Storm Discussion

[Gordon]

If I get no storms here

I will consider tomorrow successful

[maidstone weather]

and I have been good too!

it's the equivalent of getting presents from Santa if you've been a good little boy fingers, toes and everything else crossed anyway!

[sammie]

Some flash flooding pics from earlier. The rain and hail by UK standards was pretty bad, i have some video of it as well with up to pea size hail falling. Hail had still not melted from the grass up to about 90mins after it stopped... I was stuck for over 3 hours with hundreds of other people. Luckily we stopped in a dryish spot when the police closed the road, had we been further back we would have been in a scary position with the water rising around the cars who were stuck in traffic.

WAHAY MY FAV ROAD! The road from Helensburgh up to join there, the traffic lights are a pain in the but. But My God that is insane! Holy Crap I was driving along that road this morning, in fact we stoped at that petrol station!

I've never seen flash flooding that bad in this part of Scotland.

Just think 3 or 4 miles down the road from there and we haven't had a single speck of rain at all.

Edited June 14, 2009 by sammie

[wkdfraggle]

If I get no storms here

I will consider tomorrow successful

Storms fascinate me but i am a bit of a wuss and no likey when i am on my own - other half at Donnington Download till tomorrow so i am secretly hoping no storms till he is home ...................... i have a cupboard too

[Harry]

it's the equivalent of getting presents from Santa if you've been a good little boy fingers, toes and everything else crossed anyway!

Oh dear - don't like the santa reference - it will rain coal on me then lol

Nah...I'm sure I have been good

Edited June 14, 2009 by Harry

[karyo]

No nothing heard or seen either but rain getting heavier

Yes, large drops of rain. I love the fact that the shower is very slow moving!

Karyo

[Richie V]

Oh dear - don't like the santa reference - it will rain coal on me then lol

Nah...I'm sure I have been good

The santa reference for me: We will get cold rain with 3 mins of sleet due to the 850s been MARGINAL

[karyo]

It's chucking it down now! Still feeling comfortably warm though as I have the balcony door open.

Karyo

[Guest]

I thought it was weakening, but it looks good still on the radar. Give it another 20 mins and I'll be able to see it!

[Harry]

It's chucking it down now! Still feeling comfortably warm though as I have the balcony door open.

Karyo

Warm!? I'll say - all doors and windows open here - this is surely the warmest night of the year to date - got all the flaming mozzies and crane flies in though...too early for our 'daddy long legs' friends (as I am REALLY not a fan) but hey ho they are here - least no stag beetles flying in - that would give me a complete hernia, lol.

Back to the convective situation - pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeease please please please please!! lol. I hope tomorrow yields another one of those experiences for me - sun is setting, and a convergence line forms sparking towering Cb's right in front of my eyes, watching the 'birth' and the first flashes of lightning it throws out - that'd be smashing!

EDIT - UPDATE!!! - Either they know something we don't, but Estofex haven't even given us a WATCH (yellow border).....lol! Think they aren't bothering with us per chance, or something major has changed in the atmosphere, lol

Edited June 14, 2009 by Harry

[Nick F]

Bit odd that Estofex don't have a t-storm area at all across the UK and Ireland for tomorrow's forecast ... not very good in my estimation!

[donna-m]

If I get no storms here

I will consider tomorrow successful

totally agree with you ,

I have a 71% chance of storm tom and would be very happy to exchange houses with someone with a no risk ,

I realise that most of the people on here absolutely love a good lightning storm and i'd love to be one of them but i'm not i'm astophobic, and have been all my life.This was the main reason for me learning about the weather to conquer my fear of storms but no it hasn't!!

But with my lovely nw radar and can tell if a storm going to miss me or if i should hide !!!

good luck to everyone for your storms hopefully you'll get them and i wont

[maidstone weather]

Bit odd that Estofex don't have a t-storm area at all across the UK and Ireland for tomorrow's forecast ... not very good in my estimation!

