons i.e. the synoptic pattern for the NH that materialised was similar to the one that was predicted even if it was milder than I'd predicted for here, last winter's was pretty much the opposite, for Scotland at least. A look at the predicted/analogue (left) vs the actual height anomalies (on

LomondSnowstorm

LomondSnowstorm

 

El Nino vs UK winter

[code=auto:0] Weak El Nino (Oceanic Nino Index SST Anomoly +0.5 to +0.9) Dates Winter Class Info 1951 – 1952 Mild & snowless According to reports this winter was generally mild but snowy in March 1952 when easterly winds and blizzards caused havoc for the South East. 1952 – 1953 Mild & snowless Despite a cold end to Autumn with 20-25cm of snow across a belt from Wales to East Anglia the winter turned out to be rather snowless with more in

Snowmad79

Snowmad79

 

Tempelfjorden Glacier

So I have finally been able to go out in the field. My first trip was to Tempelfjorden tidewater glacier. This glacier has the highest surge rate in the Svalbard region. Sadly we could not get close, for obvious reasons; calving. When arriving I was lucky enough to witness a carving event, although not of great magnitude. I have attached a few images of the calving front, which was several hundred meters. Not the englacial feature in the zoomed picture. [attachment=257846:P8070012.JPG][attachm

Mark Bayley

Mark Bayley

 

Svalbard - the first days

I am enrolled at UNIS,Svalbard, studying Arctic glaciers till September. I am hoping to keep this blog updated with details of what I am up to and pictures. So far I am limited to Longyearbyen, having not received gun training, but next week will start with fieldwork. The weather has so far been sunny, and rather warm, reaching a high of 15c yesterday. The constant light is taking some getting use too! I'll be visiting a local glacier on Thursday, where I hope to update!

Mark Bayley

Mark Bayley

 

Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 13

So this is the final full blog for Glastonbury 2015, ahead of the gates opening tomorrow. [b]Daily forecasts [/b] [size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June[/b][/size] [attachment=253786:GFS 23rd June 12Hz + 24.JPG] Mostly Fine and Dry with a small ridge of High Pressure over Southern parts of the UK. Sunny to start, a bit more cloudy in the afternoon. Temps low 20s, [b][size=3]Thursday 25 June[/size][/b] [attachment=253785:GFS 23rd June 12Hz + 48.JPG] Very similar conditions to those of Wednesday

J10

J10

 

Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 12

Well we are nearly there, and for some of you this will be the last Glastonbury blog you read, so enjoy Glastonbury whatever the weather. [b]Run up to festival[/b] The promised rain arrived in Glastonbury, a little earlier than anticipated and looking at radar returns close to 10mm of rain fell in the past 24 hours. Which according to people on site, hasn't made things too wet. [b]Daily forecasts [/b] [size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June[/b][/size] As per recent forecast low Pressure remains

J10

J10

 

Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 11

This is the 11th blog, and there have some real ups and downs. The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive. The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive. The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. The 8th blog (Issued 18 June

J10

J10

 

Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 10

This is the 10th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015. The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive. The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive. The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. The 8th blog (Issued 18 June) was slig

J10

J10

 

Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 9

This is the 9th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015. The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive. The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive. The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. The 8th blog (Issued 18 June) was sligh

J10

J10

 

Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 8

This is the 8th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015. The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive. The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive. The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. So a definite trend towards a wet fest

J10

J10

 

Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 7

This is the 7th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015. The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive. The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive. The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. This forecast will contain charts for the past 2 days, and most of these charts were already posted in the main thread yesterday. As we move closer

J10

J10

 

Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 6

This is the 6th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015. The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive. The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive. This forecast will be split into 3 main sources [b]1. Prognostic Charts at 6-10 day and 8-14 day [from NOAA][/b] [attachment=253140:610day.03 from 14 June.gif] [attachment=253149:610day.03 from 15 June.gif] [attachment=253141:814day.03 from 14 June.gif] [a

J10

J10

 

Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 5

This is the 5th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015. The previous blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive. IMO a definite trend is starting to emerge, which I will outline later, of course whether or not this is accurate, time will tell. This forecast will be split into 2 main sources [b]1. Prognostic Charts at 6-10 day and 8-14 day [from NOAA][/b] The 6-10 day chart at this poll covers the immediate run up to the festival while the 8-14 day charts covers the festival period itself.

J10

J10

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