With high pressure still strong over the near continent, Atlantic systems can't make it over the UK, even though they're starting to graze the northwest at times.
With a strong European anticyclone ‘blocking’ approaching Atlantic systems, we have a stalemate situation at present causing an East/West split. As a result, much of England and East Wales closer to the ‘high’ is dry but rather cold, with warnings issued of patchy fog, dense and freezing in places. Across Northern Ireland and Scotland, it’s milder but breezier and more unsettled in the West, with only subtle changes expected over the next few days.
This morning we have a weakening front giving patchy rain and drizzle, mostly over Central Scotland, Dumfries and the Isle of Man. This'll spread to parts of North West England before 'fizzling-out’ through the day. Remaining parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland where it's a much milder morning than yesterday, see isolated showers and a few sunny intervals, but most places keep a good deal of cloud. A South or South West wind will be quite fresh in the West, but somewhat lighter towards Lothian and The Borders. It’ll be very mild in the West with top temperatures 10 or 11C, but colder towards The Borders where 6 to 8C is more likely.
Apart from patchy drizzle mostly in the North West, much of England and Wales will have a dry day, in a mainly light southerly breeze. Patchy fog is again causing problems this morning, and it’s locally dense and freezing in the Trent Valley, the Vale of York and in the East and South. Like yesterday this’ll be slow to clear from some parts, and where it lingers, temperatures will struggle to get much above freezing. It'll also stay cold where it remains grey and misty while in complete contrast, other parts see a lovely day in winter sunshine that allows temperatures to reach 5 to 7C and a mild 9 or 10C towards Cornwall and Devon.
After dark, it’ll turn misty again, and where skies are clear, patchy fog freezing in places will reform mostly in the East and South East. There’ll also be areas of low cloud thick enough to give a little drizzle here and there, but apart from some bursts of rain over Northern Ireland and the West of Scotland, it’ll continue mainly dry.
A southerly breeze will be light in the East and South, but fresher in the West. As a result, we shouldn’t have any major fog problems in the West, with the wind helping prevent temperatures from falling below 4 to 7C. In the East and South, however, there’ll be another slight frost, with lowest temperatures -2 to +1C.
Wednesday looks much the same, with just subtle changes. There’ll probably be more of a breeze, so the fog should lift more readily to leave spells of hazy, winter sunshine in places, while others remain grey and misty. Apart from some further drizzle in places, it’ll stay dry, with the West of Northern Ireland and Scotland close to Atlantic systems most likely to see some rain at times. Here a fresh southerly wind should lift temperatures to a mild 9 to 11C again, but it’ll continue to be colder in the East, with 3 to 6C more likely here. Little change is expected after dark when it turns misty, with eastern areas seeing a slight frost, and perhaps patchy fog forming again. In the far West, it’ll be milder but more unsettled and breezier.
The remainder of the week continues mainly dry in central and eastern areas, but with a bitter South East wind on Thursday and into Friday.
It'll gradually turn less cold or milder from the West over the weekend, however, with some rain or showers perhaps wintry in the East for a while.