Hi Nick, I emailed ESTOFEX about their seemingly poor forecasting of recent times, namely Wednesday and Saturday when there were widespread storms across England & Wales and then Ireland/Scotland respectively. This is the reply i received from Oscar Van Der Velde:

Thank you for your feedback.

On the day you mentioned, Wednesday, when thunderstorms did occur in the UK, our forecaster for that day had indicated a low probability thunder line in the correct area over the UK. We draw internally two extra lines of probability besides the line the visitors see. Probability lines are going for the moment through a test period before we publish them instead of the old thunder line. The forecaster of Wednesday had the choice of thunderstorms or no thunderstorms, and apparently chose the latter despite acknowledging there was some chance. As you noticed, probably also in previous years, the forecasts are rather hit or miss for your area. With the new probability lines we will start to publish soon you can expect to see us highlight the area with at least a low probability line whenever there is reasonable chance for deep convection, which is likely more frequently than the present single thunder line, which will be phased out soon (see the FAQ).

On Thursday, our forecaster had drawn the thunder line only for most eastern parts of the UK, and according to the EUCLID data we use for verification, it matched pretty well with what occurred. He did extend the internal low probability thunder line beyond that of the conventional line to include a large part of the UK.

For today, I agree with you that there is a reasonable chance of thunderstorms for Ireland and Scotland. Personally I would have drawn a thunder line. Our forecaster for today did mark the area with a low probability thunder line, which for the moment is still hidden for the public. I would say that based on the present 12Z soundings and GFS, there is a chance of spouts for Ireland and Scotland, although, convergence zones are not well developed today in GFS.

best regards,

Oscar van der Velde

European Storm Forecast Experiment

Edited June 14, 2009 by maidstone weather

[A.J]

totally agree with you ,

I have a 71% chance of storm tom and would be very happy to exchange houses with someone with a no risk ,

I realise that most of the people on here absolutely love a good lightning storm and i'd love to be one of them but i'm not i'm astophobic, and have been all my life.This was the main reason for me learning about the weather to conquer my fear of storms but no it hasn't!!

But with my lovely nw radar and can tell if a storm going to miss me or if i should hide !!!

good luck to everyone for your storms hopefully you'll get them and i wont

Swap houses with Harry, then you'll be perfectly safe!

[wkdfraggle]

totally agree with you ,

.This was the main reason for me learning about the weather to conquer my fear of storms but no it hasn't!!

But with my lovely nw radar and can tell if a storm going to miss me or if i should hide !!!

good luck to everyone for your storms hopefully you'll get them and i wont

This is exactly why i am trying to learn more about it - i love looking at lightening ... absolutely fascinating!! But storms fear me to death. I thought i was a bit weird trying to learn about it when it scares me to death lol

[Harry]

WOW - good on you MW lol! NW's very own Estofex Liaison Officer (ELO) lol - or Electric Light Orchestra, which ever you prefer, though both seem to have a pretty good relation to severe weather (I think the E.L.O is quite a pleasant metaphor for a T'storm thinking about it)

Will be very interested to see if this updates tomorrow - or, if heaven forbid, they are right (though cant see it based on current indications)

Swap houses with Harry, then you'll be perfectly safe!

YES...YES , get driving you can have my bed for the night, no probs! Am bored of the calm, warm evenings, with black clouds passing so tantalisingly close with naff all occurring, lol. Though having said, I still have something telling me I may get to see something - whether its over head or sprites/jets from the storms over Norfolk, who knows

Edited June 14, 2009 by Harry

[03jtrickey]

NOTHING FROM ESTOFEX???!!!!

http://estofex.org/

[A.J]

Hi Nick, I emailed ESTOFEX about their seemingly poor forecasting of recent times, namely Wednesday and Saturday when there were widespread storms across England & Wales and then Ireland/Scotland respectively. This is the reply i received from Oscar Van Der Velde:

Thank you for your feedback.

