Ah here we go again
120 day Heatwave following the winter of no snow, although I seem to remember headlines screaming “100 days of mega snow…”
When do these events start, did they actually mean the US snowfall but forgot to mention that bit. If we get a really hot fortnight in July will they cry “We told you so, here’s the heatwave!”
Forecasting has to be useful. If I say “It is going to get warmer” Then maybe tomorrow will be 1C warmer and I would then be right. You probably won’t notice the difference and may say , “you said it was going to get hotter? “ If tomorrow was colder but the weekend was 1C warmer, again I would be right but big deal. So shouting about a heatwave without any time base is a cop out, yet of course sells more copy.
Why is everybody talking about this then? Because it is human nature to skim read, glance at the headlines in the newsagents, pass on the happy/dramatic news to anyone we pass. If a tabloid links their headline to the UK Met Office it will give the appearance of weight and science to their claims and more imporantly an opt out. If it all goes wrong, a la 100 days of snow, you can miss out the random ‘weather expert’ you quoted and point a cowardly finger at the Met Office.The Met. Office now have to issue press releases regularly to counteract such links in articles. However the headline screaming
"What a sizzler! UK set for THREE MONTHS of scorching hot weather in spring heatwave" does rather overshadow the MO’s drab “Is summer coming early?” on their webpage.“120 DAYS OF HOT SUNSHINE: Britain set to bask in longest summer since 1910 say forecasters”. All of them? I hear people in shops discussing the upcoming heatwave, that we are going to have a great summer and maybe we will. With climate change, hot, dry summers will become more likely but still punctuated with natural variations of occasional wet washout ones.The Met office issues a 3 month ahead trend for contingency planners, this is what is being quoted to back up the headlines. "The UK is one of the most challenging regions for which to provide robust long-range information. This is because weather in the UK is dominated by the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic which is highly variable, and thus less predictable.” There is plenty of guidance online about using these forecasts. In the user guidance it explains that“some outcomes are more likely than others.” They make make long-range predictions, with a spread of possible outcomes . This was key in the MO winter forecast, a much wetter winter was one outcome but not the highest by percentage and we then saw the wettest winter on record in parts of the UK.
A comparable situation. Tonight’s match Bayern Munich verses Man Utd. William Hill , not me!, give odds around 10% for a draw, 20% Man U win, 60% Bayern Munich win. So in the weather world, it could compare to 60% slightly below average precipitation (rain or snow) this Winter, 20% above average prec. this winter (wetter), and 9.9% complete flooding hell, 0.1% 100 days of snow. They are all possible options, Man U could win, if you are a fan you hold onto that 20% more, if you are a coldie, snow fan you would eye up that the small possibility and wish it will come off. No option is wrong at this point in the forecast, just some options are given more chance of happening. What do you plan for if you work for the government, with tax payers money and you’re preparing for likely emergency situations.
The MO forecast states: “Outlook information is provided for temperature; and also for precipitation, such as rain or snow. No part of the Outlook should be taken in isolation, as each element provides complementary information that should be used together to inform decisions". Therefore, the 3-month Outlook does not aim to provide information for a particular location or a particular day. Instead, it aims to inform the user of the average weather conditions across a large area. So lets clarify first for these newspaper claims, Spring= March April May. The 3 month forecast meant for contingency planners is for Apr May June. Not July and not the main part of summer. We are now into 'warm' territory, not “unusually mild” when referencing temperatures. Also for an “expert” to say at some points in June and July it will be warmer and in the mid to high 20s C in a newspaper, well done. Will the sky be blue at some points as well, although possibly grey at others. “BRITAIN is about to roast in a scorching FOUR-MONTH super-summer” Express. We still may have a sunny, hot summer but that is not what the 3 month forecast from the Met Office is talking about, so don't link them.
So if this manipulation goes on every 3 days on the front page about the UK weather, what other topics are getting the same treatment.
Choosing your expert who quotes the most extreme weather – heat, blizzard, storm gets the attention and so the profit, but trying to manipulate the appearance of the whole story by involving the scientists at the MO, is wrong.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-plannersThe Netweather 3 months forecast issued earlier in March also has a theme of average or slightly warmer temperatures across the UK, but does include more large scale regional variations within that on its UK maps.
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=. This forecast is issued each month.
If we do get a hot, dry summer there will be many happy people and many who it doesn’t suit, but do read those articles carefully, there is a lot of slight of hand.
Past Aprils' climatological Temp. data from Met Office, showing toasty April 2011 and cooler 2012/2013
