Calm Before The Storm
The weather is chilly but mainly dry with some good sunny spells today, but it's all eyes to the southwest as 'Child of tropical storm Nadine' is now developing and making a move toward the British Isles.
This system has been giving all forecasters some serious headaches this week, but the initial development at least is starting to firm up with heavy rain and blustery winds expected to start to move in from the southwest overnight tonight.
Initially although winds will be blustery with gusts of 40-50mph typically we expect it'll be the rain which is the first headline maker as it moves north during Sunday - moving into all southern regions, Wales, the Midlands and East Anglia during the day. It'll be heavy at times with 25-40mm+ possible - with the highest totals most likely through SW England, the west Midlands and Wales.
Child of Nadine then continues to move north overnight Sunday and into Monday with the rain potentially becoming heavier and just about all parts under threat of some further high totals. Winds from Monday into Tuesday are also expected to increase with gusts of 60-80mph possible on exposed coasts.
It's still important to say that although the initial details are firming up, these types of systems can be unpredictable, so please stay tuned for updates. Confidence certainly starts to fall away into next week as the forecasting models are again diverging in terms of the outcomes they are showing.
Below is a quick animation of the current forecast track of the system - you'll see it developing to the southwest of the UK initially, it then starts to head north and really then winds itself up as it moves over the country during the first part of the week:
All in all we're in for quite a bumpy ride over the next 72 hours or so, there is likely to be some disruption so please take care if you have to travel at all.
As we move through the rest of the week, although details are sketchy at this point the low pressure is expected to stay nearby, so it stays very unsettled with more heavy rain and strong winds possible at times.
22nd September 2012 11:30 Updated: 22nd September 2012 11:30