On the day you mentioned, Wednesday, when thunderstorms did occur in the UK, our forecaster for that day had indicated a low probability thunder line in the correct area over the UK. We draw internally two extra lines of probability besides the line the visitors see. Probability lines are going for the moment through a test period before we publish them instead of the old thunder line. The forecaster of Wednesday had the choice of thunderstorms or no thunderstorms, and apparently chose the latter despite acknowledging there was some chance. As you noticed, probably also in previous years, the forecasts are rather hit or miss for your area. With the new probability lines we will start to publish soon you can expect to see us highlight the area with at least a low probability line whenever there is reasonable chance for deep convection, which is likely more frequently than the present single thunder line, which will be phased out soon (see the FAQ).

On Thursday, our forecaster had drawn the thunder line only for most eastern parts of the UK, and according to the EUCLID data we use for verification, it matched pretty well with what occurred. He did extend the internal low probability thunder line beyond that of the conventional line to include a large part of the UK.

For today, I agree with you that there is a reasonable chance of thunderstorms for Ireland and Scotland. Personally I would have drawn a thunder line. Our forecaster for today did mark the area with a low probability thunder line, which for the moment is still hidden for the public. I would say that based on the present 12Z soundings and GFS, there is a chance of spouts for Ireland and Scotland, although, convergence zones are not well developed today in GFS.

best regards,

Oscar van der Velde

European Storm Forecast Experiment

If thats not a 300 word+ definition of the term 'Sitting on the fence' then I dont know what is!!!

[maidstone weather]

WOW - good on you MW lol! NW's very own Estofex Liaison Officer (ELO) lol - or Electric Light Orchestra, which ever you prefer, though both seem to have a pretty good relation to severe weather.

Will be very interested to see if this updates tomorrow - or, if heaven forbid, they are right (though cant see it based on current indications)

I was tempted to ask them if they can arrange extra storms for the Southeast, but thought i better not!

[Nick F]

Hi Nick, I emailed ESTOFEX about their seemingly poor forecasting of recent times, namely Wednesday and Saturday when there were widespread storms across England & Wales and then Ireland/Scotland respectively. This is the reply i received from Oscar Van Der Velde:

Lol ... thanks for that. Note: must try harder - look at CAPE charts and put t-storm area where CAPE values area above 100 j/kg = easy.

Having said that they have a large area to cover and do a pretty good job concentrating/forecasting the severe stuff over mainland Europe, but have tended to overlook the non-severe stuff around the peripheries.

[maidstone weather]

Lol ... thanks for that. Note: must try harder - look at CAPE charts and put t-storm area where CAPE values area above 100 j/kg = easy.

Having said that they have a large area to cover and do a pretty good job concentrating/forecasting the severe stuff over mainland Europe, but have tended to overlook the non-severe stuff around the peripheries.

But they admit that their accuracy is poorest over the UK? So surely they should try and improve it by including us in their forecast when there is a high chance of storms (eg 70% risk according to GFS)

[Gordon]

totally agree with you ,

I have a 71% chance of storm tom and would be very happy to exchange houses with someone with a no risk ,

I realise that most of the people on here absolutely love a good lightning storm and i'd love to be one of them but i'm not i'm astophobic, and have been all my life.This was the main reason for me learning about the weather to conquer my fear of storms but no it hasn't!!

But with my lovely nw radar and can tell if a storm going to miss me or if i should hide !!!

good luck to everyone for your storms hopefully you'll get them and i wont

Agreed

Hoping everybody gets what they want

that includes a dull boring day for me

PS - Hi Donna

[wkdfraggle]

I thought it was weakening, but it looks good still on the radar. Give it another 20 mins and I'll be able to see it!

Eased off here now - heading your way.

[Harry]

But they admit that their accuracy is poorest over the UK? So surely they should try and improve it by including us in their forecast when there is a high chance of storms (eg 70% risk according to GFS)

That does make me giggle, especially when it's all in English, lol

Wonder if Mr Dahl has a big, fat probability line around the SE

Edited June 14, 2009 by Harry

[maidstone weather]

That does make me giggle, especially when it's all in English, lol

Wonder if Mr Dahl has a big, fat probability line around the SE

it was him that issued the forecast on Saturday without Ireland/Scotland on the map, hence i asked. Clearly Dahl doesn't like the UK