Reports published today from the WMO and UK Met Office announce findings today showing this year's global average surface temperature is likely to be the warmest on record. As "The state of the global climate in 2015 will make history" these findings head their way to the UN conference on Climate Change in Paris.
“The state of the global climate in 2015 will make history as for a number of reasons," said WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud today.
The WMO, World Meteorological Organisation and also the UK Met Office have both announced findings today showing this year’s global average surface temperature is likely to be the warmest on record. 2015 is likely to be the hottest year on record, with ocean surface temperatures at the highest level since measurements began.
Another milestone is for 2015 to reach the symbolic and significant step of 1° Celsius warming above the pre-industrial era. The Met Office think 2015 is set to mark the first time in the record that annual global temperatures reach 1 °C above ‘pre-industrial’ temperatures (taken here as an average of the 1850-1900 period*)
The WMO give a preliminary estimate based on data from January to October shows that the global average surface temperature for 2015 so far was around 0.73 °C above the 1961-1990 average of 14.0°C and approximately 1°C above the pre-industrial 1880-1899 period.
South America is having its hottest year on record, as is Asia (similar to 2007), and Africa and Europe their second hottest.
Also the 5 year period 2011-2015 has been the warmest five-year period on record, with many extreme weather events.
According to preliminary figures as of the end of September 2015, 2011-15 was the world’s warmest five-year period on record, at about 0.57°C (1.01°F) above the average for the standard 1961-90 reference period. It was the warmest five-year period on record for Asia, Europe, South America and Oceania, and for North America. WMO compiled the five-year analysis because it provides a longer-term climate signal than the annual report.
Features of 2015
Ocean heat and sea level rise - The world's oceans take in most of the energy building in the climate system and this results in higher ocean temperatures and sea levels. The latest estimates of global sea level indicate that the global average sea level in the first half of 2015 was the highest since satellite observations became available in 1993. The Tropical Pacific was much warmer than average, exceeding 1°C over much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, consistent with the signature of a strong El Niño.
Heatwaves - Major heatwaves have hit India, Pakistan, parts of Europe, northern Africa and the Middle east during late Spring and summer. Many new records were set, including for South Africa in Spring. Australia had its warmest October on record and a heatwave early in the month set new records for early season warmth. One notably cold area was the Antarctic, where a strong anomaly in atmospheric patterns known as the Southern Annular Mode lasted for several months.
Sea Ice - The Arctic Sea ice continues to decline. In 2015, the daily maximum extent was the lowest on record, the minimum extent was the 4th lowest. The Antarctic ice however is growing. Separately NASA scientists continue to investigate this. “There are many reasons for that to happen. Geographically, the Arctic is very different from the Antarctic. In the Antarctic, the sea ice surrounds a continent. In the Arctic, the sea ice is surrounded by land. The environmental forcings are very different and therefore the trends in the two regions are not expected to be the same or even similar “NASA
Rainfall and Drought - Reports of high rainfall and flooding against drought stricken areas are hard to chart as long term variations or short term events. Western state of the US have had a long dry warm spell, heavy rains have hit Chile, Argentina, Pakistan, China and parts of Africa resulting in serious flooding. Brazil, which started the year in drought in southern and eastern areas, saw the focus of the drought shift north with scant rainfall during the dry season over the Amazon.
Tropical cyclones – Hurricane Patricia was the strongest hurricane on record either side of North America. The extraordinary succession of cyclones hitting Yemen this autumn, Chapala then Megh
Why is 2015 so warm?
This is due to a powerful El Niño event combined with human-induced global warming. The strong El Nino has fuelled an exceptionally warm October with the overall warming impact expected to continue into 2016 . While this has contributed to 2015’s warmth, this is likely to be comparatively small compared to the long-term influence of warming caused by human greenhouse gas emissions according to Met Office research
Levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have reached new highs. Mr Jarraud “Greenhouse gas emissions, which are causing climate change, can be controlled. We have the knowledge and the tools to act. We have a choice. Future generations will not." The human induced global warming continues to be looked at international level.
The UK Winter is set for a mild start and perhaps record breaking warmth later too. Read the full winter forecast here.
COP21
This provisional statement has been released to be used at COP21. The United Nations conference on Climate Change due to take start at the end of this month. This is the annual meeting of all countries which want to take action for the climate. It will be held in Le Bourget, France, (NE suburbs of Paris) from 30 November to 11 December
Worth reading http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en/getting-rid-of-received-ideas/ looking at climate myths and FAQs about the global warming issues
The WMO highlight "Today human activity is the prevailing force in global warming, which was never previously the case.” Although the main aim of COP21 is to reach an international climate agreement between governments, it is also the perfect opportunity to remind people of how everyone can help to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in their day-to-day lives.
What can I do?
Use energy efficient appliances
Switch off items on standby mode
Turn off lights when you leave the room
Beware of overheating your home in winter
Reduce internet use on your PC, tablet and phone
Don't waste water
Start cycling, using public transport and carpooling
Recycle waster and use fewer disposable items
Cut down on paper
Change your eating habits
* Met Office explanation - “While late 19th century temperatures are commonly taken to be indicative of pre-industrial, there is no fixed period that is used as standard and a variety of other periods have been used for observational and palaeo datasets. There are limitations in available data in the early instrumental record, making the average temperature in the reference period less certain. There is not a reliable indicator of global temperatures back to 1750, which is the era widely assumed to represent pre-industrial conditions. Therefore 1850-1900 is chosen here as the most reliable reference period, which also corresponds to the period chosen by IPCC to represent a suitable earlier reference period. “
