Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16
Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600
Upper and collocated surface low will be slow-moving close to the west of Ireland on Friday. Cold mid-levels (below -25C at 500 hPa) rotating N and NE across the British Isles around upper low to the west atop moist S to SWly flow at the surface will produce steep lapse rates, which will increase further with surface heating in sunny spells. Highest instability / CAPE values will be across southern Britain and Ireland - with upto 400-600 j/kg SBCAPE this afternoon during peak warming. This will support heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms to develop - some of which may organise into clusters, given some local wind convergence along with modest vertical shear of 20-30 knts. Hail (perhaps isolated 2-3cm diameter), gusty winds, intense rain leading to localised flash-flooding and C-G lightning are the primary hazards. Risk of thunderstorms should fade after dark.
Issued by: Nick Finnis
Issued by the Netweather forecast team whenever there is a risk of storms or severe convective weather, these discussion based and in depth forecasts will highlight the areas at risk and give an in depth description of the risk and the factors surrounding it.