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Wednesday 8th June

A major disappointment. Now up to Bust No.24. No.21: Sunday 5th June: Failed forecast of scattered thundery showers. One large cell near Wellington, Somerset. No.22: Monday 6th June: Failed forecast of scattered thundery showers for local area. Widespread and intense activity over west again, Ireland and Irish sea. No.23: Tuesday 7th June: MAJOR DISAPPOINTMENT AND LET-DOWN. The last two entries were mildly annoying - today's bust has been the most infuriating event for many years.

Severe Blizzard

Severe Blizzard

 

Glastonbury 2016 Festival - Blog 4 Issued 8th June 16

This is my final blog for Glastonbury 2016; however there will official forecasts appearing shortly on the Net Weather website to keep you all up to date.I will also try to contribute a little to the Glastonbury blog a little over the next few weeks. This blog will again feature the NOAA surface pressure charts and the latest ensemble forecast, and while it is still far too early to get any accurate picture, we can perhaps get an idea of the weather leading into Glastonbury. NOAA Press

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Glastonbury 2016 Festival - Blog 3 Issued 5th June 16

This update concentrates on the NOAA pressure charts and the ensemble charts for the Somerset area. This will enable us to see what the current projections are to the run up to the festival. NOAA Updates Looking firstly at the 6-10 day outlook we can see the High Pressure scenario initially favoured being slowly edged away to the North and East, however without the Low Pressure starting to dominate as the longer term (8-14 day) outlooks would have suggested. Next onto t

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Glastonbury 2016 Festival - Blog 2

This is the second blog for Glastonbury 2016. This will be largely concentrated on the NOAA charts over the past few days. Unfortunately they still do not run all the way to the start of the festival, but the longer term runs, now go up to 15th June,so about a week before the door opens. So perhaps we can start to see trends emerging. I will also look at the ensembles which now start to cover the start of the festival, a massive caveat in that these tend to change widely over time

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Glastonbury 2016 Festival - Blog 1

Here is the first initial blog for the Glastonbury festival 2016. This will take the form of information from a number of sources. Of course this far out, it is very much an indicative look at best, and there will be many ups and downs to the forecasts. CFS Long Term – (Net Weather) The past two weeks of these runs have been attached. In each case the pattern from left to right is June forecast (23 May)                                    June forecast (29 May)                

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May - Continued lack of activity

May has yielded NO thunder (or even any distant lightning) in Guildford. There have been 20 'busts' in 2016 now - a truly horrendous figure. Getting thoroughly bored writing about missing out on thunderstorms while seeing the usual areas enjoying another 'good' convective and thundery year. Can't believe that the sum total of two 'good' convective months, April and May, can only deal out two rumbles locally (26th April) and one of those two months is completely thunder-free, again. Aft

Severe Blizzard

Severe Blizzard

 

Thursday 28th April: Bust No.9

Frontal system crossing UK was supposed to bring heavy rainfall and was NOT supposed to be thundery. S.E. gets massive downgrade with barely any rain while there was an unpleasant gusty wind instead. Meanwhile, parts of the Midlands including Bolton, Lancashire saw big upgrade with outbreak of thunderstorms along the cold front - this was a surprise and not forecast. Cannot remember when there was last such a surprise here in Guildford, possibly 28th July 2014!   Firmly get the impression t

Severe Blizzard

Severe Blizzard

 

Tuesday 26th April: Partial success.

Thunder heard at 4:31 pm from cell to N.E. giving heavy soft hail shower over Ripley at this time. Further rumble at 4:37 pm. First thunder heard for exactly 8 months, previous being 26th August 2015. Good to finally have our first event of the year, although it was not from an overhead source. There had been moderate soft hail showers at 3:43 pm and another at 7:30 pm (Guildford).

Severe Blizzard

Severe Blizzard

 

Bust No.8 - Thursday 14th April

More thundery showers in the south midlands, including Cambridgeshire areas and parts of East Anglia.  Thundery showers were supposed to also affect areas to the south such as Surrey. Also annoying that thunder risk over all the next few days has been downgraded for Guildford area - no doubt this will verify as nothing thundery or snow-related ever upgrades for this location. Meanwhile, another hard-earned day off (Friday 15th) to be ruined by the usual drizzle and light rain dross with ano

Severe Blizzard

Severe Blizzard

 

Bust No.7 - Wednesday 13th April

Convergence line develops over area just to the south of Guildford with hopeful darkening of sky to S.S.W. at 1700. Light shower of large droplets at 1718~1730. Cu develop overhead and to north after 1730 and evident heavy shower to north and N.E. to at least 1900. Rainfall radar showed sferics only 4 miles from home. No thunder actually heard.  Also, quite good thunderstorm evident over Canterbury earlier in afternoon and the usual traditional areas that 'do well' (Peterborough and pa

Severe Blizzard

Severe Blizzard

 

Thursday 7th & Tuesday 12th April - 2 more busts

Bust No.5; Thursday 7th April: Morning drizzle finally gave way to decent convection after 1500. There was an impressive heavy shower at 1635~1650 giving ice pellets at 1640 and slightly larger 4~5 mm hail at 1642~1647. An impressive shower and so close to getting that elusive thunder - expecting a flash and bang during the most intense part of the rain and hail mix. Some sferics observed to the north and east including the Twickenham area and, earlier to the N.W. over Reading and Berkshire.  

Severe Blizzard

Severe Blizzard

 

Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 8 April 2016

Synoptic Summary and Current Conditions We are moving into the final parts of the skiing season, with many lower resorts starting to close down for the year and there were some very warm temperatures last week. However there is still some good skiing conditions on upper slopes, with decent snow totals from heavy snowfalls past the New Year and a top up in some resorts in recent days. The weather pattern for the weekend sees low pressure to the South East of the Alps, with South

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Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 1 April 2016

Synoptic Summary and Current Conditions Snow conditions are starting to reflect that we are now in April, with spring snow conditions becoming more widespread, however good skiing conditions remain on the higher slopes (as ever). Charts – Weekend High Pressure starting to build over Eastern Europe, with winds from a South to South Easterly direction bringing some very warm air up from Northern Africa. With general low pressure, some moderate precipitation, mostly rain is possible.

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Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 25 March 2016

Synoptic Summary and Current Conditions Snow conditions remain generally good or very good across the Alps. Snow over Austria in recent days has improved the conditions here. Elsewhere there has been a lack of snow generally for the past week and on piste the conditions remain very good. However off piste conditions are worsening and some fresh powder is desired. With temperatures dropping over recent days, spring snow has also been less of a problem. Charts - Saturday to Monday

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Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 18 March 2016

Synoptic Summary and Current Conditions For this weekend there is High Pressure centred over the UK, the Alps on the South Eastern flank of the High Pressure, with a E to NE breeze and cool conditions for the Alps, also mostly settled. Charts - Saturday to Tuesday The High pressure slowly edging away to the west, into the start of next week, allowing lower pressure to edge in for the South East, wins still from the East to North East. Charts - Wednesday to Friday Tow

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Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 11 March 2016

Synoptic Summary and Current Conditions There is currently an elongated High Pressure covering a narrow strip from Scandinavia running through the UK down to the Azores, with the Alps on the SE side of the High with cold/cool NE winds. Lower pressure to the  South of the Alps over parts of Italy. Conditions over the Alps are very good generally with the recent heavy snowfalls over the past month, looking a bit drier for the coming week, with more in the way of sunshine, but some showe

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Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 4 March 2016

Synoptic Summary and Current Conditions The clock has ticked on and all of a sudden, we have moved into Spring, and you would think that things may start warming up. However the weather has not been that mild, whit plenty of snow above 1500m, while at lower resorts there has rain one day, and snow the next. However colder in recent days, with more general snow to lower levels. Currently there a is a cool NW flow over the Alps, with low pressure to the north of the Alps. Charts

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Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 27 February 2016

Synoptic Summary and Current Conditions As we come to the end of the "winter" season, probably some of the best condition of the season for the Alps. Looking ahead another mixed week in prospect, mostly unsettled with all parts seeing some fresh snow at times but with fluctuating freezing levels, not for the first time. Charts - Saturday to Tuesday Low Pressure Centred over Northern Spain edging east into Northern Italy, keeping things very unsettled over the Alps, esp

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Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 20 February 2016

Synoptic Summary and Current Conditions The conditions over the Alps over the past week have been the best over the Alps generally for this season, with good snow cover and fresh snow over many resorts. Currently looking rather mild over the Alps with winds for a westerly direction. Charts - Saturday to Tuesday A rather tricky position to gauge the Alps weather for this forthcoming week, it is set to tune much colder over much of North Europe, but current models suggest that

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Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 12 February 2016

Current Synoptics and Conditions Some heavy snow fell over the past week in parts of the Alps, with very heavy snow at high altitude towards the west, with some rain at times on lower slopes. Synoptics Ongoing Rather unsettled to start the weekend, with winds for the West to South West, turning a little milder for a time Sunday. Into next week remaining unsettled with winds from the North East and turning a little colder. A little uncertainty towards the weekend, winds curre

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Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 7 February 2016

Current Synoptics and Conditions Rather mixed over the Alps in recent weeks some heavy snow at altitude but with temperatures never being that cold, some lower resorts seeing more in the way of rain than snow. Synoptics Ongoing This general theme continuing into next week, with winds generally from a westerly direction. It is unlikely to be very cold apart from a transient North Westerly flow and Polar Maritime airmass midweek.The flow also South Westerly at times, however no sign

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Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 29 January 2016

Current Synoptics and Conditions Some very mild weather over the Alps over recent days with South Westerly winds. However due to the previous heavy snow, still some very good conditions, although lower slopes were starting to suffer with thinning snow depths. Synoptics Ongoing Weekend Mild South Westerly winds continuing to bring mild and settled weather over the Alps for Saturday morning and early afternoon. However a cold front is set to edge in from the north West later Saturday a

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Alps Ski and Snow Forecast Blog issued 22 January 2016

Current Synoptics and Conditions After heavy snowfalls a few weeks and recent drier but very cold weather, skiing conditions remain very good. Settled conditions over the weekend should mean great skiing weather, but starting to turn milder again from the west. Synoptics Ongoing After models divergence in recent weeks, this week weather ifs much easier to forecast, however this does mean that conditions are set to turn very much milder from the West. In many ways this is a t

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